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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#143798

Postby BobbyD » June 4th, 2018, 10:45 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD

Again, what made Apple successful? The ability to get a product to market and exchange it for bundles of banknotes... What is it Tesla are currently incapable of doing? Getting a product to market and...


Tesla managed to get some serious bundles of bank notes by offering registrations at $1000 a go a few years ago. Nice to have all those banknotes and not have product ready, kind of takes business cash flow to a new level.

Regards,


That sounds rather more like a pyramid scheme than a business. All is good right up until people start asking for them back... 23% of model 3 deposits refunded?

Tesla has an incredible amount of Model 3 reservations, but the delays and unavailability of the less expensive version of the vehicle have resulted in some cancellations.

A report is now attempting to quantify the number of cancellation and claims that as many as 23% of Model 3 reservations were refunded by Tesla, but people are still reserving the Model 3 at a high pace.


The report comes via Second Measure, which analyzes billions of anonymized purchases from credit and debit cards.

The biggest takeaway from their report is that about “23 percent of deposits have been refunded”:


- https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-mo ... ed-report/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#143825

Postby odysseus2000 » June 5th, 2018, 3:43 am

The Xprize:

https://www.forbes.com/consent/?toURL=h ... eracy/amp/

May need to confirm you will accept things from Forbes to view the video.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#143826

Postby odysseus2000 » June 5th, 2018, 3:45 am

Sorry meant read the story not view the video.

Of course no idea if this will help folk & it is one of several iniatives including some by the Gates foundation, but maybe it helps some.

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#144024

Postby odysseus2000 » June 6th, 2018, 12:16 am

Tesla annual meeting of Stock holders:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/shareholder ... edirect=no

The q&a part is super interesting.

Expectations for battery costs of less than $100 per kWh in the near term, along with strong belief they can do 5k cars per week shortly and go cash flow positive.

The next gigafactory will be in Shanghai, announcement shortly, current giga factory, biggest building on earth, takes 2 hours just to walk round with out stopping.

On & on it goes with a ton of useful stuff, with kinda of amusing put down of lidar etc etc.

If you want to laugh at a lot of the media commentary then this meeting is worth watching.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#144030

Postby BobbyD » June 6th, 2018, 12:56 am

odysseus2000 wrote:On & on it goes with a ton of useful stuff, with kinda of amusing put down of lidar etc etc.


There is a direct correlation between the number of Lidars in an autonomous vehicle and the number of people who have died in incidents involving them. It must have been a hilarious joke.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#144123

Postby odysseus2000 » June 6th, 2018, 1:31 pm

BobbyD
There is a direct correlation between the number of Lidars in an autonomous vehicle and the number of people who have died in incidents involving them. It must have been a hilarious joke.


Musk's comment on Lidar was that it uses 400 -700 nm photons, visible light, that are not able to penetrate many atmospheric conditions, I.e. they are no better than optical cameras.

In reality, as I understand it, lidar systems can operate at a wide range of wavelengths, but those which are the least costly & which are used as I understand it in self drive, operate at around 600 to 1000 nm, which is in the range of human retinal sensitivity & consequently the allowed output power is very low, too much & you would blind people.

More power is allowed at 1550 nm, but the systems are more expensive.

Lots of research on making other wavelength useable at low cost, but so far none are commercial as far as I know.

So the point Musk was making was that practical Lidar as currently implemented for car autominous driving does not offer advantages over optical.

Maybe Musk is wrong & if someone knows so then please correct me.

But no matter what system you have, if it is switched off as seems to be the case for the fatal Googl bicycle collision it won't help.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#144236

Postby BobbyD » June 6th, 2018, 10:17 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Musk's comment on Lidar was that it uses 400 -700 nm photons, visible light, that are not able to penetrate many atmospheric conditions, I.e. they are no better than optical cameras.


You realise that the conclusion drawn in that statement is not an inevitable outcome of the premise? That operating in the same medium means neither that they are doing the same job, nor that they are pulling the same information, nor the same amount of information?

“You need a combination of cameras, radar, and lidar in order to create a self-driving system,” explains Jada Tapley, VP of Advanced Engineering at Aptiv. She would know. Aptiv built the autonomous Lyft cars that ferried attendees around Las Vegas for CES 2018. In the worst gridlock the city sees all year. And monsoon-like conditions. With zero accidents.

Those cars had nine lidar, ten radar, and four cameras. A combination of all three allow it to drive itself, but lidar performs the crucial function engineers call localization. “It’s important for the vehicle to be able to identify with a very high degree of accuracy where it is on the map,” Tapley explains. “We use our lidar to do that.”

