Musk endeavours

[Howard]

I beg to differ about the calliper usage.

There is no way anyone with any skill would damage paint work with a plastic calliper.

Car paintwork is tough, has to be to stand upto hail, dust etc.

This paintwork didn't even stand up to leaving the factory gates and getting delivered. If I were pursuing Tesla to make good on a botched paintjob'/delivery the very last thing I would do is put a video of myself making contact between the paint and anything Telsa might subsequently be able to claim I had made or exacerbated the damage to the paintwork with, particularly if the video were to end up with 730k million views...

The reviewer probably wants Tesla to argue with him, it would be good for views.

Of the faults shown, Orange peel is likely contamination, the scratches: Either it was out of the oven too soon before the paint hardened, or was scratched during delivery and the dust spot was indeed likely dust

Nonetheless automotive paint with a clear coat is extremely hard and durable.

Regards,

I don't think the poster is short of views, he's just exceeded 2 million. His videos I've looked at aren't at all bad. Including his test drive of his new Tesla. Fairly grounded in my view.

We are beginning to see more indications now on Tesla Q4 sales. Europe isn't looking too good. Norway appears seriously down despite a deal with Avis who are likely to provide loan cars for Tesla customers who have problems with their existing cars. And China is going to be a problem market in the current situation. One question being asked now is why buy a ridiculously expensive Tesla when you can buy a cheaper model 3? Will the expensive model sales be cannabalised?

If I had a billion dollars I might invest a few thousand in Tesla stock but not the lot.

(That caution may explain why I haven't got a billion dollars )

As usual, the post below has to be read with a sceptical eye.

regards

Howard

Tesla: These Numbers Aren't Good

Summary
VIN registrations have basically flatlined.

European sales continue to struggle.

China factory timeline? What about other plans?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423204 ... ood?page=2

[BobbyD]

We are beginning to see more indications now on Tesla Q4 sales. Europe isn't looking too good. Norway appears seriously down despite a deal with Avis who are likely to provide loan cars for Tesla customers who have problems with their existing cars. And China is going to be a problem market in the current situation.

I saw a comment the other day that people (eg Americans) aren't buying EV's, they are buying Teslas and that in fact non-Tesla sales were down in the US. Is Tesla really an international player, or is it a domestic player with one highly vulnerable overseas market and a little light exporting on the side?

Speaking of Norway, sounds like a really bad market not to shine in if your business is EV:

Norway November 2018

...Proof of that are plug-ins reaching 57% share last month, with the fuels mix now showing BEVs well above everyone else (41%), followed by gasoline and diesel, both with 17% share.

At this pace, Diesel should be dead in Norway in two years time...

[dspp]

"Their [Byton automotive] manufacturing plant [in Nanjing, China] which only broke ground in September 2017, is now progressing at an amazing speed, and is on schedule for completion later this year [2019]"

https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/0 ... ce-at-ces/

Byton are another EV manufacturer. This suggests approx 24-months to build a EV factory in China. Interesting ..........

- dspp

[dspp]

A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html

[odysseus2000]

A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html

Interesting article, but I wonder how accurate it is.

E.g Dyson are apparently spending £2.5 billion in Singapore & yet don't make the list:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... c-car-2020

There is also the reliability of some of the other numbers, some of which look high to me, but the thesis that cars are going electric is now undeniable.

I am still mystified re the claimed solid state storage systems, such as the Dyson link mentions. I can find little data on these, no figures for energy density or cost. So far they all look to be marketing wishful thinking

Regards,

[Howard]

A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html

Interesting forecasts. They mirror some predictions made in this forum last year, especially re VW Group. If they prove to be half accurate, Tesla is up against some giant initiatives which will dwarf its endeavours.

There is a danger it is too US-orientated at the moment. To be successful in other markets it will need to work hard on its quality image.

China is going to be an interesting environment for EV sales. If its economy slows over the next 10 years it may end up with an oversupply of EV manufacturing plants. Presumably the European manufacturers are aware of this and may be considering importing some Chinese-made models back into their home markets.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

A handy synopsis of all EV investment plans, both by manufacturer, and by source & destination country.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVE ... index.html

Interesting forecasts. They mirror some predictions made in this forum last year, especially re VW Group. If they prove to be half accurate, Tesla is up against some giant initiatives which will dwarf its endeavours.

There is a danger it is too US-orientated at the moment. To be successful in other markets it will need to work hard on its quality image.

