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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
jfgw
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446577

Postby jfgw » September 30th, 2021, 1:09 pm

Six weeks is not long enough to show that masks reduce infections, although it is clear that they slow down the rate of new infections. The unmasked schools may be able to put the disease behind them a lot sooner.

There are, obviously, other factors such as changes in immunity levels due to vaccines (ongoing vaccination programs, rise and fall of protection), the time of year, and health service capacity. Waning vaccine efficacy in the children's grandparents, for example, may mean that delaying infections by mandating masks would increase the overall death rate.

I am not saying that this is the case. However, slowing infections is not the same as reducing infections, and neither are the same as reducing covid-related deaths or other health issues.


Julian F. G. W.

dealtn
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446583

Postby dealtn » September 30th, 2021, 1:20 pm

dealtn wrote:It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.

88V8 wrote:Weill it improves my mental health to know that I'm at less risk.


Yes indeed. You have found another offset. You agree it's complicated then?
88V8 wrote:And I doubt that closing schools because of infections is great for education.


You're right, it's not. Neither is sending year groups home, having absent teachers etc.

88V8 wrote:It's not exactly a great imposition...


Agreed, for many it isn't. For some though it seriously affects their ability to understand, communicate, feel part of a group. Others are affected even more with elevated concerns, worrying about risks disproportionately. Are you saying you think it is only the majority that matter?

Mental Health isn't frivolous, and child mental health even less so.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446645

Postby redsturgeon » September 30th, 2021, 3:47 pm

dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.



It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.


Do you have a reference for that?

dealtn
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446650

Postby dealtn » September 30th, 2021, 3:56 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.



It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.


Do you have a reference for that?


There are many articles in respectable education based publications on this.

My wife is a school nurse and I hear anecdotally most days from her about Covid in schools, the small section of children with significant mental health issues she has to deal with, and the changing Covid protocols at her place of work (and others).

It's genuinely tricky (and exhausting for school employees) to deal with. Anyone that thinks it is a binary mask good, no mask bad, affecting all children the same is some way from the truth.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446658

Postby redsturgeon » September 30th, 2021, 4:15 pm

dealtn wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
dealtn wrote:
It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.


Do you have a reference for that?


There are many articles in respectable education based publications on this.

My wife is a school nurse and I hear anecdotally most days from her about Covid in schools, the small section of children with significant mental health issues she has to deal with, and the changing Covid protocols at her place of work (and others).

It's genuinely tricky (and exhausting for school employees) to deal with. Anyone that thinks it is a binary mask good, no mask bad, affecting all children the same is some way from the truth.


Do you have a reference...I am genuinely interested.

It would be unlike you to make an unsubstantiated claim.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447066

Postby XFool » October 1st, 2021, 7:05 pm

Covid: One in 20 secondary-age children infected in England

BBC News

One in every 20 children of secondary school age in England is infected with coronavirus, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

"This is the highest reported rate for this age group - or any other - since the pandemic began."

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447069

Postby dealtn » October 1st, 2021, 7:14 pm

XFool wrote:
One in every 20 children of secondary school age in England is infected with coronavirus, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
[/i]"


Sounds about right from the experience of my wife's school. (Although hard to estimate too accurately as some infected will be undiscovered, and lateral flow testing isn't as accurate - particularly when taken by children themselves). About 1 in 80 of adults in the school. Obviously far to small a sample to be meaningless though.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447352

Postby XFool » October 2nd, 2021, 9:23 pm

Had Pfizer booster vaccine today.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447356

Postby Mike4 » October 2nd, 2021, 9:47 pm

dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.



It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.


And catching Covid19 doesn't?

dealtn
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447358

Postby dealtn » October 2nd, 2021, 9:58 pm

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.



It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.


And catching Covid19 doesn't?


No, it does, quite often, but actually catching it often doesn't as many people are asymptomatic, indeed ignorant they have even had it (though I doubt that is your point). Very many with Covid in schools would be unaffected by Covid educationally, apart from discovering they have it as part of the ongoing testing regime, quite rightly in place, then as a result they are excluded and miss out on education.

Catching Covid (anywhere) is serious, and if it leads to absence from school it clearly affects education. Can you find anywhere I have claimed otherwise? Similarly for employees catching it will affect their work, and their employers.

The one thing we should have learnt over the past months is that dealing with a pandemic isn't simple, or binary, but very complex. Solutions to some problems create others elsewhere. Pay people to take time off work so they don't spread it, and it leads to debt at a national level, and supply issues for companies, and their consumers. Don't allow people time off work and it spreads further and faster. Compromises are found and made, hopefully something close to optimal, often not - although over time decision makers learn and adjust.

So thank you for your flippant response, but it's not particularly helpful in adding to the debate. Noone to my knowledge has made the claim you are making.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447393

Postby vrdiver » October 3rd, 2021, 8:17 am

Without the relevant comparison of the effects, I'm afraid both comments re mask wearing and catching covid impacting education are equally valid and equally flippant...

Either of you able to provide quantitative argument?

VRD

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#447426

Postby dealtn » October 3rd, 2021, 10:53 am

vrdiver wrote:Without the relevant comparison of the effects, I'm afraid both comments re mask wearing and catching covid impacting education are equally valid and equally flippant...

Either of you able to provide quantitative argument?

