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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#196051

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2019, 10:12 am

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:The ending of sales of Gasoline and diesel engined cars, currently begin in 11 years, Germany takes a little longer:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/23/sw ... gs-behind/

Hat tip to Musk on Twitter for link.

Whether this ban is all ic engines or just new ones isn't clear. If its all ic engined cars one bought now will have scrap value only in 11 years and decreasing every day.

Imho it will be hard and financially foolish to buy an ic car within 5 years.

This imho is a huge tail wind for battery vehicles that will strengthen to gale force.

Regards,


Ody - this is just a journalist's story - you would call it "clickbait" if it didn't agree with your views!

Perhaps someone with a little more credibility, the Head of the IEA may have a more valid view:

Electric car use may be growing exponentially, but they are doing little to curb rising carbon emissions and oil demand, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
“To say that electric cars are the end of oil is definitely misleading,” economist Fatih Birol told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“This year we expect global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day. The effect of 5 million cars is [to diminish that demand by] 50,000 barrels per day. 50,000 versus 1.3m barrels.”
Last year, the IEA predicted that the number of electric cars globally would grow from 3 million today, to 125 million by 2030. But Birol said the number paled in comparison to the 1 billion cars powered by internal combustion engines.
Besides, he said, it was not cars that were driving oil demand – “full stop”.
“Drivers are trucks, the petrochemical industry, planes. Asia is just starting to fly,” he said, referring to the agency’s 2018 energy outlook report that also cites shipping as a major source of oil demand.
Birol also highlighted the problem of powering electric cars when two thirds of global generation comes from fossil fuels.
“Where does the electricity come from, to say that electric cars are a solution to our climate change problem? It is not,” Birol said.
“Even if there were 300 million [electric cars] with the current power generation system, the impact in terms of CO2 emissions is less than 1% – nothing. If you can’t decarbonise [the power sector], C02 emissions will not be going down. It may be helpful for the local pollution, but for global emissions it is not.”

see: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/ ... ncy-chief/

Are Tesla being overtaken by events? If you are really seriously suggesting they need legislation to help them, then they should be concentrating on Trucks and Planes. These are more likely to be affected by Government controls over the next 20 years.

regards

Howard


The IEA are just lobbying for the hydrocarbon industry, an industry which has so far been encouraged to produce as much carbon dioxide gas as possible with no penalties or sanctions on what is now seen to be damage to the atmosphere.

Sure if one takes the IEA figure as presented the case for electric traction is small, but if you remove a lot of the hydrocarbon vehicles as is now mandated in many countries, UK by 2040, and you build out the infrastructure to use renewable power then everything changes.

Clearly no exisiting industry is going to change if it doesn't have to which is why I expect a raft of new co2 taxes and bans on ic engines from most cities. If that happens it will revolutionise the energy/emission situation.

If you go back to the time of the clean air act there was intense criticism of that, with lobbying of how we needed coal, of how natural gas could never be introduced to replace it etc. But it happened and we nowadays have very few fogs whereas in the 1950's fogs were very common and murderous.

As things now are the replacement cycle for cars is something like 12 years, one can argue about the exact number, but if there is co2 tax legislation etc as I expect it seems likely to me that with about 5 years no one will buy a new hydrocarbon car or truck and the move towards renewable power which is currently about 30% of UK generation will continue to grow with also a huge increase in storage.

I expect that current industry will fight this tooth and claw with intense lobbying and many many articles like the IEA one, but I expect them to lose.

If I am anything like right then investors who hold equity in companies that will provide this new energy/storage environment will do very well.

If battery technology does improve as some lab studies suggest it can, then it becomes feasible to build electric aircraft too, with Boeing and Airbus both having programs to develop this.

The world is changing and the opportunities for business that make this change happen is large.

Regards

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196091

Postby tjh290633 » January 24th, 2019, 11:39 am

odysseus2000 wrote:If you go back to the time of the clean air act there was intense criticism of that, with lobbying of how we needed coal, of how natural gas could never be introduced to replace it etc. But it happened and we nowadays have very few fogs whereas in the 1950's fogs were very common and murderous.

