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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359821

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 7:57 am

redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!


I think we are essentially there.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359823

Postby redsturgeon » November 25th, 2020, 8:29 am

johnhemming wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!


I think we are essentially there.


In some areas maybe.

I think the 5 days of Xmas will probably get us most of the way there!


John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359828

Postby swill453 » November 25th, 2020, 8:53 am

johnhemming wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!

I think we are essentially there.

I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359835

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 9:19 am

swill453 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:A graph I saw yesterday shows that the UK and Japan are the two countries likely to hit herd immunity first in mid 2021.Back of the net!

I think we are essentially there.

I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.

This is where we come into doing calculations.
a) What was the original susceptibility?
b) When did the infection start in the UK?
c) What was the original replication rate?

From those you can make estimates as to what the level of infection was in August. Then the disease became more virulent and R0 increased. Hence further infection was needed to get to the new HIT. That occurred until October and hence infections are going down.

I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359840

Postby swill453 » November 25th, 2020, 9:28 am

johnhemming wrote:I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?

I'm afraid I trust mainstream science opinion more than you. If were were already at herd immunity there would be a clamour not to spend tens of £billions on testing and vaccination - everyone in the world can't be in on the conspiracy.

Redsturgeon's report above, that some countries might get there in 7 or 8 months, once large scale vaccination programmes have an effect, makes more sense (to me).

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359852

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 9:53 am

Its not a conspiracy. There are some simple facts that Sage got wrong earlier this year. Where I think the particular criticism should lie is in failing to facilitate a debate about the science. A lot of the "lockdown sceptics" undermine the argument about the issue by being basically nuts. However, there is a basic scientific argument which I am entirely happy to argue.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359854

Postby swill453 » November 25th, 2020, 10:00 am

johnhemming wrote:Its not a conspiracy. There are some simple facts that Sage got wrong earlier this year. Where I think the particular criticism should lie is in failing to facilitate a debate about the science. A lot of the "lockdown sceptics" undermine the argument about the issue by being basically nuts. However, there is a basic scientific argument which I am entirely happy to argue.

But broaden it outside the UK. As far as I can see, there are many countries who have had similar levels of Covid-19 to us, and they don't have Sage. All I can see (lunatics excluded) is that they are looking forward to the various vaccines to get them out of this hole, and not sitting back saying "job done".

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359857

Postby servodude » November 25th, 2020, 10:05 am

johnhemming wrote:Its not a conspiracy. There are some simple facts that Sage got wrong earlier this year. Where I think the particular criticism should lie is in failing to facilitate a debate about the science. A lot of the "lockdown sceptics" undermine the argument about the issue by being basically nuts. However, there is a basic scientific argument which I am entirely happy to argue.


And John they're are some simple school boy errors you've got wrong since you started posting about this
- but that doesn't undetermine your whole argument :)
Failing to accept you can have made mistakes thought, does
- it makes it look as though you've started from the conclusion and worked backwards trying to ignore anything that counters your presumptions
- and you've continually decided that sourcing information from "lockdown sceptics" is on a par with the Lancet or Medrix or the BBC
That's not the kind of stuff that give your opinions credence
- neither does stating then as absolute fact
- sometimes it comes across more as a desperate political position rather than a considered analysis

This stuff is bloody noisy, and it would serve whatever agenda you have better it you didn't try to pretend you have absolutely all the answers; because your maths is wrong and ignoring that drags the rest of your valid points down to the same level

-sd

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359860

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 10:06 am

Just asserting my maths is wrong does not make it wrong.

Do you really believe that when Sage said English susceptibility in September was over 90% that they were right?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359897

Postby zico » November 25th, 2020, 11:44 am

GoSeigen wrote:
zico wrote:I'm aware there are a lot of intelligent and thoughtful people who are against lockdown, and I'm just trying to understand the rationale behind it.


You don't understand why people might be against governments telling you where you can and can't go, when and in what manner, and criminalise you if you infringe those rules?

GS


No I really don't. We already have lots of laws to cover the areas you describe. You can be criminalised for speeding in your car when it's obviously perfectly safe to exceed the speed limit. It's a criminal offence to walk across railway tracks to get to the opposite platform, even if you can see there are no trains coming. You'd get a criminal record if you kept wandering into your neighbours' gardens and deliberately spreading viruses or diseases that harmed their plants, so why not have laws to help prevent spreading a deadly virus to your fellow humans?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359899

Postby zico » November 25th, 2020, 11:48 am

johnhemming wrote:
swill453 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:I think we are essentially there.

I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.

This is where we come into doing calculations.
a) What was the original susceptibility?
b) When did the infection start in the UK?
c) What was the original replication rate?

From those you can make estimates as to what the level of infection was in August. Then the disease became more virulent and R0 increased. Hence further infection was needed to get to the new HIT. That occurred until October and hence infections are going down.

I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?


What evidence is there for your statement that the disease became more virulent in August? Is it based on scientific analysis of the virus, or is it based on statistics? From everything I've read, there are a lot of variants of the virus, but they all seem to have a similar effect.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359902

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 11:58 am

We have been through this in this particular thread multiple times.

The statistical evidence is that the virus became more virulent. That may be because of the behaviour of those infected, but I don't think it is possible to argue that it has not become more virulent.

