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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#185197

Postby odysseus2000 » December 6th, 2018, 11:35 pm

Tesla according to this and other reports will pay off its next debt with cash and shares:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesl ... rt-2018-12

Market seems happy about this for now and if the share price should stay above the threshold it will be interesting how many of the bond holders opt for equity assuming there is a choice. These articles are in general too simplified to be much use for evaluating things. At one point a few weeks back Ron Baron was saying he expected Tesla to settle the repayment in cash suggesting as I understood him that this would be non-dilutive, but I am not sure.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#185202

Postby odysseus2000 » December 7th, 2018, 12:03 am

Yes, I agree with your comments about China but seeing more Teslas there than in the UK is hardly a significant factor. I don't believe Elon Musk is going to build a billion pound plant in the UK, he will need a much bigger potential market! I guess if you believe that China will just keep growing and growing, eventually it might justify his investment. However it may be that China's growth is slowing and the size of their premium electric car market will not be huge. Surely the Chinese government will not let a US company cream off a huge profit from supplying cars. They will support their home-grown manufacturers. And I don't see Tesla doing an Apple and manufacturing cars in China and exporting them to the USA. The US Government won't let that happen.

And if the US economy turns down a little, it will be interesting to see if the US consumer demand for Teslas stays as buoyant as it has been recently. Their sales figures over the next year will give us an indication.

regards

Howard


Are you sure about this?

I expect China to be the biggest market in the world for electric cars, followed by India and that the rich folk in both countries will want the best that their money can buy them and there are a lot of rich Chinese. Of course that could change under communism, but for now the folk in China who make the money are keeping it.

The US economy has slowed causing GM to initiate plant closures, to the annoyance of President Trump, no indication of any slowing in Tesla sales though.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#185279

Postby dspp » December 7th, 2018, 9:45 am

I second Ody on this point. Broadly speaking the Chinese market, the US market, and the EU market are all similarly sized for EVs over the coming years, i.e. we should not dismiss the Chinese market. That is why I am making the point about the spottability of Teslas where I live in UK, vs where I visit in China.

Each of those three markets is large enough to justify at least one Tesla plant for light vehicles & the corresponding batteries & packs in the 300,000 - 700,000 per year range. And that is exactly what Tesla are planning to do. As someone out there has pointed out "it is much easier & faster to build the second & third assembly lines, compared with inventing the first one".

The mixed cash/stock payback note that has gone out is very encouraging.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#185496

Postby odysseus2000 » December 7th, 2018, 10:19 pm

Tesla interested in re-opening closed down GM plant:

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/tesla-ceo ... interview/

Likely there will be grants for so doing which was a point I made earlier.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186062

Postby odysseus2000 » December 11th, 2018, 5:21 am

A model 3 owners gives his cost of owning a long range model 3 after 10,000 miles:

https://youtu.be/x0MjZOR89Fk

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186157

Postby odysseus2000 » December 11th, 2018, 2:29 pm

Tesla pickup prototype next year?:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1072488765753618437

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186386

Postby dspp » December 12th, 2018, 3:54 pm

"All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity [Shenzen] are now electric, and soon [end Dec 2018] all 13,000 taxis will be too .........
.......40,000 charging piles. Shenzhen Bus Company has 180 depots with their own charging facilities installed. One of its major depots in Futian can accommodate around 20 buses at the same time. “Most of the buses we charge overnight for two hours and then they can run their entire service, as the range of the bus is 200km per charge,” says Ma.

More than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta; and Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi and Shandong.


https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... -bus-fleet

[edit: to put this in perspective there are 8,000 buses in London]

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186414

Postby odysseus2000 » December 12th, 2018, 5:41 pm

dspp wrote:"All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity [Shenzen] are now electric, and soon [end Dec 2018] all 13,000 taxis will be too .........
.......40,000 charging piles. Shenzhen Bus Company has 180 depots with their own charging facilities installed. One of its major depots in Futian can accommodate around 20 buses at the same time. “Most of the buses we charge overnight for two hours and then they can run their entire service, as the range of the bus is 200km per charge,” says Ma.

