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moorfield HYRP

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
moorfield
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moorfield HYRP

#165569

Postby moorfield » September 10th, 2018, 9:27 pm

Preamble

This is a continuation of the moorfield HYP thread with the title deliberately changed to HYRP, ie. High Yield Retirement Plan. I want to acknowledge that pyad's HYP canon has heavily influenced my investment approach, and still does, but also give myself room to deviate from that. Having read much of the is-it/isn't-it HYP wrangling on HYP Practical and Biscuit Bar boards, I don't want any readers to feel that I am misappropriating the acronym here.


2018 Update




A top-up of HSBA today brings overall income up to target for the year, ie. assuming no further change - buys or sells, dividend cuts or increases, fx fluctuations, corporate actions - the portfolio yields an annual income of: units * 1546.1p . (cash received in this year will be less due to inter- and ex-div buys.)

More pleasingly, this marks a recovery to health following the collapse of CLLN (Carillion), which at the height of its infamy accounted for 4.7% of capital and 8.5% of income. It grates this has been lost, but that hasn’t blown the plan off target nor has it forced any “upcycling” of low yielders to make up target shortfall.

(There has also been some sleight of hand at work, I transferred in a stakeholder pension earlier this year which increased no. accumulation units, and overall target income in proportion, providing an additional cash lump sum to invest.)


Portfolio (10 September)

Three new holdings from FTSE100 have been added: GSK, HSBA and IMB; and CLLN is now dropped (my broker lists the shares as suspended with zero value). I don't feel any strong urge to collect more than 20 across 16 sectors for now (despite the duplication, and unless any corporate actions give me more freebees).




So that's job done for 2018. Unless anything interesting or unexpected happens, the next update and trading will be done next year after the SSE demerger has completed. In the meantime, the portfolio will be left alone to continue accumulating cash.

M

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#166100

Postby Wizard » September 13th, 2018, 2:18 pm

Looks good Moorfield. I agree best to stay clear of HYP Practical unless you are hitting a bullseye on the guidelines, with some preference shares in the mix your portfolio is clearly not HYP Practical material, unless you break it apart and take out SAN and STAC. Speaking of the preference shares, would you consider adding more? Do you see them as 'fully priced'? Has the Aviva scare caused you any concern?

Terry.

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#166177

Postby moorfield » September 13th, 2018, 9:13 pm

Wizard wrote:Looks good Moorfield. I agree best to stay clear of HYP Practical unless you are hitting a bullseye on the guidelines, with some preference shares in the mix your portfolio is clearly not HYP Practical material, unless you break it apart and take out SAN and STAC.


Thanks Terry. You are looking at my whole retirement plan, to which I may start adding ITs in years to come. I can't be bothered with the pfaff of separating bits out, so yes I felt it made sense to drop HYP from the thread title now.

Speaking of the preference shares, would you consider adding more? Do you see them as 'fully priced'? Has the Aviva scare caused you any concern?


I certainly feel SAN, STAC have been richly priced for a while, and there was a brief window of opportunity to sell and replace them with (only just) higher yielding HSBA earlier this year, however that transaction would have cost me as much again as the annual custody charge of the whole portfolio, so I've just added HSBA instead. I don't need to tinker them while overall income remains on target.

I'll continue to add or top-up preference shares at yields >= 2* benchmark yield (CTY.L, currently 4.2%), also at which I'll stop add or top-up of ordinary shares (eg. CNA) - the thinking being that if/when I am going to chase very high yield with new money I'll use preference shares to do that, at which level their dividends should be more reliable, albeit fixed.

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Re: moorfield HYRP - Black Friday

#182519

Postby moorfield » November 23rd, 2018, 12:49 pm

Black Friday

I've used a free dealing offer today to do some unscheduled tidying up: (i) STAC sold and SAN bought to reduce sector duplication (ii) AZN trimmed and GSK bought to balance sector incomes (iii) WTB sold ahead of its cash return to avoid ending up with a low yield rump holding (iv) WPP topped up.

