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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#191777

Postby BobbyD » January 7th, 2019, 8:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.


This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#191785

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 8:21 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.


This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...


The reviewer probably wants Tesla to argue with him, it would be good for views.

Of the faults shown, Orange peel is likely contamination, the scratches: Either it was out of the oven too soon before the paint hardened, or was scratched during delivery and the dust spot was indeed likely dust

Nonetheless automotive paint with a clear coat is extremely hard and durable.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#191788

Postby odysseus2000 » January 7th, 2019, 8:34 pm

BobbyD wrote:Daimler buying lots of battery cells and opening large battery assembly plant network, whilst planning to reduce reliance on Cobalt before eliminating it in move to solid state, plus brief overview of different battery chemistries used, difficult to quote without quoting extensively: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daiml ... KKBN1OA0O2


As anyone demonstrated a practical solid state battery?

Lots of folk say they will use them but I can find neither a price or anyone who says they can make them commercially, just various sites saying they are producing them, but providing no details.

The idea is around 70 years old, so one might have thought if it was possible that someone would be making them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#191793

Postby dspp » January 7th, 2019, 8:51 pm

My experience of US automotive paint is that it is much lower quality than EU or Japanese paint jobs. Just look around you as you cruise the states, and all you see is faded peeling paint. That has been a specific concern of mine as they will need to compete outside the US from US-origin production for a goodly few years, which is not a normal state of affairs for US auto. Tesla do need to improve paint quality in many respects.

Tesla is known to have had real issues with their particular Fremont factory paint shop. They had to basically strip & rebuild it. The problems are well known - see for example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/tesla-f ... rkers.html and this has contributed to the historical paint quality issues. That said the video paint is a) some delivery scrapes, but b) also dates from after the paint shop rebuild and so should have been fixed.

My auto colleagues once explained panel gaps to me, and it sounded complicated with many contributing factors. Personally it is not something I get wound up over as I only drive bangernomics that have been dunted about. If I was prioritising mfg improvements it would not be at the top of my list (paint would be high, capacity would be higher). But eventually it does all need to be sweated.

More important for me are the tolerances in the active parts (motors etc) and there is a) less of that in a BEV than in ICE, and b) not a great deal of evidence that there are significant issues with Tesla mfg in this area.

Overall this is about where the evidence is that Tesla is at on the quality pathway. It needs attention, but it is not quite the #1 issue for mfg. That is #1 capacity expansion (USA, China) and #2 model introduction (Y). I'd put charger buildout at #3 and quality at #4. Autonomy (FSD) is a R&D/PD item, not a mfg item so not ranked, but if I had to resource allocate it would get #2.5.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191804

Postby PeterGray » January 7th, 2019, 9:14 pm

My auto colleagues once explained panel gaps to me, and it sounded complicated with many contributing factors. Personally it is not something I get wound up over as I only drive bangernomics that have been dunted about. If I was prioritising mfg improvements it would not be at the top of my list (paint would be high, capacity would be higher). But eventually it does all need to be sweated.

Slightly miss matched panels wouldn't worry me directly, for much the same reason. But I would worry at what they suggest about the tolerances where you don't see them. And if I can buy a car where I don't have to worry about that as an alternative I would do so (and importantly in terms of this discussion - I doubt I'd be alone).

Overall this is about where the evidence is that Tesla is at on the quality pathway. It needs attention, but it is not quite the #1 issue for mfg. That is #1 capacity expansion (USA, China) and #2 model introduction (Y). I'd put charger buildout at #3 and quality at #4. Autonomy (FSD) is a R&D/PD item, not a mfg item so not ranked, but if I had to resource allocate it would get #2.5.

But the problem there is that a big push to production expansion, as over the summer, is likely to increase the probability of taking the eye off the ball on quality. I agree, from the business model point of view volume is probably #1, but as a potential customer - would I really want to buy a car at this stage of the manufacturers journey? When I have would have possible alternatives from manufacturers with loads of experience and proven quality control, who don't need to rush to more production at all costs, why would I?

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#191912

Postby odysseus2000 » January 8th, 2019, 11:19 am

Ellison has a $1 billion stake in Tesla:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ling-shows

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Re: Musk endeavours

#191999

Postby Howard » January 8th, 2019, 6:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.


This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...


The reviewer probably wants Tesla to argue with him, it would be good for views.

Of the faults shown, Orange peel is likely contamination, the scratches: Either it was out of the oven too soon before the paint hardened, or was scratched during delivery and the dust spot was indeed likely dust

Nonetheless automotive paint with a clear coat is extremely hard and durable.

Regards,


I don't think the poster is short of views, he's just exceeded 2 million. His videos I've looked at aren't at all bad. Including his test drive of his new Tesla. Fairly grounded in my view.

We are beginning to see more indications now on Tesla Q4 sales. Europe isn't looking too good. Norway appears seriously down despite a deal with Avis who are likely to provide loan cars for Tesla customers who have problems with their existing cars. And China is going to be a problem market in the current situation. One question being asked now is why buy a ridiculously expensive Tesla when you can buy a cheaper model 3? Will the expensive model sales be cannabalised?

If I had a billion dollars I might invest a few thousand in Tesla stock but not the lot.

(That caution may explain why I haven't got a billion dollars :lol:)

As usual, the post below has to be read with a sceptical eye.

regards

Howard

Tesla: These Numbers Aren't Good

Summary
VIN registrations have basically flatlined.

European sales continue to struggle.

China factory timeline? What about other plans?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423204 ... ood?page=2

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#192036

Postby BobbyD » January 8th, 2019, 9:36 pm

Howard wrote:We are beginning to see more indications now on Tesla Q4 sales. Europe isn't looking too good. Norway appears seriously down despite a deal with Avis who are likely to provide loan cars for Tesla customers who have problems with their existing cars. And China is going to be a problem market in the current situation.



