Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[sunnyjoe]

Replacing large gatherings with lots of small gatherings is unlikely to reduce infection.

Public information is needed to encourage temporary social distancing

[redsturgeon]

Our business involves face to face meetings and training seminars with groups of ten to thirty people. Pretty much all of those meetings in our calendar for the next for months have been cancelled, postponed or rearranged as video conferences or Skype meetings. This has not been a unilateral decision on our part.

I have decided in the last two days that I will not attend my regular Tuesday night poker sessions that have been going on for ten years. It is time to get serious about this.

John

[JohnB]

I'm retired and looking after my 90yo mother who chronic back problems are so bad at present that she sleeps in a chair as she can't manage a bed. I don't mind getting the disease, indeed I want to get the inevitability over with, but I really don't want her to get it in her current state. I plan to go to a book group on Saturday that I've attended for 30 years, but parties and birthday meals after that really do seem frivolous. I do need to get out of the house though, so will continue with the conservation groups, where we are wide-spaced and gloved, just no tea breaks.

[terminal7]

Yesterday at Waitrose Finchley Road London - very little evidence of above average buying - cheapest loo rolls all gone - plenty of others - pasta low side (maybe shelves not replenished??) - no signs re restrictions. Obviously many people in area live in flats and the storage space would be very restricted and I suspect (no hard evidence apart from local friends) do not have stand alone freezers.

T7

[stevensfo]

This is interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKhPbVN_Rbw

The late show with Stephen Colbert airs every night in the US and I usually watch it . It is taped in front of a live theatre audience. Except last night it wasn't. They were due to stop having audiences at these type of shows in New York from next week but they brought it forward. All Broadway shows have been cancelled. The NBA basketball season is cancelled.

We are behind the curve in the UK, we need to look at stopping large gatherings now. I assume West End shows are still going on, they need to be cancelled. I think the time for putting the economy ahead of public safety is over.

The graphs I am looking at show what happened in Italy and where the UK is on the curve...it is not pretty. Every day we delay looks like it will be costly in terms of lives lost.

John

Exactly! I'm in Lombardia and one of the first thing they did was to close schools in our area. Children may be the least affected by the virus, but the schools are the best places for spreading out to the surrounding areas. I'm absolutely disgusted that it took the UK government so long to realise this, even after Ireland shut their schools before they had any cases. Even with the schools shut, it may be too late now. Their irresponsibility is mind-blowing!

Steve

[DrFfybes]

Moderator Message:
RS Moved from Biscuit Bar to the Snug. Shadow left.

With no official control in place, a lot of people seem to be taking their own measures.

Care Homes have stopped non essential visitors, Homecare companies have stopped accepting new clients, some elderly housing complexes are working towards limiting resident contact with the outside world.

But yesterday my dentist did a descale protected only by safety glasses. He didn't think a mask was effective against the droplets.

I'm at home now anyway, but have started shoppping away from peak times. MrsF can work from home, and distance herself at work. I even used a self checkout to avoid talking to a checkout person who'd seen hundreds of other people already that day.

So, who else is doing what?

[JohnB]

Masks don't work. The fabric ones become quickly saturated with moisture which gives a direct path for the virus. Masks that do work are too uncomfortable to wear for ordinary use.

As I said elsewhere I'm retired and looking after my 90yo mother who chronic back problems are so bad at present that she sleeps in a chair as she can't manage a bed. I don't mind getting the disease, indeed I want to get the inevitability over with, but I really don't want her to get it in her current state. I plan to go to a book group on Saturday that I've attended for 30 years, but parties and birthday meals after that really do seem frivolous. I do need to get out of the house though, so will continue with the conservation groups, where we are wide-spaced and gloved, just no tea breaks.

[JohnB]

The argument is that closing schools puts additional burdens on their parents, including NHS staff, who start needing to take time off to care for them. It may be a case of Something Must Be Done, but each country is trying its own solution, and only analysis in a year from now will show what is right. Similarly delaying the lockdown keeps the economy working, and people getting paid a bit longer, and stops economic woes that would feed back into a worse crisis.

