9873210 wrote:Julian wrote:The escape from this, if media rumours are to be believed, is a plan to exempt the fully vaccinated from self-isolation when contact traced, I think instead recommending daily testing for some number of days (lateral flow? PCR? No idea).
Daily test numbers are about a million. At some point you will run out of tests so you can't test instead of isolate. I suspect the capacity to trace will be overwhelmed at some lower level. In any case somewhere below 100,000 cases a day you reach a point where you either lock down or do nothing and let covid spread unconstrained.
Even if you could trace with 100,000 cases a day the exposed population will be so large there is little difference between "trace and isolate" and "lockdown".
With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock). That's why I said I wasn't sure if they would go lateral flow or PCR if they do this. The problem with lateral flow is reduced accuracy especially on false negatives but the issues with PCR are as you mention so my suspicion is that if self-isolation for the contact-traced is replaced by daily testing advice for maybe 7 days after notification of exposure then it will be via home-administered lateral flow tests. (I use the word "advice" since if it is home lateral flow testing that is desired I can't see how the government can mandate it with any hope of enforcing such a mandate.)
On tracing a lot of people at least in my circle do respond to calls to self-isolate from the NHS tracing app so there is no human element to overload there but maybe my network of friends is unrepresentative. I certainly also know lots of people who don't use the tracing app, or rather have it installed but with the contact tracing feature disabled so they only use it for venue check-ins (that is what I do).
- Julian