More than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta; and Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi and Shandong.


https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... -bus-fleet

[edit: to put this in perspective there are 8,000 buses in London]


One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186418

Postby dspp » December 12th, 2018, 5:49 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dspp wrote:"All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity [Shenzen] are now electric, and soon [end Dec 2018] all 13,000 taxis will be too .........
.......40,000 charging piles. Shenzhen Bus Company has 180 depots with their own charging facilities installed. One of its major depots in Futian can accommodate around 20 buses at the same time. “Most of the buses we charge overnight for two hours and then they can run their entire service, as the range of the bus is 200km per charge,” says Ma.

More than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta; and Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi and Shandong.


https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... -bus-fleet

[edit: to put this in perspective there are 8,000 buses in London]


One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,


In conventional vehicles cabin heat is obtained from the waste heat from the engines. In EVs they have limited waste heat to scavenge, so need to use electricity to provide heat. This reduces range and is, I think, the issue with cold (and with very hot places for air conditioning).

Regarding the hills there are two possible explanations. The first is that they may not have regenerative braking working well on these buses. A more subtle possibility is that you still have to have enough energy to get over the highest hill, even if you then recharge on the way down from regen braking. So you might have (say) 220 mile range, but not enough to get over a hill at (say) 190 miles. At the beginning of the journey you will have enough storage to get over any hill as you have a fully charged battery. But near the end of the journey there may be a hill between you and the destination that you can't quite get over. I'm not sure what explanation (or both) is correct.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186426

Postby tjh290633 » December 12th, 2018, 6:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,


Hydroelectric power is what you are missing.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186428

Postby dspp » December 12th, 2018, 7:00 pm

dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
dspp wrote:"All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity [Shenzen] are now electric, and soon [end Dec 2018] all 13,000 taxis will be too .........
.......40,000 charging piles. Shenzhen Bus Company has 180 depots with their own charging facilities installed. One of its major depots in Futian can accommodate around 20 buses at the same time. “Most of the buses we charge overnight for two hours and then they can run their entire service, as the range of the bus is 200km per charge,” says Ma.

More than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta; and Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi and Shandong.


https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... -bus-fleet

[edit: to put this in perspective there are 8,000 buses in London]


One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,


In conventional vehicles cabin heat is obtained from the waste heat from the engines. In EVs they have limited waste heat to scavenge, so need to use electricity to provide heat. This reduces range and is, I think, the issue with cold (and with very hot places for air conditioning).

Regarding the hills there are two possible explanations. The first is that they may not have regenerative braking working well on these buses. A more subtle possibility is that you still have to have enough energy to get over the highest hill, even if you then recharge on the way down from regen braking. So you might have (say) 220 mile range, but not enough to get over a hill at (say) 190 miles. At the beginning of the journey you will have enough storage to get over any hill as you have a fully charged battery. But near the end of the journey there may be a hill between you and the destination that you can't quite get over. I'm not sure what explanation (or both) is correct.

regards, dspp


Another more basic point occurred to me when out for my evening walk (up and down a hill, in the cold). That video you linked to a day or so ago about a Tesla 3 owner confirmed my rule-of-thumb that the best wall-to-battery charging efficiency is about 80%. So even the best regen braking will be 80%. So the hillier a route, the shorter the range, even with perfect regen control.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186431

Postby odysseus2000 » December 12th, 2018, 7:18 pm

dspp wrote:
dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,


In conventional vehicles cabin heat is obtained from the waste heat from the engines. In EVs they have limited waste heat to scavenge, so need to use electricity to provide heat. This reduces range and is, I think, the issue with cold (and with very hot places for air conditioning).

