'No-look November'.....

[Itsallaguess]

The figures here are from the equities and funds. The figures are not 100% accurate as I've added money to the portfolio over the previous year, but because it's not unitised I've reduced the monthly figure each time by the amount invested cumulatively. It's also complicated by a pension transfer from an old personal pension to a SIPP which cost a bit in terms of fees and is reflected in the August figures. It's close enough as far as I'm concerned to give me some insight as to the possible swings that can occur.

Nov 16 - Dec 16 4.06%
Dec 16 - Jan 17 2.33%
Jan 17 - Feb 17 5.09%
Feb 17 - Mar 17 3.9%
Mar 17 - Apr 17 0.86%
Apr 17 - May 17 3.15%
May 17 - Jun 17 -3.91%
Jun 17 - Jul 17 3.13%
Jul 17 - Aug 17 -4.05%
Aug 17 - Sep 17 2.87%
Sep 17 - Oct 17 -0.76%

Thanks for that Capt. Flack, and right on time too, so we're able to compare tomorrow's difference from the end of October when we last looked at our portfolio tools. Who'd have thought we could keep it up!

It's been a great personal test for me too, and I've got to say that I have wondered on more than one occasion if I'd have been able to keep at it for the whole month if I didn't have a few great people here with me that were also giving it a go. Having this thread going on throughout the test has been a great source of interest and camaraderie, so thanks to everyone who's also been along for the ride, I'm very grateful for your own interest in this little test.

I'll try to give a month-to-month update of capital differences some time tomorrow afternoon, and I'd be very interested to hear from anyone else who's able to work out a similar figure for their own portfolio too.

I think I'll try to go Friday-to-Friday from now on, at least for a while, and just see how that goes, but no matter how I end up doing from now on, I do propose to run 'No-Look-November' at the same time next year, and will advertise the fact in good time so we can all get organised and mentally prepared for it again in just 11 months time!

Well done to everyone who's managed to go for the full month without taking a peek. We all know how hard it's been, otherwise we wouldn't have wanted to test ourselves, so great work all round!!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[kiloran]

I'm expecting the lights to dim as everyone fires up their portfolios a minute after midnight

--kiloran

[OZYU]

I am not sure what you are asking, but these are the monthly returns in accumulation units in my HY ISA, since end 2014.


2.30%
3.27%
-0.33%
1.77%
1.81%
-2.42%
1.32%
-2.20%
-2.92%
3.60%
0.72%
0.13%
-4.24%
0.15%
4.41%
0.33%
1.09%
-1.99%
6.21%
4.01%
1.67%
1.11%
-0.97%
4.11%
0.66%
2.47%
1.11%
0.47%
3.24%
-0.52%
1.15%
1.58%
-0.17%
1.43%
-0.29%

Average 0.97%, or about 11.67% p.a.

Since the beginning of PEPs, so a few decades, the average monthly unitised return is 0.982%.

No work required, my spreadsheet throws it out automatically (thanks to tables and pivots, and the odd macro, which assembles the accurate data as and when anything occurs which needs recording in the portfolio as it happens, such as mostly divis, the odd buy/sell, corporate actions, so I certainly would not be part of your no look trial) in monthly buckets. It only requires a few minutes a few times a week at most, always been a bad sleeper, so no bother. But I did spend a while designing the system properly years back, and desiging systems was my job(AI and Robotics mainly).

Ozyu

[Itsallaguess]

Initial results from end of October to December 1st 2017 :

FTSE100 October 30th 2017                    7487.81
FTSE100 December 1st 2017                    7326.67
FTSE100 change over period                   -2.15%

Overall portfolio capital value change :     -1.95%
Single largest faller :                      -7.23%
Single largest gain :                        10.57%

Initial observations -

Even though we're trying to avoid directly viewing our portfolio values for this test, when we've got an inherent interest in the investment world and continue to use these boards during a test-period like this, it's difficult to entirely avoid getting a feel for the 'market mood-music' during the same period, and I know there was some indifferent news for a few of my direct holdings during this period, so with that in mind I was inevitably expecting a fall in the capital value of my holdings.

