redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!
I think we are essentially there.
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redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!
johnhemming wrote:redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!
I think we are essentially there.
johnhemming wrote:redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!
I think we are essentially there.
swill453 wrote:johnhemming wrote:redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!
I think we are essentially there.
I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.
johnhemming wrote:I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?
johnhemming wrote:Its not a conspiracy. There are some simple facts that Sage got wrong earlier this year. Where I think the particular criticism should lie is in failing to facilitate a debate about the science. A lot of the "lockdown sceptics" undermine the argument about the issue by being basically nuts. However, there is a basic scientific argument which I am entirely happy to argue.
johnhemming wrote:Its not a conspiracy. There are some simple facts that Sage got wrong earlier this year. Where I think the particular criticism should lie is in failing to facilitate a debate about the science. A lot of the "lockdown sceptics" undermine the argument about the issue by being basically nuts. However, there is a basic scientific argument which I am entirely happy to argue.
GoSeigen wrote:zico wrote:I'm aware there are a lot of intelligent and thoughtful people who are against lockdown, and I'm just trying to understand the rationale behind it.
You don't understand why people might be against governments telling you where you can and can't go, when and in what manner, and criminalise you if you infringe those rules?
GS
johnhemming wrote:swill453 wrote:johnhemming wrote:I think we are essentially there.
I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.
This is where we come into doing calculations.
a) What was the original susceptibility?
b) When did the infection start in the UK?
c) What was the original replication rate?
From those you can make estimates as to what the level of infection was in August. Then the disease became more virulent and R0 increased. Hence further infection was needed to get to the new HIT. That occurred until October and hence infections are going down.
I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?
johnhemming wrote:We have been through this in this particular thread multiple times.
The statistical evidence is that the virus became more virulent. That may be because of the behaviour of those infected, but I don't think it is possible to argue that it has not become more virulent.
swill453 wrote:However there is no evidence that the herd immunity threshold was/has been reached for any level of virulence.
zico wrote:johnhemming wrote:swill453 wrote:
I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.
This is where we come into doing calculations.
a) What was the original susceptibility?
b) When did the infection start in the UK?
c) What was the original replication rate?
From those you can make estimates as to what the level of infection was in August. Then the disease became more virulent and R0 increased. Hence further infection was needed to get to the new HIT. That occurred until October and hence infections are going down.
I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?
What evidence is there for your statement that the disease became more virulent in August?
Itsallaguess wrote:Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.
johnhemming wrote:Itsallaguess wrote:Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.
It does not really matter what the thing is that changes to make the virus seasonal. It is obvious from the statistics that there is a seasonal element and it started off in August in this country.
Whether it is people putting the heating on overnight is a separate issue that needs consideration, but it does not change the basic statistical records of people getting ill.
redsturgeon wrote:Perhaps it was because people thought it was safe to start behaving as if the virus had abated and they, started eating out in restaurants, drinking in bars, going on holiday etc etc.
johnhemming wrote:Itsallaguess wrote:
Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.
It does not really matter what the thing is that changes to make the virus seasonal. It is obvious from the statistics that there is a seasonal element and it started off in August in this country.
Whether it is people putting the heating on overnight is a separate issue that needs consideration, but it does not change the basic statistical records of people getting ill.
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