Regarding the hills there are two possible explanations. The first is that they may not have regenerative braking working well on these buses. A more subtle possibility is that you still have to have enough energy to get over the highest hill, even if you then recharge on the way down from regen braking. So you might have (say) 220 mile range, but not enough to get over a hill at (say) 190 miles. At the beginning of the journey you will have enough storage to get over any hill as you have a fully charged battery. But near the end of the journey there may be a hill between you and the destination that you can't quite get over. I'm not sure what explanation (or both) is correct.

regards, dspp


Another more basic point occurred to me when out for my evening walk (up and down a hill, in the cold). That video you linked to a day or so ago about a Tesla 3 owner confirmed my rule-of-thumb that the best wall-to-battery charging efficiency is about 80%. So even the best regen braking will be 80%. So the hillier a route, the shorter the range, even with perfect regen control.

regards, dspp


These folk say the Tesla efficiency is 0.8x0.8 = 0.64 for regenerative breaking:

https://www.quora.com/How-efficient-is- ... e-recycled

It would seem that one would need bigger batteries for hilly conditions.

Yes, additional heating and or cooling could also be an issue, running AC on ice engines does hurt the mpg.

Thank you for your answers.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186435

Postby odysseus2000 » December 12th, 2018, 7:22 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:One of the interesting aspects of the Guardian article was that electric buses are unsuitable for cold districts and hills. This seems strange to me as one of the biggest markets for electric traction is Norway which has lots of hills and is very cold.

Perhaps I am missing something. I would welcome comments

Regards,


Hydroelectric power is what you are missing.

TJH


I was more referring to the fact that Norway is both cold and hilly and yet Tesla don't seem to have troubles there.

Norway is one of Tesla's biggest markets because of tax on ice engines and much lower tax on electric. Yes, there is also lots of electricity although hydro is much more of a storable system than a hydrocarbon generator as you can control the amount of water consumption and store the power for when demand is largest.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186486

Postby dspp » December 12th, 2018, 9:57 pm

Various folk coming through with Q4 predictions.

One chap at 91,000 https://seekingalpha.com/article/422797 ... app=1&dr=1

Another at 89,500 https://seekingalpha.com/article/422788 ... -boom-bust

Personally mine is 81,000

What's yours ? , and what bottom line number ?

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186872

Postby redsturgeon » December 14th, 2018, 3:55 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... ute-charge

This news from BMW and Porsche might be significant. 62 miles worth of power from a 3 minutes charge.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186880

Postby BobbyD » December 14th, 2018, 4:20 pm

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-13/bmw-and-porsche-lap-tesla-race-3-minute-charge

This news from BMW and Porsche might be significant. 62 miles worth of power from a 3 minutes charge.

John


Not surprising given what we already knew about the charging capacity of Porsche and BMW but nice to see paper figures solidifying in to real performance benefits.

I don't think this is that surprising either, although other might

But even more astonishing is that more than half of the people that are signing up to pre-order the Porsche aren't already Porsche owners. In fact, the number one brand owned by those who are pre-ordering the Porsche is Tesla.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186905

Postby Howard » December 14th, 2018, 5:24 pm

dspp wrote:Various folk coming through with Q4 predictions.

One chap at 91,000 https://seekingalpha.com/article/422797 ... app=1&dr=1

Another at 89,500 https://seekingalpha.com/article/422788 ... -boom-bust

Personally mine is 81,000

What's yours ? , and what bottom line number ?

- dspp



I see that others are drawing the same conclusion that I did in a post a couple of weeks ago. The fact that the model 3 is available for immediate delivery in the USA is not necessarily a good sign. Have Tesla now supplied all the early adopters?

The attached article isn't based on any hard facts but it makes interesting reading for us sceptics.

Summary
Tesla's website tells us that Model 3 is now available for immediate delivery, a strong indication that the backlog is depleted. Ongoing orders are nowhere near enough to sustain production.

The lower priced mid-range variant has not provided the sales boost that Tesla needed to keep its lines running at capacity till the end of the year.

