Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

Politicians looking at this have to decide if the current accident rate could be reduced enough by using e.g. a Tesla system to make it worth legalising. If e.g. the simulations say you can reduce the accident figures by 90%, that is a lot of money, lives and injuries saved and it would be hard to refuse it. However, if the simulations say it is only 5% then it would be easy to refuse it.

I guess at some point someone somewhere decides to legalise a Tesla like system for a probation period of maybe 12 months and then every government on the planet compares the previous accident rate to the probation period and makes a decision not on simulations that may be badly off, but on the real data from the probation period.

Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?

[BobbyD]

Tesla Autopilot crisis deepens with loss of third Autopilot boss in 18 months

It is no secret that Tesla's Autopilot project is struggling. Last summer, we covered a report that Tesla was bleeding talent from its Autopilot division. Tesla Autopilot head Sterling Anderson quit Tesla at the end of 2016. His replacement was Chris Lattner, who had previously created the Swift programming language at Apple. But Lattner only lasted six months before departing last June.
Now Lattner's replacement, Jim Keller, is leaving Tesla as well.

- https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/te ... 18-months/

Tesla's advantage lies in electric vehicles, they aren't going to make the break through in autonomous and when the break through is made they'll be able to get it delivered to their factory just like everybody else. If the point of Tesla was to make electric cars a thing it seems strange that they keep getting hung up on things they aren't very good at like self drive and redesigning the manufacture process at the expense of the availability of the technology they are supposed to be championing.

[BobbyD]

The way I see it the consumer wins either way. Either Tesla succeed and good quality lower priced EVs are available from Tesla, or Tesla fails but in the meantime causes all the legacy automakers to accelerate their EV programmes.

I think Dieselgate might have somewhat undermined Tesla's role in the electrification of the car fleet, but Tesla were certainly important in getting the ball rolling.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?

Because that is what the data suggests.

The questions are:

Is the data reliable

Is the positive impact going to be big enough to persuade politicians to legalise it.

As I noted before it is a grim business of deciding based on probabilities which system or systems will save the most lives. None of them are likely ever going to be 100% safe.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Why do you think that a cruise control on steroids is going to have any significant positive impact on accident rates?

Because that is what the data suggests.

The questions are:

Is the data reliable

Is the positive impact going to be big enough to persuade politicians to legalise it.

As I noted before it is a grim business of deciding based on probabilities which system or systems will save the most lives. None of them are likely ever going to be 100% safe.

Regards,

The one thing Tesla's autopilot isn't is an autopilot.

Full autonomous, yes, I would expect ultimately to lead to a decent decrease in crashes, injuries, fatalities and congestion but that is level 4/5, Tesla are level 2.

Some manufacturer's currently have drivers in the seat because it is a legal requirement, Tesla is supposed to have drivers in the seat because otherwise the car will drive in to a white van or a concrete separator.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
The one thing Tesla's autopilot isn't is an autopilot.

Full autonomous, yes, I would expect ultimately to lead to a decent decrease in crashes, injuries, fatalities and congestion but that is level 4/5, Tesla are level 2.

Some manufacturer's currently have drivers in the seat because it is a legal requirement, Tesla is supposed to have drivers in the seat because otherwise the car will drive in to a white van or a concrete separator.

If you are right in your statements rather than them being opinions, why is a human better than several cameras with AI and much faster reactions?

Is there some fundamental limit to what AI with cameras can do that is exceeded by a human?

If so what do the more advanced systems offer that is better than a human?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Snorvey

The Bezos Blue Origin successfully launches and lands.

https://news.sky.com/video/blue-origin- ... t-11353657

Is Elon about to be 'Amazoned' along with the rest of the planet?

Kind of think that NASA, European Space Agency ... have all been billionaired by Musk, Besos, Branson...

The use of profits to do good things reminds me of the philanthropic actions of Victorian business titans. Folk like Carnegie who built libraries, Leverhulme et al who built model villages, Ford who raised wages & helped employees with housing etc.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Are you still bullish on Musk? I have recently been reading much on the issue with ramping up production for the Tesla 3 model that suggests he is in trouble and will run out of money very soon.

Apparently his latest youtube update was a little bizarre in places with Musk cutting off significant question that he found "dry and boring".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTiBqQ_I-fA

He is also about to come up against restraints to the amount of money he can borrow against Tesla stock.

Is the dream finally coming to an end?

John

[JamesMuenchen]

Here is a full version of the call
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vd01mgF7Qm4

[odysseus2000]

Having listened to the Tesla Q&A and looked at the accounts, it all looks very positive to me.

Musk cut up an 'accountant' line of questioning which was so detailed as to be of very little interest to anyone. The conference call was a long one and the team went over backwards to answer what they considered sensible questions.

However, what he had done struck him later and he emphasised how a later question was super interesting.

The media headlines will be ignored by serious investors, the question is are the accounts anything like correct and can one trust what Musk is saying.

Short interest is now ramping after a big sell off from 350-380 down to the current levels of 300-ish.

Things are set up for a short squeeze if the bears can't use the current negative feeling to crush the share.

Imho as I currently see things, Tesla stock is very cheap, but I am not always right and anyone thinking of buying Tesla equity should do their own research. This is not a widows and orphans stock and an investor has to know what they are doing if they enter long or short in Tesla. Personally I always like to go to first hand research, i.e. not to believe what commentators or analysts say. The recent Apple results that were so different to analysts estimates is a recent case in point about the poor quality of highly paid research.

Musk also stated that he could not care less about day traders: If volatility frightens you, do not buy Tesla stock. Tesla focus is long term gain.