That said, the -1.95% fall in my portfolio capital value is actually less than I expected given that mood-music awareness, and that sort of fluctuation is definitely within the sort of ranges we've reported on in this thread previously for other month-to-month holding periods, so on this metric alone I am quite pleased to see that it's largely been 'business as usual' for the portfolio capital value during 'No-Look-November'.

Also, looking at the FTSE100 market drop over the same period, where it has dropped -2.15%, this puts the -1.95% drop in my portfolio value into a much better context overall.

I'll have some more to say on these results later this weekend no doubt, but that's after an initial look first thing this morning.

I'll be most interested to see any similar metrics from anyone else who's been giving this process a go.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[OLTB]

Well, I only have figures for my HYP as I don't update my IT or passive portfolios for weeks at a time.

So, HYP-wise the capital has decreased by 2.64%. I didn't update my HYP income distributions throughout the month until today and guess what...all were paid on time as expected without me having to look!

I shall keep refraining from looking daily as it does me no good and serves no benefit.

I can't say that I went the whole month without looking at the odd share price as I did

Still, lesson learned and I'll get on with more important things instead - a good topic to start Itsallaguess .

Cheers, OLTB.

[CaptainFlack]

Results

Overall Portfolio capital value change:     -0.82%
Single largest faller:                      -10.772%
Single largest gain:                         12.298%

Comment

The overall capital value is made up of both individual share picks across ISAs and my SIPP, and the funds I've held for many years. The overall portfolio value isn't 100% accurate but close enough to prove a point.

The faller and gain stats are only taken from shares.

Very surprised at the overall change in the portfolio value. I had talked myself into a -3% to -4% decrease. Having completed the month by month exercise yesterday, I can honestly say I'm quite happy with the result.

I actually had four shares that fell by over 10%. My bacon was saved by the fact that two of them were of a very small percentage of the overall portfolio and that the largest gain was one of my growth shares which also is now the largest percentage of the portfolio.

The managed / passive funds I hold dropped overall by -0.296%.

The individual shares I hold dropped by -0.774%.

Lessons learned

Obvious one really, there is little point me watching my portfolio regularly. Like most people, I hate to see individual shares drop in value, which is irrational because many of my shares are HYP shares and I want the lower values so I buy a bigger income each time.

Watching it daily is more stressful than it is just waiting until the end of the month and then updating the overall value.

The first two weeks were quite difficult at the time because the noise in the media led me to believe armaggedon had occured with three of my shares. The reality was that one of them was a 10% faller and one of them actually increased even though the news I heard made me think otherwise. The biggest gainer is a small company with no mainstream media interest and was a big, pleasant surprise this morning.

This reporting exercise would have been easier if I had properly unitised everything years ago. I might look at the Christmas break to work on this.

Overall, I'm very pleased I took part in this and will from now on check once a week on a Friday at close of play if I know there has been some change to the portfolio. I.e. a regular investment has gone in, or a dividend has been paid et cetera. I shall use HYPTUSS to grab the dividend dates. This makes the assumption I haven't forgotten to check the portfolio and gone down the pub having knocked off early. By the end of the month I found I wasn't even thinking of my portfolio anymore day to day.

Interestingly, HYPTUSS seems to be broken for me today and I now need to go off and check if there has been any changes to it.

Great idea Itsallaguess.

Cheers.

Capt. Flack

[Raptor]

My portfolio value dropped 1%. Thought it would be a lot more. Just spent 4 hours updating spreadsheets for the new HYPTUSS and some other mods I have wanted to do for a while and using some of the money from divi's to buy a "new" IT for North American Income.

Biggest loser CNA (Centrica). Biggest riser MARS (Marstons, which surprised me after the drop this week.

ADM (Admiral) was exactly the same value.

Biggest surprise was the IT's value dropping. Managed portfolios????


Will steer clear of portfolio a lot more often going forward. Plan to only open spreadsheets to add dividends, after purchases or sales. Once a month run the updated figures and see how it goes month to month.

