GrahamPlatt wrote:Fighting the last war here. Next time it’ll be something else.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b03ynts6 makes our lack of PPE look tame in comparison.
I was going to make exactly this point together with that famous military quote: "Armies prepare to fight their last war, rather than their next war" or "Generals prepare to fight their father's war" plus quite a few other versions kicking around out there, all un-attributed as far as I can tell.
Don't get me wrong, I love that John started this thread because it is a very important subject that I have thought about a fair bit, and he presents a good starting list of questions/issues, but all of those need to be answered with that "don't prepare for the last war" warning in mind at all times. There's nothing wrong with preparing for a repeat of a very similar pandemic as long as one also tries to consider how the issues might present differently next time, or completely new issues arise. One can never by definition address totally unknown unknowns because they are unknown but one can at least try to ensure that response planning is as flexible as it can be and not locked into considering only an action replay of the last "war".
In the spirit of the above a couple of big potential issues that I can see that could blind-side us next time around are...
What if we can't develop a reliable test for the next pandemic, at least for quite a few months into the pandemic? We were actually quite lucky to get acceptably quick and reliable tests so early, even if in limited supply at first. What if in the early stages, maybe for many months, we simply don't have reliable tests available next time around? That would radically change the play book significantly.
What if the primary transmission vector next time was extremely potent surface transmission as opposed to, or maybe as well as, aerosols? That would present all sorts of additional challenges for basic food distribution either delivered or bought in-person from supermarkets (would the latter even be possible in such circumstances?)
Those are both very troubling scenarios that should at least be considered. I'm sure there are many other twists, some far less dramatic than the above, that could and should be considered in any future pandemic planning.
- Julian