scrumpyjack wrote:At least by starting with the over 80s, care workers and NHS workers, there should be a significant reduction in serious cases needing hospital treatment and the NHS will be 'safe' from being overwhelmed. That of course was said to be the reason for having these lockdowns in the first place.
I agree - I personally think what we will find is that after the higher risk brackets (NHS staff, Care home residents and workers, shielders, over 70's, maybe as low as over 60's) the government will have to take this sort of sentiment into account - they have been saying for ages the need for the shutdowns is to protect the NHS and the most vulnerable as the main driver.
If all the most vulnerable to serious illness and death (of course not everyone, as any of us could be affected) are vaccinated I suspect the restrictions will move to guidelines - don't go out unless you have to if you are concerned, wear masks, perhaps some continued reduced capacity in bars and restaurants, on flights, cruises etc - but otherwise things will be a lot closer to normal, say Tier 1 or even lower, as soon as the big risk areas are covered. The nay-sayers on the Government benches and by then most Labour MPs if there are no more financial rescues will force this, in my opinion.
Otherwise we could still be in tier 2 until about July which may be as long as it take to jab everyone who will take the vaccine.
Of course if life does start to be a bit more normal that early there then becomes a danger that on-the-fence semi anti vaxers will feel they don't need the vaccine, which would not be good; in some respects the delay of a return of normality is a good prompt to get as many people to accept the vaccine as possible. These people will hopefully be further pressured by a) early recipients not dying from the vaccine (!) b) workplaces asking staff to get vaccinated c) leisure and especially travel restrictions for those not vaccinated (though if there is no "passport" this might be difficult to police).
Bottom line - I think the Government will have to do something to ease restrictions once the priority groups are covered.