Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[johnhemming]

You can also consider the southern hemisphere
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

It is not necessarily the case that the temperature directly affects this. It could be a change in people's behaviour as a result of the seasons (things like switching the heating on so that the house is less relatively humid or spending more time indoors).

If we start with the data looking at the difference between northern and southern hemispheres we can see a variation in terms of covid-19. It is, of course, the case that the water goes down the plug hole in a different way, but Occams Razor would indicate that it is more likely to be a seasonal variation rather than something to do with coriolis forces.

[servodude]

You can also consider the southern hemisphere
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

It is not necessarily the case that the temperature directly affects this. It could be a change in people's behaviour as a result of the seasons (things like switching the heating on so that the house is less relatively humid or spending more time indoors).

If we start with the data looking at the difference between northern and southern hemispheres we can see a variation in terms of covid-19. It is, of course, the case that the water goes down the plug hole in a different way, but Occams Razor would indicate that it is more likely to be a seasonal variation rather than something to do with coriolis forces.

So Chile shows its peak of active cases in the middle of its winter because it's in the southern hemisphere?

-sd

[johnhemming]

Its more of a question as to whether this second increase in hospital admissions has a seasonal element or not.

Hence if we look at countries that have contrary seasons then we can look to find how many of them have a second increase in cases (aka wave) and whether is is arguable therefore that there is not a seasonal element to the increase in cases/admissions in the northern hemisphere.

Obviously the disease cannot start infecting people in a country until it gets there

Once we conclude that it does have a seasonal element there is then the question as to what proportion of the increase in hospital admissions is driven by that and/or the lack of immunity from prior infection (either by this virus or a similar one)..

[XFool]

Statistical illiteracy isn't a niche problem. During a pandemic, it can be fatal
Carlo Rovelli

The Guardian

In recent months, we’ve all been bombarded with numbers. It’s vital that we learn how to interpret them

[NeilW]

f we start with the data looking at the difference between northern and southern hemispheres we can see a variation in terms of covid-19. It is, of course, the case that the water goes down the plug hole in a different way, but Occams Razor would indicate that it is more likely to be a seasonal variation rather than something to do with coriolis forces.

(I) the plug hole thing is a bit of a myth - almost certainly overridden by local effects (e.g moving water) as the force is so small. To get it you have to have a carefully balanced experiment - a perfectly level dish 2m across with a 9mm hole dead centre and the water left for 24 hours first to eliminate any internal movement.

(ii) The seasonal variation of respiratory viruses based upon whereabouts in the world you are has been known for decades. It doesn't necessarily follow temperature variation or humidity and the attempts to discover why these patterns occur are on going. There are endless papers about it in the literature.

Generally, coronaviruses displayed marked winter seasonality between the months of December and April and were not detected in summer months, which is comparable to the pattern seen with influenza viruses.

https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940

[XFool]

If only it were simple and straightforward!

An Elite Group Of Scientists Tried To Warn Trump Against Lockdowns In March

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/ioannidis-trump-white-house-coronavirus-lockdowns

John Ioannidis’s controversial studies claim that the coronavirus isn’t that big a threat. Before the Stanford scientist did any of them, he wanted to take that message to the White House.
Posted on July 24, 2020, at 1:03 p.m. ET

[zico]

It's really difficult for me to understand how the "no lockdown" idea is still gaining traction, when we look at the examples of China (in particular) and other countries in south-east Asia. They were hit earliest, took early action and had strict lockdowns, and have had a smaller economic hit and also getting back to normal life and socialising, so appear to have the best of all worlds.

UK covid deaths are currently around 200 per day, which is the equivalent of 2 Hillsborough stadium disasters per day (or 1 plane crash per day) to put it into context.

[XFool]

Coronavirus: How my mum became a conspiracy theory influencer

BBC News

"Sebastian’s mum has become one of the leaders of Britain’s conspiracy community, collecting tens of thousands of followers with false claims – including denying coronavirus exists, blaming the symptoms of Covid-19 on 5G radio waves and likening the NHS to Nazi Germany."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kate_Shemirani

[vrdiver]

It's really difficult for me to understand how the "no lockdown" idea is still gaining traction

Wishful thinking and a bias from those who think they are unlikely to be affected (or conversely, from some of those who think they are running out of time regardless).
There's enough F.U.D. being spread about that people could be forgiven for questioning how serious this is or what the damage would be if we just let it spread. When people hear "let the vulnerable self-isolate whilst the rest of us get on with our lives" they don't really think it through. They don't consider how impractical that is.