As a result that leaves 18 holdings across 15 sectors and 13 months of target income in cash, which gives me scope to diversify (*). I'll attend to that in the new year; in the meantime, I've got some spreadsheet crunching to do.



(*) the shortlist from FTSE100 sectors I don't already hold is probably one of MKS, RIO, BT.A - I'm open to suggestions!

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Re: moorfield HYRP - Black Friday

#182841

Postby andyalan10 » November 25th, 2018, 5:07 pm

moorfield wrote:Black Friday

(*) the shortlist from FTSE100 sectors I don't already hold is probably one of MKS, RIO, BT.A - I'm open to suggestions!


My thinking would favour RIO. I don't see much overlap with JMAT, although they are described as basic materials, and you only have a small dose of oil in a similar sector. BT has had a reasonable run recently, but owning EE makes it overlap with VOD to an extent. I'm currently out of retail, or i was until I incorrectly thought that Superdry had fallen too far a few weeks ago. I have seen negative broker comment recently on RIO (over exposed to iron ore) and positive on Glencore, but hold RIO in my roughly 2/3 HYP portfolio.

Andy

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#182844

Postby monabri » November 25th, 2018, 5:21 pm

My suggestion would be Blackrock Commodities BRCI.
Current discount of 9% to NAV and a yield of 5.8%.

Security Weight
Rio Tinto plc Ordinary 10p 9.16%
BHP Billiton PLC 8.73%
Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares EUR0.07 7.14%
Glencore plc Ord USD0.01 6.04%
Chevron Corp 5.29%
BP Plc Ordinary US$0.25 4.58%
Exxon Mobil Corp 3.93%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. 0% 3.53%
Marathon Oil Corp 3.34%
ConocoPhillips 3.25%

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Re: moorfield HYRP - Black Friday

#182887

Postby 77ss » November 25th, 2018, 8:15 pm

moorfield wrote: the shortlist from FTSE100 sectors I don't already hold is probably one of MKS, RIO, BT.A - I'm open to suggestions!


FWIW, RIO every time. Current yield of 6.2%. The share price (and dividend) can fluctuate alarmingly, but it always seems to come good in the end (so far, anyway). I've held for 20 years now, and am contemplating a top-up if the share price drops much further.

I wouldn't touch MKS with a bargepole - 'The reality is M&S is a dinosaur in the 21st century retail landscape. And, sadly, M&S may face extinction.'

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/20 ... s-spencer/

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Re: moorfield HYRP - Black Friday

#183038

Postby moorfield » November 26th, 2018, 2:43 pm

Thanks all. As far back as I can see (2006) RIO has paid a dividend, with one chunky cut in 2009. I'll have a picker over Christmas, but it's looking like the new hire.

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-king ... /dividends

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Re: moorfield HYRP - Black Friday

#183048

Postby kempiejon » November 26th, 2018, 4:22 pm

moorfield wrote:Thanks all. As far back as I can see (2006) RIO has paid a dividend, with one chunky cut in 2009. I'll have a picker over Christmas, but it's looking like the new hire.

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-king ... /dividends

This goes a bit further back
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... y?epic=RIO
and of course there's the horses mouth, http://www.riotinto.com/investors/rio-t ... -7991.aspx

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Re: moorfield HYRP - 2018 Result / 2019 Target

#190660

Postby moorfield » January 2nd, 2019, 7:40 pm

2018 Result / 2019 Target




Income (ntm - next twelve months) assumes dividends paid in the last twelve will be paid in the next for each holding, until announced otherwise. Cashflow received in the year reflects the timing of inter- and ex-div buys, and includes special dividends. Units (acc) are used here to redact the nominal amounts.

(*) guesstimated present value of target income is: units * 3054.2p (exceeds higher rate income tax threshold)

The first chart below shows a graph of this table. The second shows cashflow relative to the target line; a shortfall last year due to the combined effects of the lost CLLN dividend and ex-div buys which are expected to generate more next year.


Image

Image


Trading & Costs




A busier year due to investment of a lump sum contribution and the Black Friday dealing day (see previous).


