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India variant

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
9873210
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Re: India variant

#410103

Postby 9873210 » May 7th, 2021, 4:43 pm

XFool wrote:
Lanark wrote:The US marines do have some unfortunate medical history that's come to light in the last 5 years which may explain this.

So I wouldn't assume this hesitancy will apply more broadly, there are serious long term side effects of Covid to consider.

For decades, thousands of U.S. soldiers took the military up on an offer that was hard to refuse: a few days off from the drudgery of base life in exchange for letting scientists run them through a few safety tests. Those who accepted, however, were in for an appalling surprise.

From just after World War I into the 1970s, soldiers and sailors were exposed to mustard gas, experimental nerve-agent antidotes and other toxic substances, all without their knowledge. Now the survivors want to know exactly what the military did to them. They want medical care. Yet the Pentagon seems intent on treating them like malingerers trying to get out of KP duty.

At least 70,000 troops are covered by a class-action suit claiming that these experiments caused cancers, emphysema and other serious illnesses.

Yes. But that was that and that was then.

Now we have a virus causing a global pandemic. Everyone is involved, in every country and continent in the world (apart from Antarctica, AFAIK). Plus we have vaccines which are to be administered (hopefully) to everyone, in every country and continent in the world (even in Antarctica?). Not just to the US Marines.

So... What is the (logical?) connection between the two situations? I am bemused.

Interestingly (IMO) this same issue seems to come up wrt minority ethnic groups in the UK. But as I saw a black minister saying on the TV news last night about his congregation: "But they've all grown up with vaccinations! All their life... BCG, the rest...". Then again, I also heard that LBC programme with David Lammy, on the same topic...


The logical connection is that the authorities have shown that they are not to be trusted. This is why "don't do stupid stuff" needs to be a foundational principle of government. The problem with "that was then, there is no evidence of us doing stupid stuff for decades" is that we only know about the old stupid stuff because records were released while files about newer stupid stuff are still classified.

But you don't have to worry much about the marines. When a vaccine is authorized rather than emergency use authorized they will be ordered to take it and they will salute and hold out their arms.

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Re: India variant

#410105

Postby murraypaul » May 7th, 2021, 4:54 pm

9873210 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Another massive category of people displaying "vaccine hesitancy" (a stupid euphemism in my opinion for those determined not to be vaccinated)

That's a silly and counterproductive attitude. There are certainly some people who are determined not to be vaccinated, but there are also people who can be persuaded. But if you never try you never will.


From a BBC report today:

The main concerns of people hesitant about getting a coronavirus jab are around the vaccines being safe or necessary, Office for National Statistics (ONS) research shows.

People who were unwilling or unable to get a jab had given it "considerable thought" and were not "anti-vaxxers", the ONS says.

All gave one of two key reasons - that they did not trust the vaccines were safe, and they did not feel the vaccines were necessary for them.

The research saw 50 in-depth interviews carried out in February and March to explore the attitudes of people hesitant about getting the vaccine.

Those who did not believe the vaccines were safe often spoke about the speed in which they were developed, and believed that not enough time had passed to know about long-term side effects, the ONS says.


And, related:
Most adults under 40s are to be offered an alternative to the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine

Prof Wei Shen Lim, from the JCVI, says they are putting "a high priority on safety" and he expects the move "to boost confidence" in the vaccination programme

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Re: India variant

#410109

Postby XFool » May 7th, 2021, 5:02 pm

9873210 wrote:The logical connection is that the authorities have shown that they are not to be trusted. This is why "don't do stupid stuff" needs to be a foundational principle of government. The problem with "that was then, there is no evidence of us doing stupid stuff for decades" is that we only know about the old stupid stuff because records were released while files about newer stupid stuff are still classified.

But what's new? Also, what's 'different' for minority groups now, than for the mainstream population now?

If this was an illness specifically affecting a minority group, or there were different vaccines offered to different groups, one could sympathise and understand. But if minority ethnic groups are at risk at being 'done over' then, in this instance, so are the mainstream white population. Or not. So...

