johnhemming wrote:Replacing large gatherings with lots of small gatherings is unlikely to reduce infection.
Public information is needed to encourage temporary social distancing
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johnhemming wrote:Replacing large gatherings with lots of small gatherings is unlikely to reduce infection.
redsturgeon wrote:This is interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKhPbVN_Rbw
The late show with Stephen Colbert airs every night in the US and I usually watch it . It is taped in front of a live theatre audience. Except last night it wasn't. They were due to stop having audiences at these type of shows in New York from next week but they brought it forward. All Broadway shows have been cancelled. The NBA basketball season is cancelled.
We are behind the curve in the UK, we need to look at stopping large gatherings now. I assume West End shows are still going on, they need to be cancelled. I think the time for putting the economy ahead of public safety is over.
The graphs I am looking at show what happened in Italy and where the UK is on the curve...it is not pretty. Every day we delay looks like it will be costly in terms of lives lost.
John
servodude wrote:
That's not how it works
Mutations happen, randomly within a population, there is no choice, there is no direction
- if any mutation provides a reproductive advantage it will likely survive to be there in future generations
- if any prevents reproduction it will not
- anything else doesn't have any effect
The organism's environment acts as a filter for it's unadvantageous mutations
That's about it
- sd
redsturgeon wrote:I agree that schools may be a special case due to the issue of parental care needed...and many of those parents would be healthcare workers. But sporting events, theatre, concerts, exhibitions etc should be cancelled now, what's the downside apart from loss of revenue.
John
JohnB wrote:There is little downside if you are rich enough to cope without 3 months pay, or have the kind of employer who will have you tidy the stock-cupboard back of house. But so much of the hospitality industry is run by people with poor pay and rights, and of course they can't home-work like regular office staff.
redsturgeon wrote:I have decided in the last two days that I will not attend my regular Tuesday night poker sessions that have been going on for ten years. It is time to get serious about this.
XFool wrote:redsturgeon wrote:I agree that schools may be a special case due to the issue of parental care needed...and many of those parents would be healthcare workers. But sporting events, theatre, concerts, exhibitions etc should be cancelled now, what's the downside apart from loss of revenue.
John
I think the argument is that a sudden, intense lock-down now would only be accepted for a limited time before it started to break down. You'd trade a 'success' now for a longer term failure with a second wave of the virus.
As people ARE going to get it, may as well allow them to get it GRADUALLY over a long period of time. Thus gradually building up the herd immunity in the process, to hold off a longer term, later failure.
That is my understanding, anyway.
JohnB wrote:I suspect panic buying is less in Remainer areas as they are still working through their Brexit cache. I know I'm eyeing up my tinned fish and custard mountain, buttressed by the washing powder and bog roll piles.
DrFfybes wrote:
Pretty much. Of course there is always metabolic cost, in the way that carrying (eg) an antibiotic resitance gene means you have a higher metabolic load so reproduce slower than without it. Therefore in a non selective environment (ie no antibiotics) carrying resistance is a hinderance and you are outcompeted.
Back to Coronavirus - there are several identified strains/variants out there, and being an RNA virus it can change quickly. The distribution of strains suggests multiple infection events into the UK, which is no surprise, however I personally was surprised that there was already sufficient genetic variation to detect this. Having said that Genome sequencing is much faster than when I was in science, so perhaps the variation was always there but we never saw it. I get the impression the changes seen are Silent mutations - ie have no effect on virus function, which suggets that expressed mutations are not prevalent. This is unsurprising, the virus has had a long time to get to the current state in the previous host, and the change required to infect humans has just appeared.
But humans are humans. The virus does not know how old you are. Over our life our immune systems face more challenges, they grow in spread and ability, and decline in old age. Some infections seem to have a greater impact on the young, some on the old, if the virus causes breathing difficulties then those with existing illnesses will be more susceptible.
Serodude and BJ are correct, the virus does NOT target these people, they are merely more susceptable to the infection. A mutation may arise that makes it more prevalent in the young, but people should avoid crediting it with intelligence.
Paul
ps if shops were short on loo roll last week, and now are out of Pasta, does that mean Pasta cures Diarrhoea
scotia wrote:Thinking over what good may arise from this Virus, I'm hopeful that the business world get round to realising that there is no need to Jet continuously around the world (or indeed around the country) to discuss a project face to face. I can have a face to face contact over the WWW network with my grandchildren without stepping out of our house. The technology is here - and has been here for a number of years. USE IT! And the benefit will be a much more efficient use of workers' time - and a reduction in carbon emissions. The need for a travel policy that was prevalent when your 65 year old Boss was a young lad/lass has long been made redundant by modern communications networks. Maybe this message will finally get through to the 65 year old Boss - particularly since he/she is likely to be in the Coronavirus high risk group.
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