I saw a comment the other day that people (eg Americans) aren't buying EV's, they are buying Teslas and that in fact non-Tesla sales were down in the US. Is Tesla really an international player, or is it a domestic player with one highly vulnerable overseas market and a little light exporting on the side?

Speaking of Norway, sounds like a really bad market not to shine in if your business is EV:



https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/12/n ... -2018.html wrote:
Norway November 2018

...Proof of that are plug-ins reaching 57% share last month, with the fuels mix now showing BEVs well above everyone else (41%), followed by gasoline and diesel, both with 17% share.

At this pace, Diesel should be dead in Norway in two years time...

Image

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Re: Musk endeavours

#192344

Postby dspp » January 10th, 2019, 11:01 am

"Their [Byton automotive] manufacturing plant [in Nanjing, China] which only broke ground in September 2017, is now progressing at an amazing speed, and is on schedule for completion later this year [2019]"

https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/0 ... ce-at-ces/

Byton are another EV manufacturer. This suggests approx 24-months to build a EV factory in China. Interesting ..........

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#192705

Postby dspp » January 11th, 2019, 12:39 pm

A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#192916

Postby odysseus2000 » January 12th, 2019, 12:04 am

dspp wrote:A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html


Interesting article, but I wonder how accurate it is.

E.g Dyson are apparently spending £2.5 billion in Singapore & yet don't make the list:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... c-car-2020

There is also the reliability of some of the other numbers, some of which look high to me, but the thesis that cars are going electric is now undeniable.

I am still mystified re the claimed solid state storage systems, such as the Dyson link mentions. I can find little data on these, no figures for energy density or cost. So far they all look to be marketing wishful thinking

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Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#192919

Postby Howard » January 12th, 2019, 12:48 am

dspp wrote:A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html


Interesting forecasts. They mirror some predictions made in this forum last year, especially re VW Group. If they prove to be half accurate, Tesla is up against some giant initiatives which will dwarf its endeavours.

There is a danger it is too US-orientated at the moment. To be successful in other markets it will need to work hard on its quality image.

China is going to be an interesting environment for EV sales. If its economy slows over the next 10 years it may end up with an oversupply of EV manufacturing plants. Presumably the European manufacturers are aware of this and may be considering importing some Chinese-made models back into their home markets.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#193211

Postby odysseus2000 » January 13th, 2019, 12:57 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html


Interesting forecasts. They mirror some predictions made in this forum last year, especially re VW Group. If they prove to be half accurate, Tesla is up against some giant initiatives which will dwarf its endeavours.

There is a danger it is too US-orientated at the moment. To be successful in other markets it will need to work hard on its quality image.

China is going to be an interesting environment for EV sales. If its economy slows over the next 10 years it may end up with an oversupply of EV manufacturing plants. Presumably the European manufacturers are aware of this and may be considering importing some Chinese-made models back into their home markets.

regards

Howard


I believe you are thinking too steady state here.

If all of this electrical vehicle production happens it will be revolutionary to the auto industry everywhere. In revolutions incumbents who don't respond quickly tend to get murdered, such that I imagine we will see new manufacturers rise & legacy ones go down, irrespective of the overall macro environment.

This is how it has always been, but nothing is guaranteed & one could easily see new manufacturers rise & fall in a few years as happened for example in the PC box industry. Anyone remember Gateway in the US & Tiny in the UK, or how IBM went from giant to fallen giant & still struggles.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#193967

Postby odysseus2000 » January 16th, 2019, 12:07 pm

I DIscovered that RS are selling solid state batteries:

https://uk.rs-online.com/web/c/batterie ... batteries/

The capacity is extraordinarily minute & the cost per kWh would be very significant.

Various other sources say solid state batteries are currently not commercial whereas many motor firms are advertising coming models with solid state batteries.

Perhaps I am wrong in believing that solid state batteries are as real as fusion reactors, but I would welcome correction.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#193999

Postby PeterGray » January 16th, 2019, 1:43 pm

I can see the form factor would make it very useful for certain applications, where you need a small amount of compact power storage on a PCI.

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#194001

Postby odysseus2000 » January 16th, 2019, 1:57 pm

PeterGray wrote:I can see the form factor would make it very useful for certain applications, where you need a small amount of compact power storage on a PCI.

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?



I wish I knew, I am seeing all the major motor manufacturers talking about solid state batteries & how they are much better & I can find many lab studies beginning 50+ years ago that say how wonderful they are. But I can find no practical devices or prices.

I am looking at these both in terms of Tesla competition & for some of my electronic products, but so far nothing is remotely close to lithium in energy storage & cost.

I may be missing something given all the propganda from auto makers, but so far I have yet to find anything practical.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#194027

Postby BobbyD » January 16th, 2019, 3:59 pm

PeterGray wrote:But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?


Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#194073

Postby odysseus2000 » January 16th, 2019, 7:06 pm

BobbyD wrote:
PeterGray wrote:But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?


Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.


Yes, I have read all of this stuff.

Do they exist as practical devices

Can I buy one and from where and how much?

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tjh290633
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Re: Musk endeavours

#194212

Postby tjh290633 » January 17th, 2019, 10:07 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
PeterGray wrote:But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?


Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.


Yes, I have read all of this stuff.

Do they exist as practical devices

Can I buy one and from where and how much?

Regards,

Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#194220

Postby ReformedCharacter » January 17th, 2019, 10:41 am

tjh290633 wrote:Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

I'm not sure that is correct. AFAIK the types of batteries in 'phones have liquid or polymer electrolytes and aren't considered 'solid state'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

RC


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