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Turkish trackers
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 2369
- Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:46 pm
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Turkish trackers
With the meltdown currently underway in Turkey, I'd thought I'd look at HSBC's Turkey ETF. Down 14% today.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... sci-turkey
Tempting, but tiny. Only $6M, with a 2%+ spread.
MDW1954
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... sci-turkey
Tempting, but tiny. Only $6M, with a 2%+ spread.
MDW1954
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- Lemon Slice
- Posts: 424
- Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:12 am
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Re: Turkish trackers
I wrote something comparable, without any reference to you, 4 minutes after you! The tectonic plates are clearly shifting, NATO member Turkey is clearly doing things (in partnership with Russia & Iran) which don’t best please NATO. A willing General needs to be found to remove Erdogan. If this can happen and happen quickly and relatively painlessly than Turkey at current prices may well prove to be the bargain of a lifetime!
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 2939
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: June 21st, 2017, 12:02 am
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Re: Turkish trackers
Nearly had a little nibble at ITKY (iShares Turkey ETF). I think it’s too early. More to come here.
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 2369
- Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:46 pm
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Re: Turkish trackers
Thanks for the iShares ticker. I thought that there was one, but wasn't sure.
MDW1954
MDW1954
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 1939
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Re: Turkish trackers
colin wrote:Why not just buy a currency card and load it up with Turkish Lira?
That’s what Erdogan’s asking patriotic Turks to do. Leads me to think it’s not a great trade.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Turkish trackers
That’s what Erdogan’s asking patriotic Turks to do. Leads me to think it’s not a great trade
Why does it do that?
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- Lemon Slice
- Posts: 582
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Re: Turkish trackers
colin wrote:That’s what Erdogan’s asking patriotic Turks to do. Leads me to think it’s not a great trade
Why does it do that?
If enough Lira is bought abroad, it makes the Lira stronger - ie the lira has to be bought and that demand means the sellers can ask for a bit more for it, thus stopping the rout in the currency. Of course, it requires a significant number of people to do just that.
What it means for the buyer, depends on the future geopolitical outcomes. I think Erdogan is doing his best to become a middle east dictator in the style of Assad and co, and Turkey (split between urban secular folk and rural religious folk) could well end up in the same place as Syria eventually, with their neighbours causing trouble (eg Kurds to the North asking for independence).
What is certain is that Erdogan is not going to go quietly, or anytime soon, so this will play out for some time to come.
You'd be better off (IMHO) looking at Russia for recovery, as the world forgets that old bogeyman in favour of new ones. Turkey would be something to look at after that.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Turkish trackers
YeeWo wrote:A willing General needs to be found to remove Erdogan. If this can happen and happen quickly and relatively painlessly than Turkey at current prices may well prove to be the bargain of a lifetime!
- He's jailed all such people. And having ruled so long their is no top-down history nor sense of democracy or real demand for it; they love him it seems.
- Removal? It won't happen, there is a strangle-hold akin to Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
- The country having jailed an estimated 150k+ police/military/academics/politicians after the attempted coup should clarify to all the place they're contemplating.
I wouldn't touch investing there with a bargepole. More frontier market, than emerging market to me.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Turkish trackers
Circa a month ago I perceived “partnership”, it now transpires the non-Assad Syrians are in Idlib and RU/IR & Assad are sharpening the knives to potentially slaughter them all. Turkey seems to be the Only Country prepared to try and stop the slaughter. Mad World. Could TR seriously end up in conflict with RU & IR, if so I guess the TR Economy will be decimated.YeeWo wrote:NATO member Turkey is clearly doing things (in partnership with Russia & Iran) which don’t best please NATO.
Re: Turkish trackers
In terms of safety, could these etfs ever go down to zero in value?
If they will pay a dividend for life might be a reasonable gamble.
If they will pay a dividend for life might be a reasonable gamble.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Turkish trackers
GSD82 wrote:In terms of safety, could these etfs ever go down to zero in value?
If they will pay a dividend for life might be a reasonable gamble.
Sure they can if the stock markets go to zero - which has happened before. Another thing that can happen with more exotic ETFs is if the ETF assets become too small, the provider may choose to wind it up. That would get you out close to NAV, but share prices could be very low at the time.
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- Lemon Quarter
- Posts: 3131
- Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
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Re: Turkish trackers
YeeWo wrote:I wrote something comparable, without any reference to you, 4 minutes after you! The tectonic plates are clearly shifting, NATO member Turkey is clearly doing things (in partnership with Russia & Iran) which don’t best please NATO. A willing General needs to be found to remove Erdogan. If this can happen and happen quickly and relatively painlessly than Turkey at current prices may well prove to be the bargain of a lifetime!
It's interesting how people at arms length from a place can consider it neutrally as an investment opportunity
A 'willing General' attempted to otherthrow the government in July 2016, it failed, and over 100k people got jailed as a result. Would you invest in Iraq or Syria?
The Turkish Lira is going down the pan. 3.5 years ago It was about 3.7 to the pound, last time I checked (last week) it was about 8.5. Measure returns against that, if you can.
Before we moved there into diplo/political circles, not as retirees, I thought I might buy some Turkish shares, some looked like possibilities. 6 months in the idea was laughable; 'thank heavens I reach decisions slowly'.
Turkey is propped up by Iran and Russia; from which perch it rails against Europe; er all whilst angrily demanding a right to join the EU, er whilst threatening to bus tens of thousands of Syrian refugees across Turkey to the EU border [to aid their migration, and threaten Europe]. What is beyond emerging markets and frontier markets? 'Entirely bonkers' markets? I wouldn't go near it.
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