BTW. Regarding that David Lammy programme I heard, what amazed me was that while I was expecting a lot of people to phone in to explain why they hadn't had/wouldn't be having the vaccination - and Lammy was asking them - my recollection (if accurate) was that nobody wanted to say anything at all about that! Sure, they wanted to talk about racial discrimination or prejudice (why not?) but THAT question was clearly 'something else'. I recall Lammy asking one women the question directly - "Have you/will you..." - she paused. She started talking again... No answer to the question.

Rightly or wrongly, I was left with a powerful impression: "This is a black 'thing'..." Though, being white not black, I cannot possibly tell you what kind of a 'thing' this is.

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Re: India variant

#410110

Postby murraypaul » May 7th, 2021, 5:03 pm

Reasons giving for not wanting the vaccine, UK, 31st March to 25th April

Code: Select all

%age Reason
41   I am worried about the long term effects on my health
37   I am worried about the side effects
33   I would wait to see how well the vaccine works
25   I do not think it will be safe
20   I do not feel the coronavirus (COVID-19) is a personal risk
18   I would prefer someone in more need of the vaccine to receive it before me
13   I am worried about the effect on being able to have children in the future
11   I am worried about the effect on an existing health condition
10   I do not think it will work
9   I am pregnant or trying to get pregnant and afraid of worried about the effects on my baby
9   I am against vaccines in general
9   Other (please specify)
8   I am scared of needles
6   I do not think I need the vaccine as I have already had the coronavirus (COVID-19)
3   I am worried the vaccine will give me the coronavirus (COVID-19) 
3   I am worried it might be painful
2   I have been advised by a health or medical professional not to get the vaccine 
2   Don’t know
2   Prefer not to say
1   I am worried about catching the coronavirus (COVID-19) at a vaccination centre or GP surgery
1   I am unable to travel to the vaccine centre

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Re: India variant

#410257

Postby Lanark » May 8th, 2021, 12:57 pm

A lot of the press around India has been indicating that the Indian variant might be faster spreading than others, but I just did a quick check on the FT coronavirus tracker and the death rate per 100,000 population is less than 1/4 of the death rate in the UK back in January.

Even if we assume that's undercounted by a factor of 10, that would make it just over double the UK rate in January and levelling off.

Not good but not so different as the media are making out. Given the living conditions, low vitamin D levels and inadequate healthcare, it makes me think the Indian variant is not significantly different to all the others.

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Re: India variant

#410270

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 8th, 2021, 2:01 pm

XFool wrote:BTW. Regarding that David Lammy programme I heard, what amazed me was that while I was expecting a lot of people to phone in to explain why they hadn't had/wouldn't be having the vaccination - and Lammy was asking them - my recollection (if accurate) was that nobody wanted to say anything at all about that! Sure, they wanted to talk about racial discrimination or prejudice (why not?) but THAT question was clearly 'something else'. I recall Lammy asking one women the question directly - "Have you/will you..." - she paused. She started talking again... No answer to the question.

Rightly or wrongly, I was left with a powerful impression: "This is a black 'thing'..." Though, being white not black, I cannot possibly tell you what kind of a 'thing' this is.

If it was Lammy - and his selection of vox pops - I wouldn't take that as indicative of anything at all.

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Re: India variant

#411447

Postby bungeejumper » May 12th, 2021, 5:59 pm

Some sobering stuff coming in from Bolton, apparently. Cases have broadly trebled in the last three weeks, with a high incidence of the Indian variant. And with under-25s accounting for a large slice of that. (721 reported cases yesterday among the under-26s, says the BBC, although those figures might be skewed by a high rate of testing among schoolchildren.) Apparently the town's hospitality industry is in brown-trousers mode about next Monday's planned reopening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-57075618

I am not particularly well versed in the convoluted arts of interpreting covid statistics, but I'm sure there are some here who can say whether the Beeb's report feels right?

