The Lemon Fool

[rant]

Have we learned nothing?

Bloke on Times Radio this morning saying the highly infectious India variant containing two mutations has arrived here now and over 100 cases have been identified, but because the 'numbers are low", the only action required is to "keep an eye on it".

Yeah well, keep an eye on it until the numbers are much bigger? Then what? What IS the point of sitting on our hands and waiting until the numbers get much worse? Surely this is what has worked out so badly for us in the past. NOW is the time to be stamping it out while the numbers are still "low" and traceable.

Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.

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Mike4 wrote:[rant]

Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.

[/rant]

Perhaps the powers that be are waiting until Boris has gone to India on his planned trip later this month, and then ban incoming flights

bh

BellaHubby wrote:

Mike4 wrote:[rant]

Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.

[/rant]

Perhaps the powers that be are waiting until Boris has gone to India on his planned trip later this month, and then ban incoming flights

bh

He couldn't be the first national leader to come down with it twice.. could he?

Mike4 wrote:Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.

,
No, and that would be hard anyway given how many flyers from India route through third countries.

The standard response is to put India on the red list, which it is not so far. That could be done quickly if the "experts" decide it is warranted.

By the way, reports today are that there will only be 8 countries on the UK "green" list from May 17th:

US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar and Malta.

Lootman wrote:

Mike4 wrote:Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.

,
No, and that would be hard anyway given how many flyers from India route through third countries.

The standard response is to put India on the red list, which it is not so far. That could be done quickly if the "experts" decide it is warranted.

By the way, reports today are that there will only be 8 countries on the UK "green" list from May 17th:

US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Iceland, Gibraltar and Malta.

But the experts have decided it is warranted. I've heard several in the media today calling for travel from India to be stopped. Here is one example. Dr John Campbell having a right go about it, 21 minutes in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FpMpYJ ... hnCampbell

It's the government dragging their feet as usual. We all know they will put India on the red list eventually, but eight weeks late and after all the damage has been done. Far better to do it now and get accused of over-reacting, than do it late and have to implement a third lockdown.

Mike4 wrote:It's the government dragging their feet as usual. We all know they will put India on the red list eventually, but eight weeks late and after all the damage has been done. Far better to do it now and get accused of over-reacting, than do it late and have to implement a third lockdown.

India - like the US - may now be too powerful for our leaders to dare to make a move against it, no matter how strong the reasons. And talking of the US, are they still #1 in the world for covid infections?

As for that "green" list, it looks like pure fantasy. Oz/NZ - even if they accepted Brits in, what about stopovers on those flights? Air travel is a huge vector for spread of lurgies, even more so if it involves a wait at a big hub. And in any case, if Oz/NZ, why not those East Asian countries that have successfully contained covid?

I loved my visit to Iceland some years back. Methinks this is not the year for a repeat, even if they let Brits in. Still less anywhere in the Med that Brit hordes get funneled towards.

UncleEbenezer wrote:

Mike4 wrote:It's the government dragging their feet as usual. We all know they will put India on the red list eventually, but eight weeks late and after all the damage has been done. Far better to do it now and get accused of over-reacting, than do it late and have to implement a third lockdown.

India - like the US - may now be too powerful for our leaders to dare to make a move against it, no matter how strong the reasons. And talking of the US, are they still #1 in the world for covid infections?

True, but that makes it a political decision and I was countering Looty's assertion that "the experts" were undecided on the matter. They are not undecided, they are advising stopping travel here from India. The government is rejecting their advice because, Looty seems to be suggesting, it would be "hard" to do.

From the FT

At the moment the B.1.617 variant, which has been linked with a surge in cases in India in recent weeks, has been classified by Britain as a “variant under investigation”.

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme, Hopkins said: “To escalate it up the ranking we need to know that it’s increased transmissibility, increased severity, or vaccine-evading, and we just don’t have that yet, but we’re looking at the data on a daily basis.”

She added that scientists were also conducting investigations to determine whether it was spreading within the community.

“The vast majority of the cases we have confirmed are known [to] have come from India and or tested on day two or day eight of their isolation period,” she said.

Best wishes,

Steve

Mike4 wrote:

UncleEbenezer wrote:

Mike4 wrote:It's the government dragging their feet as usual. We all know they will put India on the red list eventually, but eight weeks late and after all the damage has been done. Far better to do it now and get accused of over-reacting, than do it late and have to implement a third lockdown.

India - like the US - may now be too powerful for our leaders to dare to make a move against it, no matter how strong the reasons. And talking of the US, are they still #1 in the world for covid infections?

True, but that makes it a political decision and I was countering Looty's assertion that "the experts" were undecided on the matter. They are not undecided, they are advising stopping travel here from India. The government is rejecting their advice because, Looty seems to be suggesting, it would be "hard" to do.

Not exactly. What I said would be "hard to do" is stopping people actually arriving here from India. Your idea of stopping direct flights would help, but then many fly that route via Turkey, Dubai etc. Moreover some people flying that route are entitled to enter the UK, e.g. have UK passports. So that takes us back to testing and quarantine.

