Coronavirus - Modelling Aspects Only
Posted: April 3rd, 2020, 11:20 am
Coronavirus - modelling aspects only please
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Nimrod103 wrote:A couple of newspaper articles today were interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... l-is-wrong
So the death toll is rising strongly, but the lumpiness is probably due to undercounting in the past and maybe even overcounting now(?). The histogram in this article is interesting because quite clearly the low death reports on 28/29th March were because it was a weekend.
ttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04 ... val-covid/
Oxford and Imperial say they respect each others work, but either one of them is wrong, or maybe both are wrong.
zico wrote:Could you please repost the telegraph link - I can't access it.
johnhemming wrote:Another information problem is that there is a varying delay between date of death and date of reporting of death. This varies in a number of ways so that it is relatively difficult to track the daily rate of deaths with precision for perhaps 5 days. In the end one would assume the government have figures as to admissions with breathing problems (not all of which have Covid 19, not all of those will die), that is a useful statistic from which to see how things are going.
The death rate of those admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 has topped 50%, according to the latest figures.
The figures come from data compiled by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) based on a sample of 2,249 coronavirus patients.
The data showed that 50.1% (346) of the 690 patients in the sample whose care outcomes were known, had died. The other 344 had been discharged.
The remaining patients, 1,559, were reported still to be in critical care.
zico wrote:I'm trying to download a couple of charts I uploaded to Imgur - let's see if it works.
https://imgur.com/a/RQe7Jpp
.
zico wrote:
The important figure is the new cases, which is down 17% on the previous few days total.
It's a daily increase of 9.8% (I used 10% in my model, so no need to update it).
dealtn wrote:zico wrote:
The important figure is the new cases, which is down 17% on the previous few days total.
It's a daily increase of 9.8% (I used 10% in my model, so no need to update it).
Confused. Which is it? Or are you referring to 2 things here?
What is down 17%, and what is an increase of 9.8%?
regards
zico wrote:dealtn wrote:zico wrote:
The important figure is the new cases, which is down 17% on the previous few days total.
It's a daily increase of 9.8% (I used 10% in my model, so no need to update it).
Confused. Which is it? Or are you referring to 2 things here?
What is down 17%, and what is an increase of 9.8%?
regards
Sorry, it is confusing. The daily new cases figure is down 17% (a very good thing) and the cumulative new cases figure has increased by 9.8%.