[Dod101]

I am one of those relatively anti social types anyway and live in a semi rural spot. I walk quite a lot and get out most days subject to the weather. Like DrFfybes, I find myself going shopping at quieter times. First thing in the morning is good because the shelves have been restocked overnight and there is more choice.

I fall within the elderly bit of the population these days but am in good health with no underlying issues as far as I know. I would prefer to avoid the Coronavirus.

Dod

[redsturgeon]

I agree that schools may be a special case due to the issue of parental care needed...and many of those parents would be healthcare workers. But sporting events, theatre, concerts, exhibitions etc should be cancelled now, what's the downside apart from loss of revenue.

John

[JohnB]

There is little downside if you are rich enough to cope without 3 months pay, or have the kind of employer who will have you tidy the stock-cupboard back of house. But so much of the hospitality industry is run by people with poor pay and rights, and of course they can't home-work like regular office staff.

[DrFfybes]

That's not how it works

Mutations happen, randomly within a population, there is no choice, there is no direction
- if any mutation provides a reproductive advantage it will likely survive to be there in future generations
- if any prevents reproduction it will not
- anything else doesn't have any effect

The organism's environment acts as a filter for it's unadvantageous mutations

That's about it
- sd

Pretty much. Of course there is always metabolic cost, in the way that carrying (eg) an antibiotic resitance gene means you have a higher metabolic load so reproduce slower than without it. Therefore in a non selective environment (ie no antibiotics) carrying resistance is a hinderance and you are outcompeted.

Back to Coronavirus - there are several identified strains/variants out there, and being an RNA virus it can change quickly. The distribution of strains suggests multiple infection events into the UK, which is no surprise, however I personally was surprised that there was already sufficient genetic variation to detect this. Having said that Genome sequencing is much faster than when I was in science, so perhaps the variation was always there but we never saw it. I get the impression the changes seen are Silent mutations - ie have no effect on virus function, which suggets that expressed mutations are not prevalent. This is unsurprising, the virus has had a long time to get to the current state in the previous host, and the change required to infect humans has just appeared.

But humans are humans. The virus does not know how old you are. Over our life our immune systems face more challenges, they grow in spread and ability, and decline in old age. Some infections seem to have a greater impact on the young, some on the old, if the virus causes breathing difficulties then those with existing illnesses will be more susceptible.

Serodude and BJ are correct, the virus does NOT target these people, they are merely more susceptable to the infection. A mutation may arise that makes it more prevalent in the young, but people should avoid crediting it with intelligence.

Paul

ps if shops were short on loo roll last week, and now are out of Pasta, does that mean Pasta cures Diarrhoea

[XFool]

I agree that schools may be a special case due to the issue of parental care needed...and many of those parents would be healthcare workers. But sporting events, theatre, concerts, exhibitions etc should be cancelled now, what's the downside apart from loss of revenue.

John

I think the argument is that a sudden, intense lock-down now would only be accepted for a limited time before it started to break down. You'd trade a 'success' now for a longer term failure with a second wave of the virus.

As people ARE going to get it, may as well allow them to get it GRADUALLY over a long period of time. Thus gradually building up the herd immunity in the process, to hold off a longer term, later failure.

That is my understanding, anyway.

[redsturgeon]

There is little downside if you are rich enough to cope without 3 months pay, or have the kind of employer who will have you tidy the stock-cupboard back of house. But so much of the hospitality industry is run by people with poor pay and rights, and of course they can't home-work like regular office staff.

Yes I know that, my daughter is in exactly that situation, she works in hospitality with no sickness benefits. But I think that some pain now may stop more pain later. I feel it is up to the government to ensure that our lowest paid workers are protected.

John

[scotia]

I have decided in the last two days that I will not attend my regular Tuesday night poker sessions that have been going on for ten years. It is time to get serious about this.

Clearly a plus point for the Coronavirus.

[redsturgeon]

I agree that schools may be a special case due to the issue of parental care needed...and many of those parents would be healthcare workers. But sporting events, theatre, concerts, exhibitions etc should be cancelled now, what's the downside apart from loss of revenue.