While GPS can narrow down your location to a circle about 16 feet in diameter, lidar can do it within a circle four inches in diameter. That’s better than a lot of drivers can manage...

While cameras can identify objects, and radar can tell how far away they are, lidar can achieve both with a degree of precision neither can touch. “Imagine that there’s an 18-wheeler tire tread in the middle of the road,” Tapley says. “Radar will not detect that. Lidar will.”


- https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/soli ... ving-cars/


...also nobody is suggesting running an autonomous vehicle using only LIDAR.

odysseus2000 wrote:More power is allowed at 1550 nm, but the systems are more expensive.


Somebody should build a whacking great factory to produce them for cheap...

An electronics buff in my family is famous for declaring that we'll never be able to build a pocket calculator cheaply enough for it to become a mass consumer item.

In 1999, Jaguar introduced the first radar-based cruise control in the XK, a coupe that sold for about $100,000 in today’s dollars. At the time, the sensors were so expensive that as Tapley tells it, “People joked around that you got a free Jag with every radar purchase.”

Today, you can get the same feature in a $18,000 Corolla. “We’re kind of on that same learning curve with lidar,” she says. “Until solid state becomes mature and enters mass production, these vehicles are going to be pretty cost prohibitive for an average consumer to own.”


- https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/soli ... ving-cars/

The technology is evolving fast, and there are numerous companies competing in LIDAR.

https://www.vehicle-trend.com/Knowledge ... -1146.html

odysseus2000 wrote:But no matter what system you have, if it is switched off as seems to be the case for the fatal Googl bicycle collision it won't help.


Do you mean Uber?

Uber use APTIV and Mobileye hardware, but run their own code and turn the built in safety features off. They also try running on a single LIDAR, rather than the 4+ used in cars which haven't been involved in fatal incidents.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#144240

Postby odysseus2000 » June 6th, 2018, 11:20 pm

Thank you BobbyD for that useful post.

Yes, sorry, I did mean Uber re the fatal bicycle impact.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#144404

Postby BobbyD » June 8th, 2018, 3:14 am

Glad my last post was useful.

Preliminary report on the crash involving a Tesla which hit the crash attenuator resulting in the death of the Tesla driver:

A preliminary review of the recorded performance data showed the following:

The Autopilot system was engaged on four separate occasions during the 32-minute trip, including a continuous operation for the last 18 minutes 55 seconds prior to the crash.
During the 18-minute 55-second segment, the vehicle provided two visual alerts and one auditory alert for the driver to place his hands on the steering wheel. These alerts were made more than 15 minutes prior to the crash.
During the 60 seconds prior to the crash, the driver’s hands were detected on the steering wheel on three separate occasions, for a total of 34 seconds; for the last 6 seconds prior to the crash, the vehicle did not detect the driver’s hands on the steering wheel.
At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph.
At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle.
At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle.
At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increased from 62 to 70.8 mph, with no precrash braking or evasive steering movement detected.


https://ntsb.gov/investigations/Acciden ... inary.aspx

It appears that the autopilot accelerated in to the crash barrier.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145168

Postby BobbyD » June 12th, 2018, 12:59 pm

The marketing of driving assistance features such as Autopilot, ProPilot and others as “autonomous” is setting unrealistic expectations and causing dangerous driving, according to insurers and vehicle safety researchers.

In a report, Thatcham Research and the Association of British Insurers (ABI) say that drivers are being lulled into a false sense of security by the marketing of new driver assistance features making their way into cars and costing upwards of £20,000.

Features such as Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot and Nissan’s ProPilot, as well as terms such as “full self-driving capability” and being “capable of driving autonomously” are giving the false impression of a level of autonomy not yet available.


- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... san-report

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145185

Postby odysseus2000 » June 12th, 2018, 1:52 pm

Yes, but for comparison sake, the article should also note how many folk have been killed & injured by human only controlled cars over the same period.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145193

Postby tjh290633 » June 12th, 2018, 2:08 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but for comparison sake, the article should also note how many folk have been killed & injured by human only controlled cars over the same period.

Regards,

Perhaps as a percentage of both modes currently in operation?

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145328

Postby odysseus2000 » June 12th, 2018, 11:10 pm

Tesla cuts workforce, not production staff, by 9%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfgnI0GVQAASPJZ.jpg

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145348

Postby BobbyD » June 13th, 2018, 5:27 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but for comparison sake, the article should also note how many folk have been killed & injured by human only controlled cars over the same period.

