Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[XFool]

Interesting - with only a little bit of statistics:

Dominic Cummings: What was on his whiteboard?

BBC News

Before giving evidence to MPs on the handling of the pandemic, Dominic Cummings, former adviser to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, tweeted this photo of the whiteboard used to plan the government's early response.

"Here, we unpick what it reveals about the priorities, thoughts and policy-by-whiteboard scramble of the government, as it tried to react to the fast-developing crisis."

[XFool]

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist

BBC News

There are signs the UK is in the early stages of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a scientist advising the government has said.

"Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said although new cases were "relatively low" the Indian variant had fuelled "exponential growth"."

[XFool]

A fascination:

Do people believe Covid myths?
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

The Guardian

Misinformation could be causing real harm in the community

"University of Cambridge researchers found in an online survey that about 15% of UK respondents thought it was more reliable than not that “the coronavirus is part of a global effort to enforce mandatory vaccination”, while 9% supported “the new 5G network may be making us more susceptible to the virus”. They found the most important factor linked to resilience to misinformation was numeracy."

[1nvest]

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist

BBC News

There are signs the UK is in the early stages of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a scientist advising the government has said.

"Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said although new cases were "relatively low" the Indian variant had fuelled "exponential growth"."

But if a third don't even know they've have/had it, a third have snivels, and a third spend a few days in bed, a small number of which end up hospitalised ... but very few die, then the risks are no more, perhaps even lower than that from the flu.

It's the death toll that is the more meaningful figure nowadays, along with not too many being hospitalised to overburden the NHS. It's not going to go away, something we just have to live with.

Without the vaccine, the UK 2020 death count was comparable/lower (proportionately) to that of 1976 - the year of a heat wave. Such above average death count years are a natural event, very rarely are individual samples precisely aligned to the average, individual samples tend to be above or below the broader average.

[redsturgeon]

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist

BBC News

There are signs the UK is in the early stages of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a scientist advising the government has said.

"Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said although new cases were "relatively low" the Indian variant had fuelled "exponential growth"."

But if a third don't even know they've have/had it, a third have snivels, and a third spend a few days in bed, a small number of which end up hospitalised ... but very few die, then the risks are no more, perhaps even lower than that from the flu.

It's the death toll that is the more meaningful figure nowadays, along with not too many being hospitalised to overburden the NHS. It's not going to go away, something we just have to live with.

Without the vaccine, the UK 2020 death count was comparable/lower (proportionately) to that of 1976 - the year of a heat wave. Such above average death count years are a natural event, very rarely are individual samples precisely aligned to the average, individual samples tend to be above or below the broader average.

And probably would have been three or four times higher if we had put no lockdown or any other precautions in place...so your point is?

John

[Nimrod103]

A fascination:

Do people believe Covid myths?
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

The Guardian

Misinformation could be causing real harm in the community

"University of Cambridge researchers found in an online survey that about 15% of UK respondents thought it was more reliable than not that “the coronavirus is part of a global effort to enforce mandatory vaccination”, while 9% supported “the new 5G network may be making us more susceptible to the virus”. They found the most important factor linked to resilience to misinformation was numeracy."

You may dismiss these views as dumb, as do I, but surely it is no worse than the WHO (including its British member Daszak) coming back from a closely controlled visit to China. They dismissed all theories about Covid origin except from wild food in a wet market.
Yet now there are strong rumours emanating from scientists and spooks that the virus may indeed have been manufactured in, and escaped from, the Wuhan lab.
It always pays to be sceptical.

[redsturgeon]

A fascination:

Do people believe Covid myths?
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

The Guardian

Misinformation could be causing real harm in the community

"University of Cambridge researchers found in an online survey that about 15% of UK respondents thought it was more reliable than not that “the coronavirus is part of a global effort to enforce mandatory vaccination”, while 9% supported “the new 5G network may be making us more susceptible to the virus”. They found the most important factor linked to resilience to misinformation was numeracy."