I heard on the radio earlier that the average age of a CV19 death was 82, whilst UK life expectancy is 81. The speaker then implied that deaths were only happening to old people who were on their last legs anyway. Unfortunately the presenter didn't push back with the obvious errors in comparing those statistics directly, or comment that the average lost life span is around 11 years. It's broadcasting like that that really doesn't help emphasize the potential loss of life and consequent grief that would ensue if we allow the virus to circulate freely.

Note, I'm not arguing that the government has got the balance of economic and health protection right; far from it, but not being responsible for the outcome, my views on how this should be managed are roughly equivalent to the average taxi driver / hairdresser's expertise on running the country.

VRD

[johnhemming]

I may not have spotted that hospital admissions were updated because the figure was 997 when updated. However, the last four figures are 997, 987,997, 990. Looking at the regions there is not necessarily any particular trend over the past few days. We can hope that it does not top 1,000 (across England), but it probably will.

[johnhemming]

They don't consider how impractical that is.

With support from the government it becomes more practical. Within my family we are doing this and with government support it would be more practical for others to do this. At the moment it is not clear that the government actions are having that much impact (on infections) anyway.

[GoSeigen]

It's really difficult for me to understand how the "no lockdown" idea is still gaining traction, when we look at the examples of China (in particular) and other countries in south-east Asia. They were hit earliest, took early action and had strict lockdowns, and have had a smaller economic hit and also getting back to normal life and socialising, so appear to have the best of all worlds.

UK covid deaths are currently around 200 per day, which is the equivalent of 2 Hillsborough stadium disasters per day (or 1 plane crash per day) to put it into context.

I don't agree that that's any sort of useful context. e.g. it's only a small fraction of daily UK deaths -- we have several plane crashes every day for ever under quite normal circumstances.

As for the "no-lockdown" idea, it's hardly relevant to Covid in the UK: we've already had a lockdown so cannot have no lockdown can we? "Enough lockdown" is more like it...

GS

[zico]

I don't agree that that's any sort of useful context. e.g. it's only a small fraction of daily UK deaths -- we have several plane crashes every day for ever under quite normal circumstances.

As for the "no-lockdown" idea, it's hardly relevant to Covid in the UK: we've already had a lockdown so cannot have no lockdown can we? "Enough lockdown" is more like it...

GS

About 1% of our population dies every year because we're not immortal. That's normal. But extra deaths are abnormal. I can't think of any other new cause of death where hundreds are dying every day that gets shrugged off as "small proportion of total deaths". For example, 20 people died in the Manchester bombing, but quite rightly, nobody would suggest that was too small a number to matter?

OK, to be precise, "no more lockdown" appears to be the new idea. But our current "mild lockdown" is causing 200 daily deaths, and "no more lockdown" would cause a lot more. Of course, there is a balancing level where we accept a certain number of deaths in return for being able to live our lives as we want. For example, about 1,000 deaths (3 per day) caused by cars is considered a reasonable price to pay for being able to drive ourselves around.

[johnhemming]

But extra deaths are abnormal.

OK, to be precise, "no more lockdown" appears to be the new idea.

But our current "mild lockdown" is causing 200 daily deaths, and "no more lockdown" would cause a lot more.

People study excess deaths because extra deaths are abnormal.

Quite a few people who are recorded in the hospital admissions figures are admitted to hospital for some other reason and test positive for Covid-19. Hence they are clearly ill otherwise.

We do not know what the situation would be with varying levels of restrictions. We can see the situation in European countries such as Sweden and Latvia that did not have that many restrictions earlier in the year.

Using Sweden as a comparator more people are dying in England than in Sweden from Covid-19. (adjusted for population).

Euromomo assesses excess mortality across Europe
https://www.euromomo.eu/bulletins/2020-42/

You can see on the charts that earlier this year there was a lot.

Using their z score, however, in week 42 there was nothing they assess as being excess mortality (not even low excess mortality) across Europe apart from Belgium (low) and Spain (high).