BJ

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Re: India variant

#411468

Postby Julian » May 12th, 2021, 8:21 pm

bungeejumper wrote:Some sobering stuff coming in from Bolton, apparently. Cases have broadly trebled in the last three weeks, with a high incidence of the Indian variant. And with under-25s accounting for a large slice of that. (721 reported cases yesterday among the under-26s, says the BBC, although those figures might be skewed by a high rate of testing among schoolchildren.) Apparently the town's hospitality industry is in brown-trousers mode about next Monday's planned reopening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-57075618

I am not particularly well versed in the convoluted arts of interpreting covid statistics, but I'm sure there are some here who can say whether the Beeb's report feels right?

BJ

So many unknowns, at least for me, makes me throw my hands up yet again and find myself unable to form an opinion.

On the one hand I am reading in a number of places that this B.1.617.2 variant might be up to 60% more infectious than the B.1.1.117 (Kent) variant where even the Kent variant caused the U.K. and elsewhere problems in terms of how long it took lockdowns to bring things under control which is at first glance concerning.

But then on the other hand, if as still seems to be fairly widely believed in the scientific community current vaccines will still offer strong protection against hospitalisation and death, is it still society-affecting (i.e. potentially precipitating another lockdown) if we have a substantial increase in mostly easily-recovered-from infections?

And then again, do we still need to be worried about cases even without deaths due to the increased opportunity for novel potential escape variants?

Since I have no grasp on the answers to the above my personal answer is “don’t know what to think” and I fear that right now, pending more understanding of the properties of this particular variant and the evolutionary/mutation properties of SARS-CoV-2 in general, governments might be on somewhat uncertain grounds as well. There is still an awful lot of research left to do.

- Julian

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Re: India variant

#411490

Postby Itsallaguess » May 12th, 2021, 10:00 pm

Julian wrote:
But then on the other hand, if as still seems to be fairly widely believed in the scientific community current vaccines will still offer strong protection against hospitalisation and death, is it still society-affecting (i.e. potentially precipitating another lockdown) if we have a substantial increase in mostly easily-recovered-from infections?


But even if they do still offer strong protection against hospitalisation and death, that's only really relevant where local communities are willing to take those vaccinations up when offered them, and from a recent article in the Telegraph, the Mayor of Bolton has said that vaccine take-up has been slow in the area.

I suspect that we're sadly reaching the stage where vaccine scepticism is likely to come into very stark focus...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: India variant

#411502

Postby Julian » May 12th, 2021, 10:44 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Julian wrote:
But then on the other hand, if as still seems to be fairly widely believed in the scientific community current vaccines will still offer strong protection against hospitalisation and death, is it still society-affecting (i.e. potentially precipitating another lockdown) if we have a substantial increase in mostly easily-recovered-from infections?


But even if they do still offer strong protection against hospitalisation and death, that's only really relevant where local communities are willing to take those vaccinations up when offered them, and from a recent article in the Telegraph, the Mayor of Bolton has said that vaccine take-up has been slow in the area.

I suspect that we're sadly reaching the stage where vaccine scepticism is likely to come into very stark focus...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

That’s a good point. I noticed the day before yesterday that the figures reported for vaccinations in the previous 24 hours (9th May) was quite low, 287,797 combined 1st & 2nd doses for the day. Admittedly the 9th was a Sunday but often Sunday figures are still much higher. Today’s figures for yesterday (Tuesday) are 485,260 all doses so still a fair way off the 600,000 - 700,000 we’ve seen on quite a few days. We were warned of vaccine supply shortages in April so I wonder if shortages are still an issue or if we are hitting increasing hesitancy as we move down the age groups. It is something that I did worry might happen, the young “I’m indestructible, I don’t need any pharmaceutical help (except to enjoy myself!)” attitude. I suppose we will see data soon enough. Sometimes one has search for it if it isn’t accurately reported by the mainstream media but the U.K. does seem to be doing a pretty good job of data collection and analysis e.g. the very large scale observation analyses on vaccine efficacy against various severities of disease.

- Julian

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Re: India variant

#411521

Postby Itsallaguess » May 13th, 2021, 5:40 am

Julian wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
I suspect that we're sadly reaching the stage where vaccine scepticism is likely to come into very stark focus...