The conference call was interesting too for several things including his belief that Tesla self drive may need more processing power per car but is otherwise constrained by what regulators demand. He described media focus on the odd self drive death and not the many human drive death as ridiculous and doing a dis-service to the public. The statistics show, according to Musk, that auto pilot is much better than human drive.

He also commented on moats, arguing that in the 21st century it is all about innovation, citing that it was obvious that the innovative Amazon would crush non-innovative Walmart.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Imho as I currently see things, Tesla stock is very cheap

It's even cheaper now...

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD

odysseus2000 wrote:
Imho as I currently see things, Tesla stock is very cheap


It's even cheaper now...

Yes, all the good earnings have been sold.

Currently there is some strength in Apple and Nvda and the tech mutual fund xlk is also up.

Not sure if this is the start of a turn or traders baiting longs in.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Cramer' comments on the Tesla earnings call:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/03/t ... ramer.html

It is interesting not only for what Cramer says but for what his co-anchors say, especially when they don't know what the big financial event of this weekend is.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

According to todays FT, current proposals will ban hybrids like the Prius from 2040.

If this is true, every motor manufacturer will have to make electric cars.

Regards,

[andyalan10]

It does seem like our politicians and commentators are determined to mislead people as much as possible.

What has been leaked is that the government may require new plug-in hybrids post 2040 to have a minimum range on electricity of 50 miles. At the moment plug in hybrids typically have a claimed range of around 20-30 miles.

In the BBC reporting they refer to "so called plug in hybrids", as though such things don't exist, and mention that the regulations would affect 98% of cars on the road today. Well no, if they apply to new cars then they will apply to 0% of today's cars, but there's not a lot of difference between 0% and 98%.

The current state of play is that in the UK we have rising carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic, and I expect we will soon see a tailing off in the improvements in air quality as people hold onto their old diesel cars longer, being scared to replace them with newer and cleaner models. It's the inevitable and predictable consequence of the reckless pontificating and reporting we have at the moment.

Andy

[odysseus2000]

andyalan10
The current state of play is that in the UK we have rising carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic, and I expect we will soon see a tailing off in the improvements in air quality as people hold onto their old diesel cars longer, being scared to replace them with newer and cleaner models. It's the inevitable and predictable consequence of the reckless pontificating and reporting we have at the moment.

Yes, that is a good & plausible argument, but I believe it is wrong.

Why?

Motor makers are looking at Tesla pre-orders noting they have no marketting or show room overheads & are taking sales from them. Plus they always fear what politicians will do. So I predict full electric car sales will take off because the punters don't buy anything else. Why would anyone buy a car that is a potential target as a political football & much worse is that electric cars are a lot faster, quieter & one no longer has to mess with petrol stations.

When ever I get a chance to talk electric I am amazed at the idea s people have. At the dentists yesterday one guy was sure electric cars didn't have enough torque & a lorry driver didn't know that the Tesla semi has over 1000 pre-orders & doesn't need the endless gear changes of a diesel lorry.

Once the performance of electric filters through to Joe/Jolene punter I doubt he/she will settle for anything else.

As I see this we are in an evolutionary moment where everything is changing. If .I am right, Tesla is very cheap.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting tweet by Musk, backed up by details in the bloomberg article:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/992556974263947264

May all be bravado, but if Musk has something new to announce or has a big investment from e.g. his Chinese connections, the potential up move with so few shares left to short is large.

Regards,

[redsturgeon]

Much as I love Elon Musk and am a great fan of electric vehicles, I can't help but think this is a house of cards just waiting to collapse.

I love him for his innovation and trying something different but I just can't see him ever ramping up production to a significant level to make money on his cars.

I can see VW or BMW being in a much better shape to take things forward.

John

[odysseus2000]

redsturgeon

Much as I love Elon Musk and am a great fan of electric vehicles, I can't help but think this is a house of cards just waiting to collapse.

I love him for his innovation and trying something different but I just can't see him ever ramping up production to a significant level to make money on his cars.

I can see VW or BMW being in a much better shape to take things forward.

John

Yes, this is the dilemma for shorts who can not comprehend how institutions they have grown up with can not topple the new boy, by having more capital, established customers, reputations & friendly bankers.

I am now reasonably confident of two things:

First, shorts will not give up, they now have too much on social media & too strong a belief in the old ways to quit. They are set up for either a glorious "I told you so!" or serious losses. That is not a risk reward I ever want.

Second, they have to kill Tesla asap, by what ever methods they can manage. One aspect of the last Tesla call that didn't get much attention was Musk saying that he will not issue more equity, something a lot of shorts would like to allow them to increase short positions. Assuming the US exchanges enforce the naked shorting bans, there is not much stock left to borrow. if Tesla equity rises shorts will not be able to raise their entry position to get their cost base towards the share price & will run into risk management limits, smaller investors will get calls from margin clerks. None of this may happpen, but the way Musk is hinting he is either a good poker player or he has a ace or several aces up his sleeves.

You pays your money & takes your choice.

Either this is a Kodak moment and the established motor makers suddenly find their bonds down graded & their ability to raise capital reduced substantially, or Tesla gets creamed.

Looking at the last set of accounts, the existing reservations (years worth of production) & now the 1000+ reservations for the semi truck, there are two divergent streams. One sure Tesla fails, the other desperate to buy Tesla cars.

Interesting

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

The spat between Buffett & Musk, reminds me of Cornelius Vanderbilt, a man who having been crossed instead of reverting to the law, built a competing business to his enemy & destroyed him. He argued that the law was too slow.

Now we have Musk saying he will go into the candy business to compete with Buffett who owns a candy business.

No guarantee this will happen or if it does that it will be successful, but its kind of interesting that Vanderbilt became the wealthiest man in the US, something that will happen to Musk if Tesla succeeds.

Regards,