Regards,


That's actually missing the point somewhat. Even if the level 2 advanced cruise control systems in the likes of the Tesla were perfectly safe if they were used properly, the way in which they are being marketed is directly contributing to their misuse, and an associated increase in the risk to the life and well being of the drivers and those on the road around them. When something is sold as an autopilot why wouldn't you watch a DVD or hop in to the passenger seat? This isn't about the technology, it's about the irresponsible way in which the technology is advertised to consumers by some car companies, tragedies resulting from which are, as I pointed out some way back in this thread, probably one of the biggest risks to the widespread adoption of genuine level 5 autonomous vehicles.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145350

Postby BobbyD » June 13th, 2018, 5:44 am

Full c&pable text of the email (via Bloomberg): https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/ ... _33qujk/v0

odysseus2000 wrote:Given that Tesla has never made an annual profit in the almost 15 years since we have existed,
profit is obviously not what motivates us. What drives us is our mission to accelerate the
world’s transition to sustainable, clean energy, but we will never achieve that mission unless we
eventually demonstrate that we can be sustainably profitable. That is a valid and fair criticism
of Tesla’s history to date.


- https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/ ... _33qujk/v0

I feel vaguely validated...

They are also ending solar sales through Home Depot 4 months after the roll out began:

Just four months ago, Tesla Inc. began a major expansion of its solar division at Home Depot Inc., rolling out Tesla-branded selling spaces at 800 of the retailer’s locations.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... olar-sales

In addition to this company-wide restructuring, we've decided not to renew our residential
sales agreement with Home Depot in order to focus our efforts on selling solar power in Tesla
stores and online. The majority of Tesla employees working at Home Depot will be offered the
opportunity to move over to Tesla retail locations.


- https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/ ... _33qujk/v0

This bit is a little weird though:

To those remaining, I would like to thank you in advance for
the difficult job that remains ahead. We are a small company in one of the toughest and most
competitive industries on Earth, where just staying alive, let alone growing, is a form of victory
(Tesla and Ford remain the only American car companies who haven’t gone bankrupt). Yet,
despite our tiny size


- https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/ ... _33qujk/v0

This morning via Bloomberg

Tesla Market Cap: 55.67Bn

Ford Market Cap: 47.68Bn

A tiny company...

Staff cuts, sudden focus on profitability and winding up recent expansions before they've had a chance to go anywhere, is Elon finally beginning to feel the burn?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145391

Postby odysseus2000 » June 13th, 2018, 9:23 am

Ford has over 200,000 employees, Tesla has about 41,000, so in terms of the company, not the valuation, Tesla is much smaller than Ford.

My guess is that Wall Street will like this news.

It is an unhappy situation for the 4000 ish who are leaving, but they are entering one of the best labour markets in US history.

Moving all solar back inside Tesla is typical Musk, presumably sales from Home Depot were not enough to justify the margin impact of having Home Depot overheads.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145398

Postby odysseus2000 » June 13th, 2018, 9:53 am

Shorts in Tesla having a poor June:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-sh ... 44935.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145407

Postby PeterGray » June 13th, 2018, 10:56 am

Given that Tesla has never made an annual profit in the almost 15 years since we have existed,
profit is obviously not what motivates us. What drives us is our mission to ....


Surprising how many company ceos could say that - though I doubt many could keep a straight face doing it!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145416

Postby Meatyfool » June 13th, 2018, 11:23 am

PeterGray wrote:Surprising how many company ceos could say that - though I doubt many could keep a straight face doing it!


It seems increasingly obvious to me that Musk has a real beef with financiers. He just seems to go out of his way to rub them up.

How many other CEOs would love to finance their business by getting customers to make large deposits years in advance of their purchase? Selling useless tat for large amounts of money as another cash line!

The redundancies could simply be face value - Tesla has burned a lot of cash and so needs to reign in before they run out. But just perhaps, maybe they need to start building bridges again with those financiers, and slashing jobs is always their first port of call for belt tightening.

Of course, he could just announce pre-orders for the Model Y but that runs the risk of cannibalising the pre-orders for the Model S - there is a "syndrome" for that - in the early 80s a computer manufacturer trailed their next product and all those who would have bought their current model held back for the next one and bankrupt the company!

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#145425

Postby BobbyD » June 13th, 2018, 12:00 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Ford has over 200,000 employees, Tesla has about 41,000, so in terms of the company, not the valuation, Tesla is much smaller than Ford.


I wasn't aware that in American tiny meant 'smaller than Ford'...

Sounds like somebody trying to reawaken the underdog spirit in the remaining workforce of a multi-billion dollar company...


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