China is going to be an interesting environment for EV sales. If its economy slows over the next 10 years it may end up with an oversupply of EV manufacturing plants. Presumably the European manufacturers are aware of this and may be considering importing some Chinese-made models back into their home markets.

regards

Howard

I believe you are thinking too steady state here.

If all of this electrical vehicle production happens it will be revolutionary to the auto industry everywhere. In revolutions incumbents who don't respond quickly tend to get murdered, such that I imagine we will see new manufacturers rise & legacy ones go down, irrespective of the overall macro environment.

This is how it has always been, but nothing is guaranteed & one could easily see new manufacturers rise & fall in a few years as happened for example in the PC box industry. Anyone remember Gateway in the US & Tiny in the UK, or how IBM went from giant to fallen giant & still struggles.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

I DIscovered that RS are selling solid state batteries:

https://uk.rs-online.com/web/c/batterie ... batteries/

The capacity is extraordinarily minute & the cost per kWh would be very significant.

Various other sources say solid state batteries are currently not commercial whereas many motor firms are advertising coming models with solid state batteries.

Perhaps I am wrong in believing that solid state batteries are as real as fusion reactors, but I would welcome correction.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

I can see the form factor would make it very useful for certain applications, where you need a small amount of compact power storage on a PCI.

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

[odysseus2000]

I can see the form factor would make it very useful for certain applications, where you need a small amount of compact power storage on a PCI.

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

I wish I knew, I am seeing all the major motor manufacturers talking about solid state batteries & how they are much better & I can find many lab studies beginning 50+ years ago that say how wonderful they are. But I can find no practical devices or prices.

I am looking at these both in terms of Tesla competition & for some of my electronic products, but so far nothing is remotely close to lithium in energy storage & cost.

I may be missing something given all the propganda from auto makers, but so far I have yet to find anything practical.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.

[odysseus2000]

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.

Yes, I have read all of this stuff.

Do they exist as practical devices

Can I buy one and from where and how much?

Regards,

[tjh290633]

But other than that, what - if any - are the advantages of solid state batteries? Do they have a longer life, more recharge cycles?

Energy density, energy density, less charge cycle degradation, energy density, less prone to turning in to fireballs, energy density.

Yes, I have read all of this stuff.

Do they exist as practical devices

Can I buy one and from where and how much?

Regards,

Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

[ReformedCharacter]

Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

I'm not sure that is correct. AFAIK the types of batteries in 'phones have liquid or polymer electrolytes and aren't considered 'solid state'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

RC

[odysseus2000]

Don't you have one in your mobile phone?

The principle is the same, the scale is different.

TJH

I'm not sure that is correct. AFAIK the types of batteries in 'phones have liquid or polymer electrolytes and aren't considered 'solid state'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

RC

Yes, phone batteries are lithium ion polymer, lipo for short.

These are fabulous batteries, the best I have ever used, but if you peruse the sites of competitors to Tesla, they go on about how they will use solid state batteries as they have many advantages.

As far as I have yet found there are no commercial solid state batteries in existence, just some potentially interesting lab tests and the odd link to secret production.

If Tesla competitors are to use solid state batteries they are either promoting something that they believe will happen or are presenting longitudinal inexactitudes to hurt sales of existing electric vehicles, by saying a new technology will come shortly.

I am interested in solid state batteries for a number of reasons but so far I have found no one who will sell me, save for some tiny surface mount devices of extremely low capacity.

I just wondered if i was missing something.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla cuts 7% of its workforce, saying there’s a ‘very difficult’ road ahead

KEY POINTS

“Tesla will need to make these cuts while increasing the Model 3 production rate and making many manufacturing engineering improvements in the coming months,” Musk said

This week, the company discontinued the cheapest versions of its Model S sedans and Model X SUVs and Musk said it would also ditch its customer referral program.

Musk said Tesla faces “an extremely difficult challenge” in making its products a competitive alternative to traditional vehicles and energy products.

...

Tesla is cutting its full-time staff headcount by approximately 7 percent, as it ramps up production of its Model 3 sedans, CEO Elon Musk said Friday.

The announcement come on the back of various cost-cutting measures the company has made of late, as it looks to reduce the price of its products and boost margins.

Tesla shares fell almost 8 percent in premarket trade following the news.

In an email to employees, Musk notes that the company faces a “very difficult” road ahead in its long-term goal to sell affordable renewable energy products at scale, noting the company is younger than other players in the industry.

...


