The Lemon Fool

redsturgeon wrote:Today my daughter gets news that her friend had got symptoms a couple of days ago and has now tested positive again.

We do know that the testing process is not that reliable.

johnhemming wrote:

swill453 wrote:
Not sure I follow that. Are you saying people dying from the disease now could have caught it in the summer and not died if we hadn't had a lockdown?

A mixture of two things

a) If a lot of people catch it who are asymptomatic and get resistance then it would spread less readily in the winter.

b) Those that catch it with a lower viral load (summer) don't suffer as bad an infection, but do get resistance.

The flip-side to that type of thinking, of course, is that treatment for those suffering badly from COVID is now much better understood and managed, in ways that weren't apparent or available during the initial wave that required heavier lock-downs...

So I don't think it's as simple as taking the view that an earlier and broader 'summer' infection rate might have built up wider immunity levels to now help prevent further 'winter' infections - there's an awful lot of plates spinning with regards to this thing, and it's going to be nearly impossible to make those types of 'comparisons' in an accurate manner...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I think the clue to John's friend's Covid infection might lie in the fact that he has seven children, some of whom are likely to be in their teens and (if they are anything like two of my grandchildren) socialising with their friends without much thought of distancing etc. and possibly picking up the infection without showing any symptoms and passing it on to parents.

As regards Vitamin D and Zinc, yes they do support the immune system and research has shown that there is a link between Vit. D deficiency and lung diseases inter alia, without coming to any conclusion as to which is cause and which effect, but one professor who has been in charge of recent research into this subject seems to think it is illness which causes the deficiency rather than the other way round. Not saying he is right and there is a lot of research currently going on which is as yet inconclusive. Incidentally, stress can also have a bad effect on one's immune system and there must be a lot of stress around. I read this week that a lot of Covid patients admitted to hospital are shown to have Vit. D deficiency but I don't think it has been suggested that a normal Vit D level would prevent infection, rather than help you deal with it. Today a report in The Times is saying that a trial in Spain involved giving 76 Covid patients Vit D or a placebo. 13 out of 26 on placebo ended up in intensive care whereas only 1 out of 50 who received Vid D required IC. Larger trials are required for more detail but sounds a good enough reason for GP surgeries to advise all patients on their list to take a regular supplement, at least during Autumn and Winter, and point out that the over 50s need a bigger dose than younger patients, partly because they absorb it less readily and partly because they often spend less time outdoors so have less opportunity to absorb it from sunlight. I don't think it would do any harm to test levels from time to time either; so much cheaper than treating the various problems deficiency causes. And for goodness sake, don't stop testing at 70. I was about to say it was time someone produced a self-test kit for Vit. D but thought I'd Google to see if they already had and lo and behold, several are advertised on Amazon. Does anyone have any experience of these and know which is reliable? I'd buy one like a shot.

I don't see anything paranoid about taking sensible precautions. Only an idiot goes out if a hurricane is forecast and if the forecast turns out to be wrong, so what? Just be thankful. Does it matter if you missed a few beers with your mates in the pub? And if you are worried about the pub surviving, arrange to buy food and drink from them to consume at home. There is plenty of entertainment available at home now if one has time to avail oneself of it; being housebound for a while should not be the end of the world whereas Covid could be. And if, as seems to be the case, immunity after infection doesn't last long, why not be sensible until we have a vaccine that is proven to work? Christmas, admittedly, is going to be a big problem.

Itsallaguess wrote:So I don't think it's as simple as taking the view that a broader 'summer' infection rate might have built up wider immunity levels to now help prevent further 'winter' infections

We do have control experiments such as Sweden, Lativa and Belarus which are low intervention countries where we will be able to see after the end of the coronavirus season whether they have done better in terms of deaths from Covid than the high intervention countries (in the Northern Hemisphere).

johnhemming wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
So I don't think it's as simple as taking the view that a broader 'summer' infection rate might have built up wider immunity levels to now help prevent further 'winter' infections

We do have control experiments such as Sweden, Lativa and Belarus which are low intervention countries where we will be able to see after the end of the coronavirus season whether they have done better in terms of deaths from Covid than the high intervention countries (in the Northern Hemisphere).

That 'comparison' only goes so far though...

Whilst it might be easy to compare 'intervention-protocols', it's going to be much, much more difficult to compare adherence to them, and I suspect that the wider cultural willingness for strong and prolonged adherence to local protocols, or simply the inherent 'common sense' to continue to do 'the right things' whilst this issue is being dealt with, are likely to go some way to help explain the differences between different results in different countries, so again, there's more variables than are often put forward as 'evidence' in these types of discussions...

Take two football matches - one between two well-behaved teams and one between two teams of thugs...

The first match results in no yellow cards, and the other sees two players sent off and five yellow cards also produced over the course of the game.

And yet both matches were being played under the same rules of the game...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

redsturgeon wrote:That's just about the most blatant case of "whataboutism" I've seen for a long time.

And the "Tell that to" trick isn't?

People die John. It's the way of the world. All deaths are sad, but none of the deaths over the last few weeks have been excessive for the time of year. Therefore pulling out some people because they happen to have something on their death certificate doesn't tell us anything about the aggregate. It's just emotional manipulation.

Bouleversee wrote: Only an idiot goes out if a hurricane is forecast

I've forecast a hurricane. Presumably then you won't be going out.

I'll be correct of course because the behaviour alterations ensures it won't happen, and if it happens then of course you will be safe by the behaviour change.

Win/Win all round.

Lootman wrote:Forecasts are just that - the opinion and prediction of some expert. How we respond to that dictates our measure of paranoia or complacency.

Or our measure of realism or denial?

NeilW wrote:

redsturgeon wrote:That's just about the most blatant case of "whataboutism" I've seen for a long time.

And the "Tell that to" trick isn't?

People die John. It's the way of the world. All deaths are sad, but none of the deaths over the last few weeks have been excessive for the time of year.

And (what about!) the next "few weeks"?

NeilW wrote:Therefore pulling out some people because they happen to have something on their death certificate doesn't tell us anything about the aggregate. It's just emotional manipulation.

But whereas some of the things on some people's death certificates are indeed normal for "the time of year", some of the things on other people's death certificates are not normal for "the time of year" and, being due to something highly infectious, could be turning up soon on yet other people's death certificates. Apart from causing lots of other people to occupy hospital beds, that would otherwise be available to the people who need them at "this time of year", or otherwise.

Why do some people still seem to find this so difficult to get to grips with? (Or, in other words: It isn't all about YOU)

XFool wrote:[
But whereas some of the things on some people's death certificates are indeed normal for "the time of year", some of the things on other people's death certificates are not normal for "the time of year"

Death from pneumonia caused by respiratory virus is normal for the time of year. The hospital occupancy is normal for the time of year. The number of deaths is normal for the time of year.

Euromomo is recording no excess on their z-scores across the whole of the British isles at present.

You tell me where the issue is here.

NeilW wrote:
Death from pneumonia caused by respiratory virus is normal for the time of year. The hospital occupancy is normal for the time of year. The number of deaths is normal for the time of year.

Euromomo is recording no excess on their z-scores across the whole of the British isles at present.

You tell me where the issue is here.

There is no issue.

That shows that the current protocols are working as they're meant to be..

What did you think they're supposed to be doing?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

NeilW wrote:

XFool wrote:[
But whereas some of the things on some people's death certificates are indeed normal for "the time of year", some of the things on other people's death certificates are not normal for "the time of year"

Death from pneumonia caused by respiratory virus is normal for the time of year. The hospital occupancy is normal for the time of year. The number of deaths is normal for the time of year.

Euromomo is recording no excess on their z-scores across the whole of the British isles at present.

So, if I'd looked at this Euromomo z-scores thingy on say 6 March 2020, there wouldn't have been any problem then. So... What? No such thing as the 2020 coronovirus pandemic? It didn't happen. We've all been had!

I repeat here my full sentence that you partially quoted from:
"But whereas some of the things on some people's death certificates are indeed normal for "the time of year", some of the things on other people's death certificates are not normal for "the time of year" and, being due to something highly infectious, could be turning up soon on yet other people's death certificates. Apart from causing lots of other people to occupy hospital beds, that would otherwise be available to the people who need them at "this time of year", or otherwise."