As for whether the experts agree or not, I do not know. But yes, such decisions are always ultimately political and some countries are just too important to ban travel from. For instance Americans have always been able to travel to the UK since this started, despite the US having the most cases on the planet. Like it or not, the UK has taken the view that sealing borders might work for small "out of the way" locations like New Zealand but could never work for a major country that is at the hub of global travel, trade and economic activity. So we do other things like develop and deliver vaccines, which New Zealand has not done.

That does leave a question about whether we should "panic early" or "panic late" for each twist and turn of the covid plot. But again that is a political decision.

I hope that some of those who 'rant' on this Board are letting the scientists know of their views. It would be such a pity for those not to be known to the powers that be.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:I hope that some of those who 'rant' on this Board are letting the scientists know of their views. It would be such a pity for those not to be known to the powers that be.

Dod

I wish that more posters were our national leaders. They make the job sound so easy.

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson cancels India trip amid rising cases https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56800305

India added to Red List

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103

dealtn wrote:India added to Red List

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103

Only from Friday. At least a week after that horse bolted.

UncleEbenezer wrote:

dealtn wrote:India added to Red List

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103

Only from Friday. At least a week after that horse bolted.

Well it's better than the month or two the OP was predicting. A couple of weeks is probably close to the practical minimum I would think, although some would prefer sooner no doubt.

The UK’s Labour shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said almost 100,000 people had flown between India and the UK during January and February, as he accused the British government of not doing enough to keep out coronavirus mutations.

631,500 air travellers arrived in the UK in January, with only around 1% undertaking a hotel quarantine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -contracts

It seems that only when Boris was due to travel there did anyone in gov't check the situation and realise that India is looking very dodgy.
The cases per million may not yet be the worst, but India has a population of 1.3 BILLION, so the raw number of infections in India is now greater than the USA and Brazil combined.

More people = more mutations.

So yet again the government are doing too little too late, they arent going to "RED list" them until Friday, why Friday and not today? why not back in early March when the numbers were obviously rising? And why the "RED list" instead of just closing arrivals completely?

"Hong Kong this week have identified 47 Covid cases just on a single Delhi flight and the UK still have 16 more direct flights, many more indirect flights from India to here before Friday alone."

Say 200 people per flight * 16 = 3200 direct arrivals from India this week.

If we get another 100 or so of those arrivals testing positive in a covid hotel theres a very good chance it will escape into the general population.

The way this is being managed is criminally negligent.

Lanark wrote:So yet again the government are doing too little too late, they arent going to "RED list" them until Friday, why Friday and not today? why not back in early March when the numbers were obviously rising? And why the "RED list" instead of just closing arrivals completely?

I can only speculate on the answers to your question but would guess that:

1) Some notice has to be given to cater for those en route, and to allow people to change plans, cancel arrangements and schedule alternative itineraries.

2) "Red" is realistically as far as the UK can go for any given country, given that people can continue to fly between the two nations via third countries and we would never know. Particularly bearing in mind that there is no legal basis for denying entry to the UK for UK passport holders and visa holders.

Lootman wrote:

Lanark wrote:So yet again the government are doing too little too late, they arent going to "RED list" them until Friday, why Friday and not today? why not back in early March when the numbers were obviously rising? And why the "RED list" instead of just closing arrivals completely?

I can only speculate on the answers to your question but would guess that:

1) Some notice has to be given to cater for those en route, and to allow people to change plans, cancel arrangements and schedule alternative itineraries.

2) "Red" is realistically as far as the UK can go for any given country, given that people can continue to fly between the two nations via third countries and we would never know. Particularly bearing in mind that there is no legal basis for denying entry to the UK for UK passport holders and visa holders.

I don't see why the airports cannot be closed at the drop of a hat. That would fix it.

After all we seem able to do it with our pubs.

Mike4 wrote:

Lootman wrote:

Lanark wrote:So yet again the government are doing too little too late, they arent going to "RED list" them until Friday, why Friday and not today? why not back in early March when the numbers were obviously rising? And why the "RED list" instead of just closing arrivals completely?

I can only speculate on the answers to your question but would guess that:

1) Some notice has to be given to cater for those en route, and to allow people to change plans, cancel arrangements and schedule alternative itineraries.

2) "Red" is realistically as far as the UK can go for any given country, given that people can continue to fly between the two nations via third countries and we would never know. Particularly bearing in mind that there is no legal basis for denying entry to the UK for UK passport holders and visa holders.

I don't see why the airports cannot be closed at the drop of a hat. That would fix it.

After all we seem able to do it with our pubs.

Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

Lootman wrote:

Mike4 wrote:

Lootman wrote:I can only speculate on the answers to your question but would guess that:

1) Some notice has to be given to cater for those en route, and to allow people to change plans, cancel arrangements and schedule alternative itineraries.

2) "Red" is realistically as far as the UK can go for any given country, given that people can continue to fly between the two nations via third countries and we would never know. Particularly bearing in mind that there is no legal basis for denying entry to the UK for UK passport holders and visa holders.

I don't see why the airports cannot be closed at the drop of a hat. That would fix it.

After all we seem able to do it with our pubs.

Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

You've asked this type of question before. Why does someone else always have to do it first?