Been a good experience thanks itsallaguess.

Raptor.

[kiloran]

Plan to only open spreadsheets to add dividends, after purchases or sales. Once a month run the updated figures and see how it goes month to month.

Raptor.

That's blown my plans for Pay Per View for HYPTUSS out of the water

--kiloran

[CaptainFlack]

I know it's not November, but I survived another week, actually looking at my portfolio this morning. Only minor urges to view the portfolio during the course of the week, easily ignored.

Stunning performance over the past week though; there's no way it would be that good if I looked at it every few hours! I'm good at this investing lark!

Cheers.

Capt. Flack

[Itsallaguess]

I know it's not November, but I survived another week, actually looking at my portfolio this morning. Only minor urges to view the portfolio during the course of the week, easily ignored.

Thanks for the update Captain Flack, as I'm in a very similar position actually, and although I've allowed myself to spot-check a few individual shares that have had some related news released in the past week, I've yet to actually view an overall portfolio picture since I did so at the beginning of December.

I see this week, and the above revelation, to actually be of much higher significance for me than the 'No-Look November' challenge itself, as it's allowed me to see and demonstrate a change in personal behavior outside of that period.

I think an unusually hectic Friday last week will be the main reason for this, however, so I do still plan to take a good look on most Fridays from now on, but I think it's been great to see that the 'urge' to maintain a constant visibility of the portfolio situation has certainly diminished massively since carrying out the November exercise.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

Just a quick update to say that my once-per-week checking has been maintained since taking a complete break in November.

Where I'd usually find myself taking a quick peek during working hours (usually dinner-time, mind...) and also without fail having a good look at night once the markets had closed, I'm finding it really quite easy to maintain my single Friday-afternoon/tea-time round-up, and have managed to put the portfolio out of my mind, for the most part, during the other six days of the week.

Certainly a worthwhile exercise for me.....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[CaptainFlack]

Just a quick update to say that my once-per-week checking has been maintained since taking a complete break in November.

Where I'd usually find myself taking a quick peek during working hours (usually dinner-time, mind...) and also without fail having a good look at night once the markets had closed, I'm finding it really quite easy to maintain my single Friday-afternoon/tea-time round-up, and have managed to put the portfolio out of my mind, for the most part, during the other six days of the week.

Certainly a worthwhile exercise for me.....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Me too. I actually only got round to checking it this afternoon. I knew I'd had my regular monthly drip feed go in during the week and was keen to update everything.

The next proper test for me will be when I buy a significant slug of shares. Hopefully, knowing that ignoring the daily noise leads to a more stress free month will mean I'll be able to avoid micro checking in the aftermath of buying.

Cheers.

Capt. Flack

[Itsallaguess]

Quick update - still managing to maintain a level of indifference to portfolio-monitoring that has really come as quite a surprise. I wish I'd tried this exercise years ago!

Keeping an eye on things on a Friday now by and large, although I've done a little portfolio-planning this morning for the new tax-year come April. I'm wanting to do some bed-and-ISA'ing along with some capital movements, so this is the usual time of year for me to carry out this little exercise.

Hope everyone else has managed to also maintain their reduced level of portfolio monitoring.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[CaptainFlack]

Quick update - still managing to maintain a level of indifference to portfolio-monitoring that has really come as quite a surprise. I wish I'd tried this exercise years ago!

Keeping an eye on things on a Friday now by and large, although I've done a little portfolio-planning this morning for the new tax-year come April. I'm wanting to do some bed-and-ISA'ing along with some capital movements, so this is the usual time of year for me to carry out this little exercise.

Hope everyone else has managed to also maintain their reduced level of portfolio monitoring.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I've looked more frequently this past week than I wanted to. I've had three divis paid out this week, one of my shares has increased significantly and I've one share that will likely benefit from the collapse of Carillion which I couldn't resist checking (it hasn't so far).

The increased share has made me question whether I need to trim it to protect the increase. I just don't know what to do with the proceeds. Plus I'm trying to determine if I would actually be selling at the start of a good run.