NeilW wrote:You tell me where the issue is here.

I don't believe I can.

NeilW wrote:

Bouleversee wrote: Only an idiot goes out if a hurricane is forecast

I've forecast a hurricane. Presumably then you won't be going out.

I'll be correct of course because the behaviour alterations ensures it won't happen, and if it happens then of course you will be safe by the behaviour change.

Win/Win all round.

If you were a professional weather forecaster I certainly wouldn't but if you were a silly old denier (or whatever those people who don't accept the truth are called) I would ignore you. As it happens, however, since I am in the highly vulnerable category, I am not going anywhere and haven't been since Covid arrived in the UK. I did have the odd visitor, sitting at the other end of my 10ft garden table and a couple of times, when we thought we were on top of things, inside at an equally long table but now things are regressing and having just received a posted circular from my local council (that must have cost a pretty penny) telling me that infection rates are rising locally, initially in those under 30m but now spreading into the older population, and giving instructions on how to behave in order to avoid being moved to a higher tier of restrictions, I shall comply and, the garden
being less demanding now, get on with my tax return and getting my affairs and house in order. It's amazing how quickly the time passes when you are having fun! Who knows, I may even find time to read something for pleasure rather than information for a change.

Bouleversee wrote:If you were a professional weather forecaster

How do you know they are? Because they have credentials you believe in that you have never checked? That's just a different form of priesthood then.

It always boils down to who watches the watchers. And in the current situation anybody who say "we don't really know" probably has the right answer.

Itsallaguess wrote:That shows that the current protocols are working as they're meant to be..

But in Sweden they are doing even better with no such protocols. So logically it can't be that can it.

Correlation and causation again.

NeilW wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:If you were a professional weather forecaster

How do you know they are? Because they have credentials you believe in that you have never checked? That's just a different form of priesthood then.

I've never personally checked out the existence of Australia. I defer to the "priesthood" of geographers.

I reckon all these dudes with funny accents, and called 'Bruce', are a distraction sent to confuse us, by The Powers That Be.

Bouleversee wrote:(or whatever those people who don't accept the truth are called)

They call themselves "truthers".


Julian F. G. W.

NeilW wrote:Euromomo is recording no excess on their z-scores across the whole of the British isles at present.

Euromomo is slightly delayed and deaths are slightly delayed on hospital admissions. Hence it is possible that there will be a slight increase in excess mortality, but it is not demonstrated as yet.

NeilW wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
That shows that the current protocols are working as they're meant to be..

But in Sweden they are doing even better with no such protocols. So logically it can't be that can it.

Correlation and causation again.

But just because the Swedish protocols might be much 'lighter' than other countries, it doesn't mean the Swedish population necessarily behave in exactly the same way as they've always done...

The country [of Sweden] did not ignore the threat entirely. Although stores and restaurants remained open, many Swedes stayed home, at rates similar to their European neighbours, surveys and mobile phone data suggest.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

I personally think that Sweden is a good example of where community-minded people, educated about the issues we're facing, along with the risks and how they can be minimised, might be able to behave in a way that helps avoid wider transmission of this virus without the need for the Swedish Government to impose actual laws to do so...

Couple that with other countries that might impose the laws and stricter protocols, but where populations might not engage with them as actively as they should do, and it might well describe the mess we all collectively find ourselves..

Again - it's no good just comparing countries and their difference protocols - we really do need to bring people and cultural behaviours into the comparison as well, and that's very tricky to do with the data currently at hand...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Meanwhile:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/10/28 ... -news-176/

SAGE Predicts Second Wave Will Be Worse Than First
By Will Jones*

Chris Whitty stares at his latest Graph of Doom

"The Government has been caught using secret, non-peer-reviewed SAGE modelling again. When’s it going to learn? The Telegraph has the exclusive."

"...The report continues (though fails to mention that the 367 deaths reported yesterday followed two days of 102 and 151 so that the average has not risen by much)."

That's OK then! (Or, then again: It's doubled?) - "It's science Jim, but not as we know it."

I declare 'Cult Status' has now been achieved. It's official!

This is 2020.


* This Will Jones?

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/author/willjones/

I have no idea, but, if I had to guess...

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/category/covid19/