[Itsallaguess]

Some interesting English regional data here, for rolling 7-day COVID-positive cases per 100K population -



Image source - https://twitter.com/ukcovid19stats?lang=en

I think the data is interesting both for the recent indication that harsher lock-down measures in the North-East look to have been delivering some good results, and also that some areas without harsher restrictions at the moment are trying their hardest to play catch-up with some of the more infectious regions...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[swill453]

Tweet from Naomi O'Leary, Europe Correspondent at the Irish Times:

Hospital capacity running out in multiple European countries, as forecast.
Ambulances 'driving in circles' in the Hague, unable to discharge patients.
Belgium asks NL to take in some patients, but Dutch hospitals are already airlifting patients to Germany, as they have no room,

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/statu ... 6699701249

Scott.

[Itsallaguess]

Oxford Covid-19 vaccine boost as it shows 'strong immune response' in elderly -

Medical experts have said the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine has shown a "strong immune response" among elderly participants.

Information from an earlier stage of the Oxford University and AstraZeneca vaccine candidate trial suggests "similar" immune responses among younger and older adults, scientists said.

Data on the safety and immune responses among those taking part in the phase two vaccine trial has been submitted for peer review in a medical journal.

But the findings have been discussed before publication, prompting more excitement about the vaccine - considered one of the forerunners in the Covid-19 vaccine race.

Experts have predicted that the data from the trial could be presented to regulators within weeks.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/oxford-covid-19-vaccine-boost-22909380

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[GoSeigen]

I don't agree that that's any sort of useful context. e.g. it's only a small fraction of daily UK deaths -- we have several plane crashes every day for ever under quite normal circumstances.

As for the "no-lockdown" idea, it's hardly relevant to Covid in the UK: we've already had a lockdown so cannot have no lockdown can we? "Enough lockdown" is more like it...

GS

About 1% of our population dies every year because we're not immortal. That's normal. But extra deaths are abnormal. I can't think of any other new cause of death where hundreds are dying every day that gets shrugged off as "small proportion of total deaths". For example, 20 people died in the Manchester bombing, but quite rightly, nobody would suggest that was too small a number to matter?

Hundreds are not dying every day. Two hundred a day have died for a week. Perhaps the same for another couple of weeks.

In April more than 500 died every day for the entire month. Those deaths will be hard to detect in anything but a near-term analysis. So even by the standards of this year there is nothing to see here.

OK, to be precise, "no more lockdown" appears to be the new idea. But our current "mild lockdown" is causing 200 daily deaths, and "no more lockdown" would cause a lot more. Of course, there is a balancing level where we accept a certain number of deaths in return for being able to live our lives as we want. For example, about 1,000 deaths (3 per day) caused by cars is considered a reasonable price to pay for being able to drive ourselves around.

"No more lockdown" is not a new idea. It is what we have lived with for decades. Lockdown is the new stupid idea and I want it to end as soon as possible. I greatly resent not being able to see my close family members for the best part of a year for no good reason.

GS

[dealtn]

Unfortunately the presenter didn't push back with the obvious errors in comparing those statistics directly, or comment that the average lost life span is around 11 years.

Do you have a source for this please?

[vrdiver]

Unfortunately the presenter didn't push back with the obvious errors in comparing those statistics directly, or comment that the average lost life span is around 11 years.

Do you have a source for this please?

As there's two points in the above quote from me, I'll address both, although I am assuming you were actually after the 11 years statistic.

#1 comparing age of Covid-19 death with average life expectancy.
Fairly obvious, if somebody has reached the age of, say, 80, their life expectancy is calculated on how long the average 80-year-old lives, not on the whole population (which would include all the people who don't make it to 80).

#2 the average lost life span is around 11 years

Years of life lost
For men the average YLL on adjusting for number and type of LTC as well as age was 13.1 (12.2–14.1). For women this value was 10.5 (9.7–11.3). The results were similar under the different assumptions for the age-multimorbidity association and in both sensitivity analyses, whether assuming strongly correlated or independent LTCs (Table 1). For comparison, the YLL based on age alone using the WHO tables was 14.0 and 11.8 for men and women, respectively.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articl ... NXlbTrBwoo

and from a US study:

Average years of life lost were 10.8

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20050559v2