On top of that I've spent the year currently trying to decide whether to start investing in ETFs for some monies, and that research has led me to log on to accounts to see what I can buy.

In general, I feel I don't need to look, but I've ended up looking more that I should, but I do think those reasons are fairly sound.

Cheers.

Capt. Flack

[Itsallaguess]

Well I suppose it's not fair to take any credit for being good and keeping away from my portfolio, if I'm not going to also be upfront when this isn't the case....

The past couple of weeks has been a little more testing, and to be fair I have had a bit of a cash buffer waiting for some deployment, so I've been keeping a closer eye on things for the past week or so, and have dipped my toe into the market today with a few income-related IT purchases.

I'm also going to be carrying out some further sales and re-purchases nearer the new tax year, and also move some further funds into an ISA account come April 6th, so I'm getting the feelers out for how those processes may be carried out in the most efficient manner.

I've been very lucky with my unsheltered shares-account, and will hopefully be able to dip under the £2000 dividend limit for the next tax year, but this does need a little planning, which is difficult to do with a blindfold on, especially during the current market volatility.

Hopefully things will settle down once I've finalised my plan, and I also expect the need for portfolio-visibility to lessen now that I've deployed some capital, and even with the above actions being carried out, I'm still carrying out a much lower level of 'portfolio watching' than I've been known to do in the past.

Best of luck to anyone else still trying to take a more relaxed approach. It's certainly a bit more difficult to do that right now than it has been!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[CaptainFlack]

Well I suppose it's not fair to take any credit for being good and keeping away from my portfolio, if I'm not going to also be upfront when this isn't the case....

The past couple of weeks has been a little more testing, and to be fair I have had a bit of a cash buffer waiting for some deployment, so I've been keeping a closer eye on things for the past week or so, and have dipped my toe into the market today with a few income-related IT purchases.
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Best of luck to anyone else still trying to take a more relaxed approach. It's certainly a bit more difficult to do that right now than it has been!

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Yes, it has proved impossible to keep away during 'F'cough February' and I too have watched with some trepidation as prices dipped, although the decreases only take me back a few months, so it's hardly the end of the world. I did take the opportunity for top up purchases last week and I am beginning to form a plan to introduce a new wad of cash for a new share in the next three weeks which obviously requires some research.

The question for me to consider is whether having followed a 'no-look' approach for February would I have been significantly disheartened by a portfolio drop of around 10% had that been the outcome at the end of the month? When it was a couple of percent down in November, that was manageable mentally.

Would it have been desirable to intervene like I have done with the three top-ups? If the portfolio gets back to where it was, I would have missed out on the potential dip. If the portfolio continues to drop, then my intervention would have been adverse. All unknowns at this stage. Three dividend purchases are reinvested this week as well just to add to the mix.

Cheers.

Capt. Flack

[Itsallaguess]

I did take the opportunity for top up purchases last week and I am beginning to form a plan to introduce a new wad of cash for a new share in the next three weeks which obviously requires some research.

The question for me to consider is whether having followed a 'no-look' approach for February would I have been significantly disheartened by a portfolio drop of around 10% had that been the outcome at the end of the month? When it was a couple of percent down in November, that was manageable mentally.

Would it have been desirable to intervene like I have done with the three top-ups? If the portfolio gets back to where it was, I would have missed out on the potential dip. If the portfolio continues to drop, then my intervention would have been adverse. All unknowns at this stage.

I think that whilst it's a great aim to reduce the amount of time spent poring over our spreadsheets, there also comes a time where it's the right thing to do, and during periods of market volatility that align with opportunities to deploy some cash that's waited for that opportunity surely defines itself as one of those times....(that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it...:O)

Hopefully things will settle down and I can return to my more mundane once-weekly reviews, but I don't have any real issues with me taking a look where it's warranted, and I think it was in this case given that I carried out some top-ups with some available funds.

It sounds like you've been in a similar situation, and I think it's only right that a wish to monitor less doesn't override a sensible approach not to where it's warranted...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess