The Lemon Fool

We (should) know from regular colds more-or-less how infectious bugs spread. Proximity to an infected person, especially the breath. Substantially mitigated but far from entirely de-risked by decent ventilation.

Over the past nine months or so we've had isolation and "social distancing" making it harder for such bugs to propagate. So when a strain is better at dealing with those hurdles, Darwinian natural selection naturally favoured it, and it rapidly became a dominant strain. What could be more natural?

That of course is an untested hypothesis. How would one test it? Would anyone even notice, let alone remark on it, if a more infectious but non-serious strain of common cold had emerged for the same reason? Unlikely, because common colds go "below the radar" for collecting statistics at that kind of level. One doesn't medically test cold sufferers for anything, let alone new strains!

Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.

Darwin Part 3: the Award

Can we offer a Societal Darwin Award for societies that have got the worst of both worlds: both rampant covid and massive disruption to social, cultural and economic life? And that double down on failed policies? There are quite a few contenders!

UncleEbenezer wrote:Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.

Alternatively it could be the Covid vaccines have been created using new technology, compared to the old technology flu vaccines.

Novavax, who are trialling a new covid vaccine based on the spike protein, have also developed a flu vaccine, using the same technology which seems to be more effective than the standard flu vaccine:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/n ... al-phase-3

Disclosure: I have a strong interest in Novavvax, as I am on their covid vaccine clinical trial!

FD

funduffer wrote:

UncleEbenezer wrote:Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.

Alternatively it could be the Covid vaccines have been created using new technology, compared to the old technology flu vaccines.

Novavax, who are trialling a new covid vaccine based on the spike protein, have also developed a flu vaccine, using the same technology which seems to be more effective than the standard flu vaccine:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/n ... al-phase-3

Disclosure: I have a strong interest in Novavvax, as I am on their covid vaccine clinical trial!

FD

A "new technology" 'flu vaccine would also be novel to the virus it targets. Therefore the same argument would indeed predict that it too be more effective than familiar vaccines. But it won't be novel forever, and the who knows how the virus will react?

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine.

Yes, but influenza works differently from a coronavirus so you can't make a straight comparison.

We need an annual 'flu vaccine because the virus changes rapidly every year. But this isn't a *response* to the vaccine (or mostly not. It could have some effect). It's due just to 'flu biology.

The 'flu virus mutates speedily in any case, and can also infect multiple species. It also has the ability to undergo 're-assortment': where an animal has simultaneous infections of different strains, such as a human and a duck strain co-infecting a pig, genes from the different strains can re-combine in different ways to create a brand new strain, wildly different from previous ones. This is the big source of 'flu pandemic strains. I remember being taught that many 'flu pandemics arise in countries where humans and various domestic animals live in close proximity to each other, making this re-assortment more likely.

Heavyweight academic info here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5578040/

The 'flu virus lacks a proof-reading function when it replicates its RNA - one reason for its high mutation rate. Animals and plants use proof-reading/error correcting when DNA replicates to reduce the error rate. Coronoaviruses though are a bit unusual in that they do have a proof-reading gene. So Coronaviruses mutate, but it's not in the same league as 'flu. Simply the short generation time, and the untold billions of particles means that there are still plentiful mutations about.

Here's a quote from a paper than explains proof-reading and mutation quite well:

"RNA virus replication typically has a high error rate (or low viral fidelity) that results in the virus existing as diverse populations of genome mutants or ‘‘quasispecies’’ (Denison et al., 2011). While low replicative fidelity allows the RNA viruses to adapt to different replicative environments and selective pressures, it is also associated with an increased chance of error catastrophe leading to viral extinction."
Cribbed from:
https://www.cell.com/molecular-cell/pdf/S1097-2765(20)30518-9.pdf

This is an interesting and long article on whether the Covid virus occurred by Darwinian processes or was an escape from a laboratory:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... heory.html

Regards,

not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

pje16 wrote:not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

A head case, obviously, but not as unusual as you might think. Known as pica, and quite common in prisons. https://www.menshealth.com/health/a1954 ... -disorder/

Anyway, nobody's going to accuse this guy of having a screw loose. He's got hundreds!

BJ

must admit I wasn't expecting to find it was a known medical condtion
tempted to call it Pica (mix)

UncleEbenezer wrote:So when a strain is better at dealing with those hurdles, Darwinian natural selection naturally favoured it, and it rapidly became a dominant strain. What could be more natural?

Flip that thinking a bit and I'll agree

Darwinism doesn't favour anything - it works in the other direction, it filters stuff
- it doesn't make things arise or appear; it gets rid of variants

It's a subtle but important difference; not so much for the mechanics thereof but certainly is for understanding stuff
- e.g. social distancing did not cause Alpha/Delta to appear or proliferation, even if it did suppress earlier variants more efficiently

-sd

Nut bolts washers and screws.

John

redsturgeon wrote:Nut bolts washers and screws.

John

I learned it as spectacles, testicles, wallet and watch
- must vary with region
- sd

servodude wrote:

redsturgeon wrote:Nut bolts washers and screws.

John

I learned it as spectacles, testicles, wallet and watch
- must vary with region
- sd

Two different origins, I think. The first is about the lunatic who raped washerwomen then ran away (Nut screws washers bolts).

The second is about a Rabbi crossing himself and was "Teeth, testicles, wallet, watch".

But I digress.

TJH

bungeejumper wrote:A head case, obviously,
BJ

A nutcase, one might say? Bit screwed up.

An MRI would have sorted him out.....

Stompa wrote:An MRI would have sorted him out.....

LOL, wouldn't it just? They ask you whether you've got body piercings or deeply lodged bullets before they put you into the big magnetic machine, but I don't remember being quizzed about a whole Meccano set.

BJ

pje16 wrote:not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

Perhaps he's evolving into a robot?

I just thought he was a bit nuts