Arborbridge wrote:I'm no educted at all about this matter, but that chart seems to indicate we might need rejabbing once or twice a year. Not a great outlook for the NHS or the world economy.
Arb.
A number of scientists now have given up on the idea that we could achieve herd immunity because of the high rate of double vaccinated people still catching covid - some reports suggest that vaccinated people can carry just a high a viral load from catching covid as an unvaccinated person.
The consensus is moving towards acceptance that covid is here to stay and is going to be endemic.
In other words, the efficacy against symptomatic disease doesn't necessarily mean boosters are needed.
What matters is whether that reduction in anti-bodies / apparent efficacy translates into an increase in hospitalisation or death.
No-one expects there to be no hospitalisations or deaths, it's a matter of whether they stay at an 'acceptable' level or not. That will be the key decider whether re-jabs might, or might not, be needed.
It's quite possible, if the jabbed rate of infection stays high enough, that further 'boosts' might actually just come from catching covid itself.
Earlier research suggested that catching covid actually gives a broader immune response vs the vaccine, so in a way it might actually be preferable to catch covid after being vaccinated.
In fact, some research I read suggested that covid re-infection is actually still quite uncommon. I did see one unbelievably small number reported for the number of confirmed re-infections, though so small that I'd want to better understand how the number was arrived at before reading too much into it.
Whereas catching covid - albeit either asymptomatically or with much reduced symptoms - still seems quite common for vaccinated people.
So it could even end up that we might eventually achieve herd immunity, but from a combination of first getting the vaccine, and then catching the real thing. Though, if you've had the vaccine, maybe catching the real thing doesn't prove as beneficial as the research that I saw suggested, as that research was several months ago before may / any people had been vaccinated; perhaps the immune response from catching real covid isn't as good if it's already been primed with the vaccine and so doesn't need to do as much work.
But to a large extent we'll just have to wait and see. Even the government and scientists admit they're still gathering the data so it could still play out a number of ways.
The working presumption in the UK is currently that it's going to be endemic, but the vaccine will protect from the worst, and the reports on the reduction in symptomatic efficacy don't automatically mean protection from hospitalisation and / or death won't still remain high.