Musk said profit in the fourth quarter is likely to come in lower than in the previous quarter, but added that he hopes Tesla will achieve a “tiny profit” in Q4.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-t ... rcent.html

In a company update, Musk said: “While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people. Tesla has only been producing cars for about a decade and we’re up against massive, entrenched competitors.

“The net effect is that Tesla must work much harder than other manufacturers to survive while building affordable, sustainable products.”

- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -elon-musk

Full text of email from tesla.com:

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/tesla- ... edirect=no

[BobbyD]

Currently down 9%.

There's one thing you can't deny about Tesla, it is volatile.

[Howard]

At least Elon Musk is realistic about Tesla’s task ahead. Quoting from his email to employees today he says:

"Sorry for all these numbers, but I want to make sure that you know all the facts and figures and understand that the road ahead is very difficult. This is not new for us – we have always faced significant challenges – but it is the reality we face. There are many companies that can offer a better work-life balance, because they are larger and more mature or in industries that are not so voraciously competitive."

The views of those optimists who forecast that Tesla will quickly crush the opposition aren’t shared by Musk today. He knows Tesla has an uphill struggle to produce cars that will succeed in selling large volumes in world markets. He has a wealthy Californian fan-base who have accounted for around half the sales of Model 3s so far. But conquering more price-sensitive markets further afield will be more difficult.

It looks as though all car manufacturers are going to have a tough time in the short term. Some may suffer significantly but ICE cars still look more profitable over the next two or three years. And if there is a way of making EVs profitably for the mass market, the competitors are working on it just as fast as Tesla.

Today’s profit warning is a sign that demand for expensive Teslas may be slowing. It’s a bold investor who commits large sums to the brand. A billion dollar investment yesterday is worth around 13% less today!

We’ll see if the shares recover, but I have a feeling that Musk knows that the next quarter is going to be tough. And the next three years may be tougher still.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Hi Howard,

I disagree with most of your assessment. Let us look at what Tesla said in these two extracts:

Tesla statement:

As we all experienced first-hand, last year was the most challenging in Tesla’s history. However, thanks to your efforts, 2018 was also the most successful year in Tesla’s history: we delivered almost as many cars as we did in all of 2017 in the last quarter alone and nearly as many cars last year as we did in all the prior years of Tesla’s existence combined! Model 3 also became the best-selling premium vehicle of 2018 in the US. This is truly remarkable and something that few thought possible just a short time ago.

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.

So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Hi Howard,

I disagree with most of your assessment. Let us look at what Tesla said in these two extracts:

Tesla statement:

As we all experienced first-hand, last year was the most challenging in Tesla’s history. However, thanks to your efforts, 2018 was also the most successful year in Tesla’s history: we delivered almost as many cars as we did in all of 2017 in the last quarter alone and nearly as many cars last year as we did in all the prior years of Tesla’s existence combined! Model 3 also became the best-selling premium vehicle of 2018 in the US. This is truly remarkable and something that few thought possible just a short time ago.

However, starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles. Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3. Right now, our most affordable offering is the mid-range (264 mile) Model 3 with premium sound and interior at $44k.

So Tesla are doing what they say and have by far the best cars.

Moreover, is $44k that expensive, its current value in Sterling is £34,250? The VW electric Golf is:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/electric

from £32,730, the smaller version the eup is closed for ordering as they haven’t made enough:

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/up-pa/explore/e-up

As I have typed many times this is all a smokes and mirrors business. All the legacy autos do not want electric cars, they have marketing departments that say how much they are spending on batteries and that they will use solid state batteries… But they can’t make electric cars because they don’t have enough batteries, solid state batteries do not exist and for the more dominant reason that they don’t want to hurt their existing sales.

Brexit is a great blessing for VW who were facing zero emission car requirements and now are saying that with the potential loss of the UK market they need to keep making hydrocarbon motors as their business is in trouble and otherwise they will need to lay of workers.

If you compare VW to Tesla and the emerging Chinese makers you have business that not handicapped by large legacy operations and who are producing 21st century cars, not Frankenstein constructions from butchered 20th century designs. All of these have clean electric cars that are far more sophisticated than anything VW have to offer and they are available to buy now. Tesla also have a portfolio of 21st century vehicles coming through their production process and with solar and storage are all geared towards the low co2 environment the politicians want.

Tesla are getting stronger by the day VW are being managed into a very difficult position and are now, like the rest of the German auto market, fretful of a hard Brexit.

Regards,

I was wondering how you would reform Musk admitting that legacy auto have entrenched advantage when it comes to building cars and that Tesla are far more vulnerable to bankruptcy in to a positive... but what does Elon know?