December sales are lagging because buyers were told they had to order in November to get the full FIT credit.

Inventory is building, and production is being reduced.

Tesla will likely miss its sales targets for Q4.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/422834 ... ts-model-3

Too early to come to firm conclusions in my view but it will be interesting to see the first quarter sales figures next year.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#186909

Postby BobbyD » December 14th, 2018, 5:41 pm

Howard wrote:I see that others are drawing the same conclusion that I did in a post a couple of weeks ago. The fact that the model 3 is available for immediate delivery in the USA is not necessarily a good sign. Have Tesla now supplied all the early adopters?


Also what was sexy new tech back in the dark ages when many placed their deposits is now looking less interesting compared to what might just be around the corner...

It would be somewhat ironic if Tesla finally managed to get their production up just as demand went over the cliff edge. Having said that apparently Porsche have already taken enough deposits to cover the first year's Taycan production so some people might be forced to buy a Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#187510

Postby Howard » December 17th, 2018, 5:55 pm

dspp wrote:@PeterGray, @Howard,

esp for Howard. I am not ignoring S&M at all. But I regard it as a done deal at the present time. Tesla have 12-24 months worth of orders in the USA alone at present. Once through EU homologation they could probably set up a EU line just on the back of demand in Norway. Yes VW may use the IDneo Golf EV replacement to try to make a cheaper vehicle, without the bells & whilstles, but that would be backing the same strategy that has caused the incumbents to repeatedly fail in this space. BECAUSE the EV is a high-capex purchase, the marginal cost of the bells and whilstles is trivial compared with the mrginal VALUE (as perceived by customer). Therefore at present the better strategy is to go top down. When the equation switches andf the EV reaches capex parity with ICE, then ICE is simply dead, and by then Tesla (with its insourced autonomy) can simply include the autonomy etc for trivial amounts as it makes mfg cheaper.


regards, dspp


dspp

I hope you don't mind my going back to a reply of yours in November. It was to a post of mine where I (perhaps presumptuously) was reminding the engineers who were posting that selling cars required more than just technology and stressing the importance of understanding the customer and getting the marketing right.

My thesis was, and is, that the wealthy early adopters in California are not representative of the likely purchasers of electric cars elsewhere in the USA and especially in China and Europe. And that Tesla will have an uphill task selling against their established European and Japanese competitors and the new Chinese manufacturers.

Your forecast a month ago that Tesla have 12-24 months of orders is looking optimistic. If it is correct, why are they offering 16 day delivery quotes to potential customers for customised cars which haven't yet been produced? Surely they aren't favouring them over customers who paid deposits a year or two ago and still haven't got their cars. Are Tesla running out of customers now they have ramped up production? I know the US government incentive runs out at the end of December, but surely Tesla aren't double-crossing patient and loyal deposit payers to get new customers - that would be a risky strategy.

Also a key question is being asked by car reviewers. Do Teslas look a bit old-fashioned compared with the stylish electric models being launched by Audi for example? Style is so important when you are selling cars for $40-$100,000.

As an investor, I would be wary of backing a company which still has so much to prove.

The source for the concern about short deliveries is below. No hard facts yet, but the logic is persuasive!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422868 ... t-expiring

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#187528

Postby dspp » December 17th, 2018, 7:06 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:@PeterGray, @Howard,

esp for Howard. I am not ignoring S&M at all. But I regard it as a done deal at the present time. Tesla have 12-24 months worth of orders in the USA alone at present. Once through EU homologation they could probably set up a EU line just on the back of demand in Norway. Yes VW may use the IDneo Golf EV replacement to try to make a cheaper vehicle, without the bells & whilstles, but that would be backing the same strategy that has caused the incumbents to repeatedly fail in this space. BECAUSE the EV is a high-capex purchase, the marginal cost of the bells and whilstles is trivial compared with the mrginal VALUE (as perceived by customer). Therefore at present the better strategy is to go top down. When the equation switches andf the EV reaches capex parity with ICE, then ICE is simply dead, and by then Tesla (with its insourced autonomy) can simply include the autonomy etc for trivial amounts as it makes mfg cheaper.


regards, dspp


dspp

I hope you don't mind my going back to a reply of yours in November. It was to a post of mine where I (perhaps presumptuously) was reminding the engineers who were posting that selling cars required more than just technology and stressing the importance of understanding the customer and getting the marketing right.