Portfolio (31 December)

Little has changed since Black Friday, the portfolio now comprises 18 holdings across 15 sectors, with 11 months of (2019) target income in cash. The chart below shows the distribution of capital and income per industry classifications.




(*) for a change, I'm presenting yields relative to benchmark, CTY (City of London IT) 4.7%, which replicates closely +/-0.1% the FTSE100 yield. On this measure the most oversold holding (biggest riser) last year was BATS, the most overbought (biggest faller) were AZN and surprisingly CNA.


Image



I'm suspending further buying until February and/or the state of Brexit becomes clearer, in mitigation of a continuing collapse of share prices; and unless anything interesting or unexpected happens, I'm not planning another update until the autumn. In the meantime, Happy New Year 2019 to All, and Thankyou to Mods for keeping LF running.


M

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#190695

Postby tjh290633 » January 2nd, 2019, 11:12 pm

With a long timescale, you may find it better to use a log/linear chart to record progress. That should be a straight line for the result that you want. Hopefully your actual graph will lie above the desired result.

TJH

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#190710

Postby Arborbridge » January 3rd, 2019, 7:21 am

moorfield wrote:Preamble

I want to acknowledge that pyad's HYP canon has heavily influenced my investment approach, and still does, but also give myself room to deviate from that. Having read much of the is-it/isn't-it HYP wrangling on HYP Practical and Biscuit Bar boards, I don't want any readers to feel that I am misappropriating the acronym here.





Well, your choice, of course, but it looks like a HYP to me, with a couple of add ons. I never quite see the point of confusing the picture like this when one could easily just run a HYP then have loads of other things outside - which is what I and many others do. This HYP would then sit very comfortably on the HYP Practical board. I have a significant portfolio of ITs and OEICS - it's just that I don't mention them much except in passing on the HYP board.

You are throwing away a tremendous opportunity of studying whether running your HYP real works as well as the other concepts, and you will never get that chance again.

Arb.

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#190735

Postby moorfield » January 3rd, 2019, 9:04 am

tjh290633 wrote:With a long timescale, you may find it better to use a log/linear chart to record progress. That should be a straight line for the result that you want. Hopefully your actual graph will lie above the desired result.



Thanks TJH, yes I may try that in future. What I hope is conveyed at least is the clear sense of direction - the majority of reviews I read here tend to sweat last year's details of capital, unit movements, tinkers etc. I'm feeling less of a need to do that while that yellow line behaves itself.

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#190737

Postby moorfield » January 3rd, 2019, 9:16 am

Arborbridge wrote:Well, your choice, of course, but it looks like a HYP to me, with a couple of add ons. I never quite see the point of confusing the picture like this when one could easily just run a HYP then have loads of other things outside - which is what I and many others do.


Hah, I'm not rising to that one here. ;) It is very probable I will start adding/shifting surplus income into ITs over the next decade, and as I wrote previous, I quite simply can't be bothered with the pfaff of separating different bits out.

The Big Picture, ie. overall income, is what matters to me on this thread, not the implementation.

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#190738

Postby Arborbridge » January 3rd, 2019, 9:22 am

moorfield wrote:
Hah, I'm not rising to that one here. ;) It is very probable I will start adding/shifting surplus income into ITs over the next decade, and as I wrote previous, I quite simply can't be bothered with the pfaff of separating different bits out.

The Big Picture, ie. overall income, is what matters to me on this thread, not the implementation.


:lol:

Fairy nuff. Shame to lose your HYP from the practical board though, as it's a useful addition. I know you'll argue we haven't technical "lost" it, but personally I've never even looked at this board before today: foreign lands where they do things differently :o

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#220829

Postby moorfield » May 11th, 2019, 11:01 am

2019 Update

A brief update, following additions of RIO and TUI into the portfolio thus far.



