9873210 wrote:Lootman wrote:I agree. I think some observers think that the infection count is the only thing that matters when in reality it is one of several things that matter.
Lootman wrote: For me the overriding factor is that closing all borders is extreme, and that would not be an acceptable solution for me (I have been overseas three times since the beginning of 2020).
So closing borders is not one of several things that matter, but the only thing that matters.
It's ridiculous. Every winter we get hit by various strains of flu. We don't close the borders 'just in case' a new flu variant emerges.
The country has gone stark raving bonkers.
I sincerely hope that Boris is just letting people fret about the borders while they get a couple more months of vaccination under the bridge, and then, bam!, he'll just open up and any thought or suggestion of closing the borders will just evaporate and people will wonder what all the fuss was about.
If the question of closing the borders and / or testing travellers all the time really is a serious consideration beyond a few weeks, and not just something to distract the masses at the moment while they got the bulk of the vaccinations out of the way, then we really have as a nation well and truly lost the plot.
Once the majority of people have built up reasonable tolerance to lessen the severe effects, then what does it matter if the virus is circulating?
Chris Whitty has already said that we ain't gonna get rid of it, and it will become like the flu, meaning every winter the NHS will just have to prepare to deal with a certain number of cases, etc.
I'm not going to bother searching for the link since most people are entrenched in their views anyway, but there was an article on Science Daily several weeks ago reporting research that suggested the most probable evolution of Covid is to become like the common cold. The authors suggested that if the common cold had appeared anew, today, its effects would probably be similar to covid. But because most people catch the cold freely circulating in the population while they are young, this builds up immunity or some degree of tolerance, so that when you become older catching a cold is no longer big deal.
The evidence seems to suggest similar is likely to happen with Covid - already it's clear it's the older people significantly more greatly affected. Younger people seem largely unperturbed.
The evidence seems to suggest that the vaccines are '100%' effective against severe covid and death, and it's expected that even for variants for which their headline efficacy is poor, it is still anticipated that there will be protective effects against severe covid. Effectively giving a means of backfilling 'tolerance' to the virus in the elderly who didn't acquire it while younger for obvious reasons.
And then, it really is then no different to the flu or common cold.
We have some vaccines with our best guesses. We may guess right, we may guess wrong. But they should still provide a degree of tolerance.
But we don't close the borders 'just in case'.
Once the bulk of the ('at risk') population is vaccinated, it won't really matter if cases get imported, just like we don't overly worry about the flu.