You may dismiss these views as dumb, as do I, but surely it is no worse than the WHO (including its British member Daszak) coming back from a closely controlled visit to China. They dismissed all theories about Covid origin except from wild food in a wet market.
Yet now there are strong rumours emanating from scientists and spooks that the virus may indeed have been manufactured in, and escaped from, the Wuhan lab.
It always pays to be sceptical.

Yes it pays to be sceptical, but it also pays to think critically about what you choose to believe.

John

[Nimrod103]

A fascination:

Do people believe Covid myths?
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

The Guardian

Misinformation could be causing real harm in the community

"University of Cambridge researchers found in an online survey that about 15% of UK respondents thought it was more reliable than not that “the coronavirus is part of a global effort to enforce mandatory vaccination”, while 9% supported “the new 5G network may be making us more susceptible to the virus”. They found the most important factor linked to resilience to misinformation was numeracy."

You may dismiss these views as dumb, as do I, but surely it is no worse than the WHO (including its British member Daszak) coming back from a closely controlled visit to China. They dismissed all theories about Covid origin except from wild food in a wet market.
Yet now there are strong rumours emanating from scientists and spooks that the virus may indeed have been manufactured in, and escaped from, the Wuhan lab.
It always pays to be sceptical.

Yes it pays to be sceptical, but it also pays to think critically about what you choose to believe.

John

True, but then from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place. It was always incredible, illogical and stupid to claim that the origin of the virus must have been in a wet market a hundred yards away from that lab. Yet the wet market theory was pushed by scientists and politicians alike, and dissenting voices were loudly shouted down. Until now.

[88V8]

True, but then from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place.

If that is the case, was it an escape, or a dry run to see how the developed world handled it.

So, after seeing the ensuing chaos, you decide to have another go; first you develop a more virulent virus, then you vaccinate your own population against it, then you launch it.

Let's hope it's just a fantasy.

V8

[murraypaul]

True, but then from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place.

If that is the case, was it an escape, or a dry run to see how the developed world handled it.

Which you decide to launch in your own country, right outside the lab that you developed it in?

[Mike4]

True, but then from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place.

If that is the case, was it an escape, or a dry run to see how the developed world handled it.

So, after seeing the ensuing chaos, you decide to have another go; first you develop a more virulent virus, then you vaccinate your own population against it, then you launch it.

Let's hope it's just a fantasy.

V8

There was/is a youtube doctor whose opinion all along has been it was a lab based virus escape. His views on this aired last summer were censored by youtube and many of his videos deleted, but his opinion was that yes SARS-CoV-2 is the result of experimental "gain of function' work, where abilities of viruses are artificially enhanced. He presented very detailed and well-thought-out evidence for believing this and that they had been infecting primates with it. His opinion is that the escape was very prosaic and accidental. There would have been heavy precautions against escape but humans being humans, not everyone followed the rules to the letter and keeper caught it. They went home without realising and infected their family, and off it went. Or something along those lines seems viable to me anyway.

[zico]

There was/is a youtube doctor whose opinion all along has been it was a lab based virus escape. His views on this aired last summer were censored by youtube and many of his videos deleted, but his opinion was that yes SARS-CoV-2 is the result of experimental "gain of function' work, where abilities of viruses are artificially enhanced. He presented very detailed and well-thought-out evidence for believing this and that they had been infecting primates with it. His opinion is that the escape was very prosaic and accidental. There would have been heavy precautions against escape but humans being humans, not everyone followed the rules to the letter and keeper caught it. They went home without realising and infected their family, and off it went. Or something along those lines seems viable to me anyway.

I don't see how it matters, because whether it came from a Chinese bat-cave or escaped from a Chinese lab, we aren't going to do anything different about it. If people just want to bash China, they should be careful because the Kent virus arose in the UK which is a lot more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus. If the UK had suppressed the Wuhan virus much more effectively, the Kent virus almost certainly wouldn't have developed. (Notably, there are no New Zealand variants causing worldwide problems).

