The Lemon Fool

servodude wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
isn't there a general social and economic 'pattern' to these multi-wave impacts that means India was always going to experience the type of larger 'secondary-wave' that almost every other major country has also experienced, as seen from the above link?

Given the above, instead of us asking 'Why is this happening in India?', I'd almost be more interested in someone trying to convince me why it shouldn't be, given the above 'multi-wave' global comparisons....

Agreed! Though I'd say "very likely" rather than "always"

The general pattern could be described as "complacency when there aren't sufficient guards/policies in place" ? - that would match with just about everywhere on the list

If the whole world printed t-shirts in February of last year, which simply said -

'Individual countries will only take this seriously when we each start to run out of hospital beds and oxygen'

then we wouldn't have gone too far wrong....

There's an interesting thread elsewhere asking 'What can we do better next time?', and I suspect the single largest benefit would be in not having to cross that line next time, and collectively taking it much more seriously without having to start denying people access to hospital beds or those crucial oxygen supplies....

By definition, it's too late by then....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

servodude wrote:
There are a few things in the "shouldn't be" column that are interesting:

- antibody testing after the last wave suggested a good degree of immunity in places that are again being hit hard

- it's spring heading in to summer - and there's a persistent belief that this should have ameliorated the spread

Yes - on paper both of those 'science-based' issues could/should have delivered benefits, but I think it's interesting that both of those aspects as you've written them could also help to explain a possible 'wider social release' that might well be fighting against any 'science-based benefit', and at a level in India that's difficult for that 'science-based benefit' to actually counteract...

Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:
Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Indeed there is. We even get the odd one here on TLF. Remember johnhemming?

Over in "The Combustion Chamber" (forum for gas engineers) I'd say a good 25% of posters still think coronavirus is a load of old tosh; a construct of a lying government made up to justify higher levels of population control. So never mind herd immunity, there are plenty of people about who still don't believe there is a problem in the first place.

Itsallaguess wrote:

servodude wrote:
There are a few things in the "shouldn't be" column that are interesting:

- antibody testing after the last wave suggested a good degree of immunity in places that are again being hit hard

- it's spring heading in to summer - and there's a persistent belief that this should have ameliorated the spread

Yes - on paper both of those 'science-based' issues could/should have delivered benefits, but I think it's interesting that both of those aspects as you've written them could also help to explain a possible 'wider social release' that might well be fighting against any 'science-based benefit', and at a level in India that's difficult for that 'science-based benefit' to actually counteract...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Totally agree

I've been dubious about both cases (or certainly on putting too much weight on them) for quite a long time
- "seasonality" has always seemed much more to do with how people behave (and travel!) at different times in the year (e.g school holidays, religious festivals) than the weather
- and the second wave in Manaus discredited the "we've had it already, it's over" thinking

....but the effects of unfettered mixing (or abandoning restrictions) in a country of over a Billion people will have plenty of scope of overwhelming any attempt at predicting what's going to happen

We still need to be mindful of the fact that there is the chance that previously obtained immunity might be being circumvented by whatever is circulating - as that is what has direct implications elsewhere

- sd

Mike4 wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Indeed there is. We even get the odd one here on TLF. Remember johnhemming?

Over in "The Combustion Chamber" (forum for gas engineers) I'd say a good 25% of posters still think coronavirus is a load of old tosh; a construct of a lying government made up to justify higher levels of population control. So never mind herd immunity, there are plenty of people about who still don't believe there is a problem in the first place.

"Cases have peaked in Mumbai today" ???

- sd

Itsallaguess wrote:

servodude wrote:
There are a few things in the "shouldn't be" column that are interesting:

- antibody testing after the last wave suggested a good degree of immunity in places that are again being hit hard

- it's spring heading in to summer - and there's a persistent belief that this should have ameliorated the spread

Yes - on paper both of those 'science-based' issues could/should have delivered benefits, but I think it's interesting that both of those aspects as you've written them could also help to explain a possible 'wider social release' that might well be fighting against any 'science-based benefit', and at a level in India that's difficult for that 'science-based benefit' to actually counteract...

Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Covid and other viruses are assumed to be spread less in the Spring and Summer because, based on European type behaviour, when the weather warms up, people spend more time outside, throw the windows open for more ventilation dissipating the virus, and expose themselves to the sun, thus generating vital Vitamin D.

The Indian response to hot sunny weather is the opposite to the European. It is combined with high levels of atmospheric pollution in the cities, which cuts the strength of the sun's rays, and a diet generally very poor in Vitamin D. John Campbell's video a couple of days ago highlighted a study of two years ago which showed that Indians generally have very low Vitamin D levels.

I haven't seen the antibody testing data for India. I cannot believe it is likely to be remotely accurate.

servodude wrote:
We still need to be mindful of the fact that there is the chance that previously obtained immunity might be being circumvented by whatever is circulating - as that is what has direct implications elsewhere

Oh absolutely - but that's why I originally posted this morning with regards to the WorldoMeter site, having noticed in recent days that whilst the infection numbers coming out of India are still staggering in size, there does seem to be some movement in recent days that might 'seem' to indicate that it might be more 'it's your second wave time', rather than 'bloody hell that particular variant is scary' -



Source - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

I say 'seem', because of course it's highly likely that there's a massive amount of noise in the current India numbers, simply down to the devastating wave that the health authorities are having to cope with, and so it's probably far too early to tell which way the road is going to go at this particular point, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on the above chart over the coming days and weeks, to try and get a feel on which is the largely underlying driver here - un-dodgeable wave, or brutal variant....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Nimrod103 wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:

servodude wrote:
There are a few things in the "shouldn't be" column that are interesting:

- antibody testing after the last wave suggested a good degree of immunity in places that are again being hit hard

- it's spring heading in to summer - and there's a persistent belief that this should have ameliorated the spread

Yes - on paper both of those 'science-based' issues could/should have delivered benefits, but I think it's interesting that both of those aspects as you've written them could also help to explain a possible 'wider social release' that might well be fighting against any 'science-based benefit', and at a level in India that's difficult for that 'science-based benefit' to actually counteract...

Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Covid and other viruses are assumed to be spread less in the Spring and Summer because, based on European type behaviour, when the weather warms up, people spend more time outside, throw the windows open for more ventilation dissipating the virus, and expose themselves to the sun, thus generating vital Vitamin D.

The Indian response to hot sunny weather is the opposite to the European. It is combined with high levels of atmospheric pollution in the cities, which cuts the strength of the sun's rays, and a diet generally very poor in Vitamin D. John Campbell's video a couple of days ago highlighted a study of two years ago which showed that Indians generally have very low Vitamin D levels.

I remember the main justification for the seasonality given in these fora being "relative humidity"
- all behavioural aspects were dismissed I know! it was quite nonsense.

Nimrod103 wrote:I haven't seen the antibody testing data for India. I cannot believe it is likely to be remotely accurate.

Why would that be?

It was considered sufficiently accurate for inclusion in this meta analysis published in the lancet

- and does look as though they had had quite a bit of exposure in the first pass of the virus

- sd

Itsallaguess wrote:I say 'seem', because of course it's highly likely that there's a massive amount of noise in the current India numbers, simply down to the devastating wave that the health authorities are having to cope with, and so it's probably far too early to tell which way the road is going to go at this particular point, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on the above chart over the coming days and weeks, to try and get a feel on which is the largely underlying driver here - un-dodgeable wave, or brutal variant....

Look, I'm getting fed up agreeing with someone - can you not post something senseless?

I hope it turns around for them really quickly

- sd

servodude wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
Yes - on paper both of those 'science-based' issues could/should have delivered benefits, but I think it's interesting that both of those aspects as you've written them could also help to explain a possible 'wider social release' that might well be fighting against any 'science-based benefit', and at a level in India that's difficult for that 'science-based benefit' to actually counteract...