I noticed the day before yesterday that the figures reported for vaccinations in the previous 24 hours (9th May) was quite low, 287,797 combined 1st & 2nd doses for the day.

Admittedly the 9th was a Sunday but often Sunday figures are still much higher.

Today’s figures for yesterday (Tuesday) are 485,260 all doses so still a fair way off the 600,000 - 700,000 we’ve seen on quite a few days. We were warned of vaccine supply shortages in April so I wonder if shortages are still an issue or if we are hitting increasing hesitancy as we move down the age groups. It is something that I did worry might happen, the young “I’m indestructible, I don’t need any pharmaceutical help (except to enjoy myself!)” attitude.

I suppose we will see data soon enough. Sometimes one has search for it if it isn’t accurately reported by the mainstream media but the U.K. does seem to be doing a pretty good job of data collection and analysis e.g. the very large scale observation analyses on vaccine efficacy against various severities of disease.


I'm less concerned about the raw vaccination numbers themselves than I am about how broadly spread out the vaccine-hesitant are, or aren't...

If large groups of those vaccine-hesitant are local-community-based, rather than more evenly spread, then it was always likely that we were going to see some degree of community-level issues as we moved out of lockdown, and of course for that to happen at the same time as we're now also having to deal with a growing spread of the more virulent Indian variant is highly unfortunate, but was always likely to happen to some degree anyway even with the prominent Kent variant, as those phases of lockdown-protocol easing then met up against the 'focussed-vaccine-hesitancy' that some areas of the country have sadly had to deal with.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: India variant

#411539

Postby funduffer » May 13th, 2021, 8:21 am

It is becoming clear that the Indian strain (B.1.617.2) is growing exponentially in various UK locations (Eg Bolton, Blackburn, Bedford, various London boroughs, Long Eaton). The cat is out the bag, and it seems destined to become the predominant strain in the weeks to come, overtaking the Kent strain that we have had for some months now. As quoted above, there is evidence it is 60% more infectious.

It seems to be growing particularly in the young (i.e the unvaccinated), but so far there is no impact on hospital admissions nor deaths. However, this could just be a lag effect, or it could be that the vaccines are still effective in preventing serious illness.

Sage are meeting today to look at this variant of concern.

It seems to me that this information suggests that a third wave is more likely, and that the government will be faced with a difficult decision on delaying the Stage 4 of the opening-up roadmap, due on 21st June. I think it will depend on the vaccine effectiveness against this variant, and how rapidly it takes off. Long covid in the young is a worry, even if the vaccine is effective.

I am not very optimistic at present.

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Re: India variant

#411548

Postby Itsallaguess » May 13th, 2021, 8:50 am

funduffer wrote:
Sage are meeting today to look at this variant of concern.

It seems to me that this information suggests that a third wave is more likely, and that the government will be faced with a difficult decision on delaying the Stage 4 of the opening-up roadmap, due on 21st June. I think it will depend on the vaccine effectiveness against this variant, and how rapidly it takes off. Long covid in the young is a worry, even if the vaccine is effective.

I am not very optimistic at present.


I think we might be able to look at the situation in India and at least see that a levelling-off of infections and deaths (accepting that it's likely that there's huge amount of noise in the attributed figures...) might point towards the new Indian strain as being primarily an issue around transmissibility, rather than perhaps the 'worst-case-scenario' of it being much more deadly when compared to other more transmissible variants such as the Kent one that's previously dominated in the UK -

India recorded more than 4,000 Covid-19 deaths for a second straight day on Thursday, while infections stayed below 400,000 for a fourth day, though the virus has become rampant in rural areas where cases can go unreported due to a lack of testing.

Experts remain unsure when numbers will peak and concern is growing about the transmissibility of the variant that is driving infections in India and spreading worldwide.

Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, said most models had predicted a peak this week and that the country could be seeing signs of that trend.

Still, the number of new cases each day is large enough to overwhelm hospitals, she said on Twitter. "The key word is cautious optimism."