As a side-issue, wasn't the £37 billion on "NHS" Test & Trace supposed to be the way we dealt with new variants of concern? What's happened to Dido Harding? It's all gone very quiet indeed, unless I'm just not looking in the right places for all the Test & Trace good news.

[Steveam]

This from the FT regarding Biden/US/Wuhan lab …

“Those efforts, coupled with a third “scrub” of the intelligence this year, led to Biden saying last week that two of the 18 branches of the intelligence community leaned towards the natural origin scenario, while a third was more inclined towards the lab-leak theory.

Biden said the three had only “low or moderate confidence” in their conclusions while the other branches did not have enough evidence. That has sparked concern that 90 days is not sufficient for intelligence officials to reach any solid determination.

“The community as a whole is far away from reaching anything that we could call even a halfway firm conclusion,” said Paul Pillar, a former senior CIA official. “The fact that many of the agencies involved have not reached a consensus even for a ‘low confidence’ judgment tells you they’re a long way away from anything conclusive.””

Although there is clearly room for further investigation (there always is) the tone of the FT article is that a) more scientists are willing to say the lab is a possibility and b) Biden needs to be seen to be being tough on China as he’s under Republican pressure. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence or even increased credibility to the lab theory but it’s certainly a possibility. Possibility is not probability. I’m not qualified to assess the evidence nor is it available to me so I’m happy that the investigation is taking place BUT the investigation of itself means nothing.

Best wishes,

Steve

[jfgw]

True, but then from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place.

If that is the case, was it an escape, or a dry run to see how the developed world handled it.

So, after seeing the ensuing chaos, you decide to have another go; first you develop a more virulent virus, then you vaccinate your own population against it, then you launch it.

Let's hope it's just a fantasy.

V8

The vaccines would have to be more effective than the current Chinese ones.


Julian F. G. W.

[redsturgeon]

There was/is a youtube doctor whose opinion all along has been it was a lab based virus escape. His views on this aired last summer were censored by youtube and many of his videos deleted, but his opinion was that yes SARS-CoV-2 is the result of experimental "gain of function' work, where abilities of viruses are artificially enhanced. He presented very detailed and well-thought-out evidence for believing this and that they had been infecting primates with it. His opinion is that the escape was very prosaic and accidental. There would have been heavy precautions against escape but humans being humans, not everyone followed the rules to the letter and keeper caught it. They went home without realising and infected their family, and off it went. Or something along those lines seems viable to me anyway.

I don't see how it matters, because whether it came from a Chinese bat-cave or escaped from a Chinese lab, we aren't going to do anything different about it. If people just want to bash China, they should be careful because the Kent virus arose in the UK which is a lot more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus. If the UK had suppressed the Wuhan virus much more effectively, the Kent virus almost certainly wouldn't have developed. (Notably, there are no New Zealand variants causing worldwide problems).

As a side-issue, wasn't the £37 billion on "NHS" Test & Trace supposed to be the way we dealt with new variants of concern? What's happened to Dido Harding? It's all gone very quiet indeed, unless I'm just not looking in the right places for all the Test & Trace good news.

While not disagreeing with your overall point I think we need to bit a little careful with our assumptions:

1. Are we sure the Kent variant arose in Kent or was it merely first recognised in Kent?

2. The Vietnam variant seems to have arisen in a country with very few cases relatively speaking.

There's a lot we can't be sure of.

John

[zico]

While not disagreeing with your overall point I think we need to bit a little careful with our assumptions:

1. Are we sure the Kent variant arose in Kent or was it merely first recognised in Kent?

2. The Vietnam variant seems to have arisen in a country with very few cases relatively speaking.

There's a lot we can't be sure of.
John

Yes, it's possible the "Kent variant" was merely first recognised in Kent, but the pattern of greater infectiousness in Kent in November strongly suggests that's where it arose. My point is that after a certain stage, it doesn't matter whether we're fighting against variants from Wuhan, Kent or India, what's important is how we deal with the virus and variants we currently have.