Maybe India have their own issues with people telling everyone 'it's all fine - herd immunity etc...' - there's lots of them about!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Covid and other viruses are assumed to be spread less in the Spring and Summer because, based on European type behaviour, when the weather warms up, people spend more time outside, throw the windows open for more ventilation dissipating the virus, and expose themselves to the sun, thus generating vital Vitamin D.

The Indian response to hot sunny weather is the opposite to the European. It is combined with high levels of atmospheric pollution in the cities, which cuts the strength of the sun's rays, and a diet generally very poor in Vitamin D. John Campbell's video a couple of days ago highlighted a study of two years ago which showed that Indians generally have very low Vitamin D levels.

I remember the main justification for the seasonality given in these fora being "relative humidity"
- all behavioural aspects were dismissed I know! it was quite nonsense.

This is a very dry part of the Indian year. Humidity does not start rising until June/July and leads to the monsoon.

servodude wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:I haven't seen the antibody testing data for India. I cannot believe it is likely to be remotely accurate.

Why would that be?

It was considered sufficiently accurate for inclusion in this meta analysis published in the lancet

- and does look as though they had had quite a bit of exposure in the first pass of the virus

- sd

India is a vast country with ghettos, odd religious groups, tribes - all kinds of things. Huge numbers of people go about their lives unreported and un-investigated. Very difficult to get an overall picture of beviour and medical history. e.g. the limited amount of Covid testing is showing up only a very small proportion of the number of actual cases, and that IMHO is likely to be concentrated in just a few geographical and/or socio-economic groupings. After all, journalists are suggesting that the Govt is under-reporting the Covid death rate by 75% at present. That is just the way India works.

servodude wrote:
I hope it turns around for them really quickly

From the BBC this morning -

No lockdown in Gujarat despite growing cases -

It's not a hopeful picture in the Indian state of Gujarat, which is governed by India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Cases and deaths have been steadily rising - it had added about 14,300 cases and 170 deaths in 24 hours as of Tuesday night. But the numbers, especially the death toll, could be far higher since local news reports have contradicted official figures for weeks now.

Just getting hold of an ambulance is a demanding task - it takes between two to 48 hours just to book one through the emergency hotline.

And they have no other choice - should they arrive in a private vehicle, they are not admitted. As a result, some people have died outside hospitals.

Despite all this the government has refused to implement a lockdown, saying there is no scientific basis to prove that lockdowns stop the spread of the virus and that lockdowns harm the economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-56890174

On the face of it, that doesn't feel like an approach that might help one of the largest and most populous countries on the planet dodge that 'inevitable second wave' that almost all other countries have sadly already been through...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:Despite all this the government has refused to implement a lockdown.....On the face of it, that doesn't feel like an approach that might help one of the largest and most populous countries on the planet dodge that 'inevitable second wave' that almost all other countries have sadly already been through...

When one considers the misfortunes of individuals, one feels sorry for them.
But as a nation, India is a bit of a disgrace.
And writing as someone who is more than slightly concerned about the excessive human population, I cannot but be aware of their birth rate, with the population pre-Covid rising by 17,000,000 (seventeen million) in the year 2020/21.

A bit of a lot of a total disgrace.

V8

I raised the point a few days ago that the India charts, whilst still absolutely horrendous of course, seemed to indicate some degree of levelling off, and there's confirmation from elsewhere that this may indeed be the case in the coming weeks -

Experts suggest current data predicts deaths in India could peak at up to 14,000 a day.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle has predicted that the death toll will continue to rise, peaking at almost 14,000 on May 16.

Director Dr Christopher Murray warned “there’s a lot of bad times ahead” for India as infections are close to their peak next week.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real- ... 1db9e8f357

Latest WorldoMeters cases-chart from this morning -



Source - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Lootman wrote:Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

Morocco

The most recent seven-day rolling average chart (darker line below) is showing a marked slowing down in new COVID cases for India -



Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57006390

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:The most recent seven-day rolling average chart (darker line below) is showing a marked slowing down in new COVID cases for India -

That would be expected at some point, as the percentage of the population who are vulnerable reduces. As happens when people develop antibodies, whether through infection or vaccination. The early stages of a move to herd immunity.