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-inquiry-vaccines-india-variant-pfizer/

It'll be interesting to see what comes out of today's SAGE meeting where they are due to specifically discuss our own Indian-variant hotspots..

Of course, even an issue of 'transmissibility' can't be played down when we're talking about infections running rampant in areas where vaccine take-up has been low, because of course it's likely that older populations in those areas are likely to be exposed to risks that areas with a higher vaccine take-up might not suffer as badly from...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess
Last edited by Itsallaguess on May 13th, 2021, 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India variant

#411549

Postby Mike4 » May 13th, 2021, 8:52 am

funduffer wrote:It is becoming clear that the Indian strain (B.1.617.2) is growing exponentially in various UK locations (Eg Bolton, Blackburn, Bedford, various London boroughs, Long Eaton). The cat is out the bag, and it seems destined to become the predominant strain in the weeks to come, overtaking the Kent strain that we have had for some months now. As quoted above, there is evidence it is 60% more infectious.



So once again a policy of waiting, keeping an eye on it, collecting data, delaying making decisions and taking no action until a situation becomes dire, is demonstrated to be to worst possible way of dealing with a pandemic.

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Re: India variant

#411570

Postby 88V8 » May 13th, 2021, 9:55 am

Mike4 wrote:So once again a policy of waiting, keeping an eye on it, collecting data, delaying making decisions and taking no action until a situation becomes dire, is demonstrated to be to worst possible way of dealing with a pandemic.

Yes, but in these woke times politicians might consider an appropriate soundbite problematic.... Still In Lockdown, Blame BAME.

Primary care data analysed by QResearch indicates that, for several vaccines, Black African and Black Caribbean groups are less likely to be vaccinated (50%) compared to White groups (70%).
Furthermore, for new vaccines (post-2013), adults in minority ethnic groups were less likely to have received the vaccine compared to those in White groups (by 10-20%).
Recent representative survey data from the UK Household Longitudinal study shows overall high levels of willingness (82%) to take up the COVID-19 vaccine. However, marked differences existed by ethnicity, with Black ethnic groups the most likely to be COVID-19 vaccine hesitant, followed by the Pakistani/Bangladeshi group.
Other White ethnic groups (which includes Eastern European communities) also had higher levels of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy than White UK/White Irish ethnicity


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/952716/s0979-factors-influencing-vaccine-uptake-minority-ethnic-groups.pdf

V8

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Re: India variant

#411575

Postby redsturgeon » May 13th, 2021, 10:06 am

Interesting that my locality is now offering vaccines to those in the 32-39 age range from yesterday. This may suggest increasing vaccine hesitancy as the age range drops.

John

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Re: India variant

#411609

Postby murraypaul » May 13th, 2021, 11:32 am

From the latest ONS survey: (About three weeks out of date)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... hto25april
In the latest period, 31 March to 25 April 2021, based on adults in Great Britain, we found:
  • more than 9 in 10 (93%) adults reported positive sentiment towards the vaccine, while 7% of adults reported vaccine hesitancy
  • vaccine hesitancy has remained relatively stable, 7% compared with 6% in the previous period (17 February to 14 March 2021), however this is a decrease from 9% earlier in the year (13 January to 7 February 2021); with this trend observed across most groups
  • around 1 in 8 (13%) adults aged 16 to 29 years reported vaccine hesitancy, the highest of all age groups
  • around 1 in 3 (30%) Black or Black British adults reported vaccine hesitancy, the highest compared with all ethnic groups
  • around 1 in 8 (12%) adults in the most deprived areas of England (based on Index of Multiple Deprivation) reported higher vaccine hesitancy, compared with 4% of adults in the least deprived areas of England

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Re: India variant

#411640

Postby Julian » May 13th, 2021, 12:38 pm

Mike4 wrote:
funduffer wrote:It is becoming clear that the Indian strain (B.1.617.2) is growing exponentially in various UK locations (Eg Bolton, Blackburn, Bedford, various London boroughs, Long Eaton). The cat is out the bag, and it seems destined to become the predominant strain in the weeks to come, overtaking the Kent strain that we have had for some months now. As quoted above, there is evidence it is 60% more infectious.