I am not suggesting that its RNA changed.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359904

Postby swill453 » November 25th, 2020, 12:06 pm

johnhemming wrote:We have been through this in this particular thread multiple times.

The statistical evidence is that the virus became more virulent. That may be because of the behaviour of those infected, but I don't think it is possible to argue that it has not become more virulent.

However there is no evidence that the herd immunity threshold was/has been reached for any level of virulence.

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359905

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 12:10 pm

swill453 wrote:However there is no evidence that the herd immunity threshold was/has been reached for any level of virulence.

Apart from the figures by MSOA in London there is that the level of daily infections went down in October. That will, of course, be affected by a wide range of things including how many people are already infected.

It is possible to debate to what extent the restrictions had any effect, but you need to remember that people continue being infected once the threshold has been reached for any set of circumstances. Hence once the HIT has been hit for a given set of restrictions people continue to be infected.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359906

Postby Itsallaguess » November 25th, 2020, 12:12 pm

zico wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
swill453 wrote:
I disagree strongly, I don't think we're anywhere near it.


This is where we come into doing calculations.
a) What was the original susceptibility?
b) When did the infection start in the UK?
c) What was the original replication rate?

From those you can make estimates as to what the level of infection was in August. Then the disease became more virulent and R0 increased. Hence further infection was needed to get to the new HIT. That occurred until October and hence infections are going down.

I have done these figures before. What are your options for them?


What evidence is there for your statement that the disease became more virulent in August?


Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.

I mean, I never, and I don't know anyone else who did, or ever even thinks about it in August, but I won't let those facts get in the way of such thinking when all the, erm, evidence, is so overwhelming that we, actually, did....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359912

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 12:20 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.

It does not really matter what the thing is that changes to make the virus seasonal. It is obvious from the statistics that there is a seasonal element and it started off in August in this country.

Whether it is people putting the heating on overnight is a separate issue that needs consideration, but it does not change the basic statistical records of people getting ill.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359913

Postby redsturgeon » November 25th, 2020, 12:25 pm

johnhemming wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.

It does not really matter what the thing is that changes to make the virus seasonal. It is obvious from the statistics that there is a seasonal element and it started off in August in this country.

Whether it is people putting the heating on overnight is a separate issue that needs consideration, but it does not change the basic statistical records of people getting ill.


Perhaps it was because people thought it was safe to start behaving as if the virus had abated and they, started eating out in restaurants, drinking in bars, going on holiday etc etc.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359918

Postby johnhemming » November 25th, 2020, 12:32 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Perhaps it was because people thought it was safe to start behaving as if the virus had abated and they, started eating out in restaurants, drinking in bars, going on holiday etc etc.

That, of course, is an argument.

However, for that to be a change that influences outcomes you would need to see an increase in rates of infection linked to the timing of those changes.

Obviously this is a situation where a number of factors have an effect and it is the combination that matters rather than any one factor.

A mathematical model to determine levels of infection would also be good (I am pretty certain I have posted such somewhere in TLF).

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359919

Postby Itsallaguess » November 25th, 2020, 12:34 pm

johnhemming wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Because John thinks everyone in the North of England put their central heating on in August.


It does not really matter what the thing is that changes to make the virus seasonal. It is obvious from the statistics that there is a seasonal element and it started off in August in this country.

Whether it is people putting the heating on overnight is a separate issue that needs consideration, but it does not change the basic statistical records of people getting ill.


I'm not suggesting for a minute that there isn't a seasonal element...

What I've *always* said is that is wasn't clear at the end of October that the influence of the winter seasonal elements had reached their maximum effect of the whole winter period, and it was right to err on the side of caution given the clear rise in cases, and carry out the second lockdown on November 5th, because to not do so and be wrong about those influential seasonal elements could have been catastrophic...

You've said that everyone had put their central heating on by then, and the seasonal elements had reached their most influential, and there wasn't therefore the need for the second precautionary November lockdown...

Given that I hadn't turned my central heating on by then, and neither had anyone that I know, I have some very real doubts in your reliance on that particular factor in your arguments, because if not everyone had turned their central heating on by then, there was a good chance that more prolonged and *colder* seasonal elements might well have influenced a higher peak *again*, similar to the one being seen in August, had we not taken stronger action in early November...

You're saying that the secondary peak that we're seeing behind us now was going to be the worst it was every going to get over the winter, with or without strict protocols in place, and I'm sorry but I've not seen any good evidence yet that this is the case.

Yes it was a peak, but that's our second, but don't forget that we were already under fairly strict protocols for a period before the lockdown, and especially so in those areas where Tier 3 protocols had been implemented.....so why could there not have been a third peak if we'd just opened the floodgates and allowed the colder winter influences to creep up on us?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#359928

Postby FairTrial » November 25th, 2020, 12:47 pm

Dr. Mike Yeadon, former Pfizer Vice President and expert immunologist, calls bullshit on the prevalence of Covid-19.

Basically, he says the pandemic is over and agrees with a lot of the points made on this thread.

See his talk here: 'lbry.tv/@TheCovidReport:0/Mike-Yeadon-Unlocked-Nov-19-2020:4'


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