That might very well be happening to a statistically-significant extent in infection hot-spots.

UncleEbenezer wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:The most recent seven-day rolling average chart (darker line below) is showing a marked slowing down in new COVID cases for India -

That would be expected at some point, as the percentage of the population who are vulnerable reduces. As happens when people develop antibodies, whether through infection or vaccination. The early stages of a move to herd immunity.

That might very well be happening to a statistically-significant extent in infection hot-spots.

Far more likely to be due to changes in behaviour.

20 million Indians is not enough to develop herd immunity. Even if cases are undercounted by a factor of ten it's not enough to have much effect.
This matters because if the bend is caused by changes in behaviour and you revert to normal lots more people get sick and die.

New concerns as Indian Covid variant clusters found across England

The Guardian

Exclusive: Leaked emails show Public Health England assessment of ongoing risk from B16172 variant is ‘high’

But...
"The documents reveal 15 cases of B16172 were found in one London care home where residents had their second doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in the week prior to the outbreak. Four of the cases were hospitalised with non-severe illness, and there were no deaths."

Some new information coming from the BBC this morning with regards to some additional granularity in what's previously been called 'the Indian variant' -

Public health experts have recommended a version of the Indian Covid variant found in the UK to be made a "variant of concern", the BBC has been told.

Public Health England (PHE) has been tracking a variant known as B.1.617.2, which appears to have been spreading more quickly in the UK than others. Scientists believe it is more transmissible than the version of Covid first discovered in Wuhan, China. A spokesman for PHE said it would not comment on leaked data.

The Kent, South Africa and Brazil strains have all been deemed "variants of concern" in the UK. These versions, along with the India variant, have all undergone changes to their spike protein - the part of the virus which attaches to human cells.

The original India variant - officially known as B.1.617 - was first detected in the country in October. That version has now been re-characterised as three different subtypes, all with slightly different genetic mutations.

The UK has seen a sharp increase in one version in particular, known as B.1.617.2, which now makes up the majority of all Indian variant cases and appears to be growing faster than other versions.

PHE scientists think with "moderate confidence" that it spreads at least as quickly as the version of the virus first found in Kent last year - known as B.1.1.7 - which is currently dominant in the UK.

But a source has told the BBC there is no evidence this version of the Indian variant is resistant to current vaccines. It does not feature the E.484K mutation found in the South African variant of the virus, which could help the virus dodge a person's immune system and may affect how well coronavirus vaccines work.

It is believed that more than 500 cases of B.1.617.2 have now been detected across England with the highest levels in London and the north-west of England. That would represent a sharp rise from the 202 cases officially recorded by PHE in the UK as of 28 April.

It is not known how many of the current infections in the UK can be linked back to international travel. However, it is thought there has already been some evidence of "significant" community transmission, mainly linked to workplaces and religions gatherings.

In one cluster at a care home, 14 elderly residents who have all been vaccinated were infected with the variant, the source said. A number needed hospital treatment but not for severe disease, and it is thought all have now recovered.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57016110

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:Some new information coming from the BBC this morning with regards to some additional granularity in what's previously been called 'the Indian variant'

going to be hard at this point to ascertain whether it's outcompeting the Kent variant through genetic advantage or whether it's just appearing in circulation at the right time to take advantage of regulations relaxing

Itsallaguess wrote:In one cluster at a care home, 14 elderly residents who have all been vaccinated were infected with the variant, the source said. A number needed hospital treatment but not for severe disease, and it is thought all have now recovered.

- Fank thuck for that ray of hope!

I'm hoping that there will soon be data to suggest that the India variant with the "eek" mutation is similarly beaten by vaccination

- sd