My thesis was, and is, that the wealthy early adopters in California are not representative of the likely purchasers of electric cars elsewhere in the USA and especially in China and Europe. And that Tesla will have an uphill task selling against their established European and Japanese competitors and the new Chinese manufacturers.

Your forecast a month ago that Tesla have 12-24 months of orders is looking optimistic. If it is correct, why are they offering 16 day delivery quotes to potential customers for customised cars which haven't yet been produced? Surely they aren't favouring them over customers who paid deposits a year or two ago and still haven't got their cars. Are Tesla running out of customers now they have ramped up production? I know the US government incentive runs out at the end of December, but surely Tesla aren't double-crossing patient and loyal deposit payers to get new customers - that would be a risky strategy.

Also a key question is being asked by car reviewers. Do Teslas look a bit old-fashioned compared with the stylish electric models being launched by Audi for example? Style is so important when you are selling cars for $40-$100,000.

As an investor, I would be wary of backing a company which still has so much to prove.

The source for the concern about short deliveries is below. No hard facts yet, but the logic is persuasive!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422868 ... t-expiring

regards

Howard


Howard,

I've also just been catching up on SA stuff. The Kona sure looks like a compliance car in its EV form, with very limited volumes, probably in part because of battery supply issues. The i-pace is higher volume, but not low volume, and again I wonder about battery supply constraints. The upgraded Leaf does look as if it will be useful and has less of a supply chain constraint. Pretty much everything else is coming along much later, not early 2019, and charger networks are not as good as Tesla at this stage.

I thought this was an interesting SA article on segmentation and demand curve https://seekingalpha.com/article/422872 ... domination . You can see him trying to explain the Tesla stretch (quite well !) in terms of partly the inbuilt running cost advantage; and also in terms of the bells & whistles (aka software etc). But it is a very decent stab at a demand curve.

Your comment about the evaporating demand is (as you say) just relaying what some of those SA articles are saying. I am not sure their evidence is strong enough yet, though I will accept that some of the evidence is in their favour. In another month the statistics ought to be on our screens to show which was more believable. The announced investments in more batteries at Giga1 in Nevada support there being sufficient demand, but even they are a bit odd when the detail is perused. EU homologation is an unknown, and if that is resolved then there will be an inventory pipeline to be stuffed.

I think Tesla are going to have do some things regarding model variants in order to properly crack non-US markets. Specifically a hatchback 3 and an estate 3. The Y is also going to be important globally (off the 3 platform), and the pickup for the US. Putting out the SR 3 can be done as/when required. My hypothesis is that they will be releasing these models, and variants, at a sufficient pace over the next 2-3 years to keep Tesla growing at a good trajectory, provided Musk doesn't wreck it. And of course they do need to keep on building out service centres and the charger network. Plus improving quality. And the next two factory-pairs. I fully admit it is a big task and a big journey.

I am holding for now. I'm up 20% in 2-months since my initial entry which came at the point where I saw them get through the survival question. I can see a weak point coming in about 4m time where bond paybacks and cashflow and news flow might all conspire to depress the stock price. I am mulling over whether to sell then aim to buy back at that lower point. However I know that I am not a good trader so to try that would be going against my normal pattern. Others around here are better at that stuff than I am. On balance I am minded to hold. I fully accept that your points need to be taken seriously, which is why I am watching the same things you are, even if I am less persuaded by them than you are.

(by the way I am expecting the storage line figures to start being meaningful during 2019. Solar roofs not though)

regards, dspp


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