VRD


Unsurprisingly it is difficult to find long term academic studies, since pre-Covid there has been little requirement to wear masks in educational establishments (bar some science labs and medical facilities). You won't find many academic papers yet (and certainly no peer reviewed ones).

But you can easily google some of the factors that schools, and healthcare professionals, are talking about and concerned about. Most are small effects that affect most people, but for a small minority these can be quite large and present real educational and health issues.

Here is a small quote from
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... a_pandemic

"Face masks can prevent the spread of the virus SARS-CoV-2, in particular as this spread can occur from people with no symptoms. However, covering the lower half of the face reduces the ability to communicate, interpret, and mimic the expressions of those with whom we interact. Positive emotions become less recognizable, and negative emotions are amplified. Emotional mimicry, contagion, and emotionality in general are reduced and (thereby) bonding between teachers and learners, group cohesion, and learning – of which emotions are a major driver. The benefits and burdens of face masks in schools should be seriously considered and made obvious and clear to teachers and students. The school's specific situation must also inform any decision regarding face mask use."

which highlights some of the issues.

This issue is dealt with (like many Covid protocols) in different ways across the world. In the UK the Government advice is no longer to have compulsory mask wearing in schools. The benefits of doing so have been abandoned which leaves choice to the wearers, and schools (and parents) rather than top down imposition. This only occurred once a more rigourous testing regime was introduced.

This subject is topical, and no doubt the protocols themselves will be flexible as Covid prevalence falls/rises.

Interestingly from a school nurse perspective they are having to deal with practical issues around parental consent. Some children have wanted to wear masks so as not to be different to others, but have parents that "forbid" it. In this instance parental pressure, exceeding peer pressure adds to child mental health issues. That might be seen as relatively minor, but with the roll out of Covid vaccinations in schools to 12-18 year olds, requiring parental consent, this problem has escalated. There are a minority of children wanting vaccination but denied by their parents (for their own reasons, and quite legally). Child Mental Health issues such as these are becoming more commonplace unfortunately.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448134

Postby dealtn » October 5th, 2021, 5:36 pm

XFool wrote:Covid: One in 20 secondary-age children infected in England

BBC News

One in every 20 children of secondary school age in England is infected with coronavirus, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

"This is the highest reported rate for this age group - or any other - since the pandemic began."


1 in 40 off school approximately

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-58805054

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448246

Postby bungeejumper » October 6th, 2021, 10:58 am

dealtn wrote:1 in 40 off school approximately

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-58805054

Granddaughter's school class was almost halved last week. Twelve/thirteen year olds, West Midlands. :(

BJ

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448370

Postby 88V8 » October 6th, 2021, 7:02 pm

bungeejumper wrote:Granddaughter's school class was almost halved last week. Twelve/thirteen year olds, West Midlands.

Were they wearing masks?
If not, why not...

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448376

Postby XFool » October 6th, 2021, 7:18 pm

Covid ‘still running rampant’ worldwide, warns creator of Oxford vaccine

The Guardian

Prof Sarah Gilbert says failure to provide jabs to poor countries risks more deaths and dangerous new variants of virus

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448378

Postby dealtn » October 6th, 2021, 7:27 pm

88V8 wrote:
bungeejumper wrote:Granddaughter's school class was almost halved last week. Twelve/thirteen year olds, West Midlands.

Were they wearing masks?
If not, why not...

V8


Probably because they were following current Government guidelines. Is that not reasonable?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448384

Postby 88V8 » October 6th, 2021, 7:44 pm

dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:
bungeejumper wrote:Granddaughter's school class was almost halved last week. Twelve/thirteen year olds, West Midlands.

Were they wearing masks?
If not, why not...

Probably because they were following current Government guidelines. Is that not reasonable?

If guidelines are defective they should be ignored.

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448393

Postby dealtn » October 6th, 2021, 8:43 pm

88V8 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:Were they wearing masks?
If not, why not...

Probably because they were following current Government guidelines. Is that not reasonable?

If guidelines are defective they should be ignored.

V8


And who decides if they are defective? Why not just advocate anarchy?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#448397

Postby jfgw » October 6th, 2021, 9:01 pm

88V8 wrote:
bungeejumper wrote:Granddaughter's school class was almost halved last week. Twelve/thirteen year olds, West Midlands.

Were they wearing masks?
If not, why not...

V8

To get infections over and done with so that classes can get back to normal sooner? New cases in 10—14 year-olds, while still a lot higher than other age groups, have peaked and are now on the way down. New cases in 5—9s and 15—19s, while much lower, have also peaked (England data). Mitigation measures slow down infection rates (and, therefore, spread infections out over a longer period of time), I am not convinced that they do much to prevent infections.

There are arguments both ways, for example, Winter is on the way but jabbing is still being done.

I am not an epidemiologist but suspect that slower transmission (for example, as a result of mask-wearing) is likely to produce longer chains of mutations so that the disease is likely to get less virulent faster (although, possibly, more likely to produce a dangerous variant). On the other hand, achieving high levels of natural immunity sooner may favour variants with greater numbers of mutations, so Covid will become just another cold more quickly. It is a complex issue.

Admissions data by age group are due to be published by the NHS in their monthly report tomorrow, which should be interesting. I will probably post a graph late tomorrow or some time Friday.

As long as we don't get an even more transmissible variant, I reckon we will get back to normal in a few months. But Covid seemed like it was on the way out November last year, and April this year...


Julian F. G. W.


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