So once again a policy of waiting, keeping an eye on it, collecting data, delaying making decisions and taking no action until a situation becomes dire, is demonstrated to be to worst possible way of dealing with a pandemic.

It's always difficult (I should probably say impossible) to fully critique policy decisions without being able to see all the data that the decision makers were seeing at the time of making their decisions. Is there compelling evidence to say that this surge in cases over the last week was genuinely out-of-control virus replication during a 7 day period or was it due at least in large part to accelerated discovery of existing infection including asymptomatic cases due to massive surge testing? Might the actual transmission rate be at least somewhat less alarming and how many of these infections might already be largely contained by contact tracing and isolation? Also what is the best data available at the moment on the efficacy of the Pfizer and Astrazeneca vaccines particularly against hospitalisation and death due to the Indian variant? We as outsiders simply don't know the full background.

Having said the above I admit that I am still concerned and the biggest thing that would reassure me to a large extent would be data on the vaccines' efficacy, particularly Pfizer and Astrazeneca, against the Indian variant of concern. As more people get Moderna that is also of increasing interest but right now our vaccine defences are almost entirely built on those first two vaccines.

The other thing is what would have been the government's appropriate response? Delay the 17th May unlock? Delay the green-list holiday scheme? All of those were options a few days ago but now that the announcement has been made on both I think the Government would have needed strong evidence that the current vaccines will no longer be able to significantly reduce hospitalisations and deaths due to this new variant if it is to actively roll back any measures and who knows what early data they have access to, possibly both early observational studies from India and in-vitro studies from UK labs and elsewhere.

Personally I think the appropriate level of prudence if data is still being collected might have been to go ahead with next Monday's unlock with the exception that rule-of-6(*) would not yet be permitted inside people's homes with that maybe delayed until the 21st June step. Even before the Indian variant I felt that the single "big bang" approach to allowing unmasked inside mixing wasn't really in the spirit of a phased step-by-step-and-analyse-the-effects approach especially when indoor mixing now seems to be the major transmission mechanism. To me opening up rule-of-6 indoors in 2 stages, Covid-safe hospitality & entertainment first (i.e. 17th May) and then in people's own homes at the next step, always seemed just a bit more prudent. The advantage is that hospitality and entertainment inside areas are all forced to take Covid prevention measures and to take contact tracing details so it's less drastic than opening up indoor mixing in private households. Admittedly some people are already flouting that indoor mixing rule, I personally know some people who have been mixing indoors in small groups for about 3 months now (something that I have refused to participate in), but moving from the current all-in-one-go indoor unlock to a 2-stage indoor unlock would at least have sent a message and I would hope that many would have adhered to the revised guidelines. Personally I will be implementing my modified plan for at least the next few weeks. I will go into uncrowded and well ventilated hospitality venues if the weather isn't nice enough to be outside but I will still not visit other people's private homes or allow them to enter mine. With the weather getting nicer and with indoor hospitality soon to be no longer off limits that really doesn't seem to me to be a huge restriction on my lifestyle at least for the next few weeks.

- Julian

(*) Rule of 6 as modified for this current lockdown, i.e. 6 people or 2 households whichever is the greater.

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Re: India variant

#411660

Postby funduffer » May 13th, 2021, 2:07 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Interesting that my locality is now offering vaccines to those in the 32-39 age range from yesterday. This may suggest increasing vaccine hesitancy as the age range drops.

John

In Blackburn, where the Indian variant is prevalent, vaccines are now being offered to all over 18’s!

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Re: India variant

#411694

Postby 88V8 » May 13th, 2021, 5:08 pm

Heard on Times Radio today that fully vaccinated individuals in India have caught the India variant, it only made them mildly ill.
Presumably it also made them infectious.
The chap speaking...a doctor... thinks we should delay our unlocking 2-3 weeks.

V8


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