John

I think the argument is that a sudden, intense lock-down now would only be accepted for a limited time before it started to break down. You'd trade a 'success' now for a longer term failure with a second wave of the virus.

As people ARE going to get it, may as well allow them to get it GRADUALLY over a long period of time. Thus gradually building up the herd immunity in the process, to hold off a longer term, later failure.

That is my understanding, anyway.

That is my understanding to of the government's argument too.

John

[DrFfybes]

I suspect panic buying is less in Remainer areas as they are still working through their Brexit cache. I know I'm eyeing up my tinned fish and custard mountain, buttressed by the washing powder and bog roll piles.

I'm hopiong MrsF will finally get through the CupASoup she buyght for the Millenium.

Paul

[redsturgeon]

Pretty much. Of course there is always metabolic cost, in the way that carrying (eg) an antibiotic resitance gene means you have a higher metabolic load so reproduce slower than without it. Therefore in a non selective environment (ie no antibiotics) carrying resistance is a hinderance and you are outcompeted.

Back to Coronavirus - there are several identified strains/variants out there, and being an RNA virus it can change quickly. The distribution of strains suggests multiple infection events into the UK, which is no surprise, however I personally was surprised that there was already sufficient genetic variation to detect this. Having said that Genome sequencing is much faster than when I was in science, so perhaps the variation was always there but we never saw it. I get the impression the changes seen are Silent mutations - ie have no effect on virus function, which suggets that expressed mutations are not prevalent. This is unsurprising, the virus has had a long time to get to the current state in the previous host, and the change required to infect humans has just appeared.

But humans are humans. The virus does not know how old you are. Over our life our immune systems face more challenges, they grow in spread and ability, and decline in old age. Some infections seem to have a greater impact on the young, some on the old, if the virus causes breathing difficulties then those with existing illnesses will be more susceptible.

Serodude and BJ are correct, the virus does NOT target these people, they are merely more susceptable to the infection. A mutation may arise that makes it more prevalent in the young, but people should avoid crediting it with intelligence.

Paul

ps if shops were short on loo roll last week, and now are out of Pasta, does that mean Pasta cures Diarrhoea

I highly recommend Inside Science from R4 yesterday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g3gf

It explains the genetic sequencing that is done these days on the virus, how it works and how they can tell the chain of infection.

What I didn't realise is the frequency of changes to the genetic sequences that occur meaning each infection has a unique sequence.

John

[scotia]

Thinking over what good may arise from this Virus, I'm hopeful that the business world get round to realising that there is no need to Jet continuously around the world (or indeed around the country) to discuss a project face to face. I can have a face to face contact over the WWW network with my grandchildren without stepping out of our house. The technology is here - and has been here for a number of years. USE IT! And the benefit will be a much more efficient use of workers' time - and a reduction in carbon emissions. The need for a travel policy that was prevalent when your 65 year old Boss was a young lad/lass has long been made redundant by modern communications networks. Maybe this message will finally get through to the 65 year old Boss - particularly since he/she is likely to be in the Coronavirus high risk group.

[redsturgeon]

Thinking over what good may arise from this Virus, I'm hopeful that the business world get round to realising that there is no need to Jet continuously around the world (or indeed around the country) to discuss a project face to face. I can have a face to face contact over the WWW network with my grandchildren without stepping out of our house. The technology is here - and has been here for a number of years. USE IT! And the benefit will be a much more efficient use of workers' time - and a reduction in carbon emissions. The need for a travel policy that was prevalent when your 65 year old Boss was a young lad/lass has long been made redundant by modern communications networks. Maybe this message will finally get through to the 65 year old Boss - particularly since he/she is likely to be in the Coronavirus high risk group.

I'd agree with this entirely.

I know many people who work for multinationals and the amount of jetting around the globe that they do is appalling.

One works for a major pharma company and spent 10 days in Japan in early Feb basically for two two hour meetings!

The other works for Shell and spends his life jetting to China, the US and the Middle for "meetings".

John