The Vietnam variant is a real statistical oddity, because cases there have been so low. (There was a theory that suppressing viruses simply encouraged variants to evolve to be more effective - the Vietnam variant would be the first actual evidence this could happen in practice. Other variants have arisen in areas with very high infection levels, as would be expected).

[GrahamPlatt]

The Vietnam variant is a real statistical oddity, because cases there have been so low. (There was a theory that suppressing viruses simply encouraged variants to evolve to be more effective - the Vietnam variant would be the first actual evidence this could happen in practice. Other variants have arisen in areas with very high infection levels, as would be expected).

It is odd going by your first point, because my understanding is that the virus is “autorecombinant” - whereby if an individual becomes infected by two strains simultaneously, this can result in hybridisation, and the “Vietnam”” virus has the characteristics of two already known variants, suggesting this as a mechanism. But the idea that “suppressing viruses” (by which I take you to mean reducing the caseload) results in the evolution of more “effective” variants - then no, I can’t see the mechanism.

[murraypaul]

Just had a text from my GP to book my second (AZ) shot, at what will only be 6 weeks after the first.
Mid 40s male, no relevant medical conditions.
Either they are more aggressively bringing second shots forward, or possibly my local GPs are running out of people to vaccinate.

[Mike4]

There was/is a youtube doctor whose opinion all along has been it was a lab based virus escape. His views on this aired last summer were censored by youtube and many of his videos deleted, but his opinion was that yes SARS-CoV-2 is the result of experimental "gain of function' work, where abilities of viruses are artificially enhanced. He presented very detailed and well-thought-out evidence for believing this and that they had been infecting primates with it. His opinion is that the escape was very prosaic and accidental. There would have been heavy precautions against escape but humans being humans, not everyone followed the rules to the letter and keeper caught it. They went home without realising and infected their family, and off it went. Or something along those lines seems viable to me anyway.

I don't see how it matters, because whether it came from a Chinese bat-cave or escaped from a Chinese lab, we aren't going to do anything different about it. If people just want to bash China, they should be careful because the Kent virus arose in the UK which is a lot more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus. If the UK had suppressed the Wuhan virus much more effectively, the Kent virus almost certainly wouldn't have developed. (Notably, there are no New Zealand variants causing worldwide problems).

As a side-issue, wasn't the £37 billion on "NHS" Test & Trace supposed to be the way we dealt with new variants of concern? What's happened to Dido Harding? It's all gone very quiet indeed, unless I'm just not looking in the right places for all the Test & Trace good news.

If we actually identify the source of the virus it might well exonerate China from blame, given there are straws in the wind about SARS-CoV-2 being present in various parts of the world long before it was first found in China. But that would not suit the agenda of some.

And yes I agree with you about Lady Harding. It stinks of corruption given the position in government held by her husband.

[Nimrod103]

While not disagreeing with your overall point I think we need to bit a little careful with our assumptions:

1. Are we sure the Kent variant arose in Kent or was it merely first recognised in Kent?

2. The Vietnam variant seems to have arisen in a country with very few cases relatively speaking.

There's a lot we can't be sure of.
John

Yes, it's possible the "Kent variant" was merely first recognised in Kent, but the pattern of greater infectiousness in Kent in November strongly suggests that's where it arose. My point is that after a certain stage, it doesn't matter whether we're fighting against variants from Wuhan, Kent or India, what's important is how we deal with the virus and variants we currently have.

The Vietnam variant is a real statistical oddity, because cases there have been so low. (There was a theory that suppressing viruses simply encouraged variants to evolve to be more effective - the Vietnam variant would be the first actual evidence this could happen in practice. Other variants have arisen in areas with very high infection levels, as would be expected).

The pattern of greater infectiousness of the 'Kent' variety is consistent with it being seeded in the UK from Kent. But in particular, the first areas to be drastically affected were Thanet and Swale, where local rumour has it that it spread from prison and detention centres holding illegal immigrants. The UK carries out c.50% of all the genomic testing in the World, so was early to ick up on these variants.