That is my cue to cease trading for the rest of the year, which has occurred much earlier than last (10 September). With more results to come during Q2/Q3 I can reasonably expect Income (ntm) to increase further, however it currently assumes that CNA will be paying a 3.60p interim in November which may not happen, so more buys could be needed to stay on target - we shall see.

Snoozing and collecting dividends over the summer. Bonnes vacances a tous.

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Re: moorfield HYRP

#222582

Postby moorfield » May 17th, 2019, 10:45 pm

Vodafone and Sage

A bruising week.

No sooner had I written the above, Income (ntm) changes again following the announcements of Vodafone's cut and - a small mercy - Sage's increase of their interims due later this year (in Vodafone's case I've estimated the GBP amount using its last exchange rate - that will be updated again once the next is known). The ~3.6% drop on last weeks provisional betrays a large holding of Vodafone, see 31 December, but I'm pleased that my "2.0x CTY" yield ceiling (discussed elsewhere) has helped stop me buying more since last year.



So that snooze didn't last long :oops: ! More buys will be needed this year to stay on target.

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Re: moorfield HYRP - How big is your pension?

#246737

Postby moorfield » August 24th, 2019, 12:05 pm

How big is your pension and will it be enough for a comfortable old age?

Two in three workers aged 45-plus are unprepared for retirement and a third don't know how much they have saved up so far, new research reveals.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensi ... d-age.html

I thought I'd share this article because this is precisely the question I started out trying to answer by measuring portfolio performance against an income target each year, as posted above #190660. Despite the VOD and CNA dividend cuts additional buys have since restored portfolio income (ntm) to its target for this year.

I am one of the three who are prepared 8-). Are you?

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Re: moorfield HYRP - 2019 Result / 2020 Target

#275020

Postby moorfield » January 3rd, 2020, 11:15 pm

2019 Result / 2020 Target




A mixed year. Income (ntm) met its target but Cashflow lagged, chiefly because CNA and VOD cut their dividends, RE.B deferred its cumulative dividend (not cancelled, yet), and TUI was bought ex dividend. Acc Unit value gained +19.8%, Portfolio Xirr since inception was +10.5%.

Next year's target looks challenging; the initial forecast factors known dividend cuts from CNA, SSE and TUI. High yield buys and dividend increases elsewhere will again be needed to keep up. The two largest holdings and a pref will be trimmed next week for higher yields - LGEN for AV., AZN for GSK, and SAN for HSBA. A lump sum contribution will be added before April (tax planning).


Trading & Costs


A change of measurement. Costs/Income is costs (custody, dealing, stamp duty) as a percentage of cashflow income, which I feel is more useful than TER.




Portfolio (2 January)


20 holdings in 17 sectors and 6 months of (2020) target income in cash.




Happy New Year 2020 to All, and Thankyou to Mods for keeping LF running.

M

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Re: moorfield HYRP - 2019 Result / 2020 Target

#275422

Postby Wizard » January 6th, 2020, 1:03 am

moorfield wrote:2019 Result / 2020 Target




A mixed year. Income (ntm) met its target but Cashflow lagged, chiefly because CNA and VOD cut their dividends, RE.B deferred its cumulative dividend (not cancelled, yet), and TUI was bought ex dividend. Acc Unit value gained +19.8%, Portfolio Xirr since inception was +10.5%.

Next year's target looks challenging; the initial forecast factors known dividend cuts from CNA, SSE and TUI. High yield buys and dividend increases elsewhere will again be needed to keep up. The two largest holdings and a pref will be trimmed next week for higher yields - LGEN for AV., AZN for GSK, and SAN for HSBA. A lump sum contribution will be added before April (tax planning).


Trading & Costs


A change of measurement. Costs/Income is costs (custody, dealing, stamp duty) as a percentage of cashflow income, which I feel is more useful than TER.




Portfolio (2 January)


20 holdings in 17 sectors and 6 months of (2020) target income in cash.




Happy New Year 2020 to All, and Thankyou to Mods for keeping LF running.

M

So if RE.B pays the deferred divis shortly (market seems to think that is possible given CPO price and recovery in prrf price), is that income this year or last year?


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