As things now are the replacement cycle for cars is something like 12 years, one can argue about the exact number, but if there is co2 tax legislation etc as I expect it seems likely to me that with about 5 years no one will buy a new hydrocarbon car or truck and the move towards renewable power which is currently about 30% of UK generation will continue to grow with also a huge increase in storage.

The Clean Air Act largely addressed domestic consumption of coal, which was a major contributor to atmospheric pollution. Industrial pollution was more affected by the Large Power Source Directive and its successor Directives.

You may recall the Scrappage Allowance for cars, in 2009, which aimed to get rid of older polluting motor vehicles. Of course it led to more diesel powered cars coming onto the road because they were more attractive at the time.

I think that you are optimistic in your predictions about 5 years ahead. 20 years ahead perhaps, but that is only going to move the pollution to the power stations. Nuclear is largely stalled, and storage capacity cannot cover the effects of anticyclones and darkness completely.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196109

Postby PeterGray » January 24th, 2019, 12:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The ending of sales of Gasoline and diesel engined cars, currently begin in 11 years, Germany takes a little longer:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/23/sw ... gs-behind/

Hat tip to Musk on Twitter for link.

Whether this ban is all ic engines or just new ones isn't clear. If its all ic engined cars one bought now will have scrap value only in 11 years and decreasing every day.

Imho it will be hard and financially foolish to buy an ic car within 5 years.
Regards,


They're talking about a ban on sales (of new cars). So no particular reason why existing IC cars 2nd hand value should drop after that - it might even increase, with petrol heads wanting to snap them up!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196136

Postby BobbyD » January 24th, 2019, 1:24 pm

PeterGray wrote:They're talking about a ban on sales (of new cars). So no particular reason why existing IC cars 2nd hand value should drop after that - it might even increase, with petrol heads wanting to snap them up!


No officer I didn't sell him a car with an internal combustion engine, I sold him a car and an internal combustion engine, and charged him to fit the one in the other.

No officer I didn't sell him an internal combustion engine, although it is true that if you take the two big bits I sold him and bolt them together using the 4 small bits you would have an internal combustion engine...

Ultimately it'll be emissions regs which determine how long petrol lasts.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196291

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2019, 7:49 pm

This is a simple introduction to the race to make solid state batteries, their advantages and lots of general stuff. It is not correct in my view in a few areas but imho it is a good introduction to anyone interested in battery technology and potential new batteries & is worth a watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifLxkO0w6B4

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196323

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2019, 11:25 pm

This is a nice interview of Prof. Goodenough who is credited with inventing the lithium battery & solid state variants with Lithim, Sodium & glass.

He is not a fan of Tesla which will please most here, but his claim that a Tesla battery will be dead in two years is not consistent with practical observation:

https://youtu.be/kR8CESrigEg

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196527

Postby BobbyD » January 25th, 2019, 6:26 pm

SALZGITTER, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will manufacture electric car batteries and charging stations in its home region in Germany, as it prepares to mass produce electric vehicles and overhaul its components division, which makes engines and steering parts.

Volkswagen (VW) said on Friday it would invest 870 million euros ($985 million) by 2020 to developing e-vehicle components, adding the batteries business would manufacture battery cells and packs as well as overseeing recycling of old cells.

The German carmaker, which is headquartered in Wolfsburg, Lower Saxony, also said it would start producing mobile electric car charging stations at its nearby plant in Hannover, which currently makes engines and castings.

VW will bundle cells from electric car batteries into storage powerbanks that can be used to recharge up to 15 electric cars at a time and be transported to locations where power is needed, such as a stadium during a rock concert.

Customers can find the mobile charging stations using an app on their smartphone, it said.


- https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-b ... PI2FA?il=0

It's mentioned elsewhere that VW may use degraded cells from EV's in the powerbanks.

VW - THE E-mobility company...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196538

Postby odysseus2000 » January 25th, 2019, 8:44 pm

BobbyD wrote:
SALZGITTER, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will manufacture electric car batteries and charging stations in its home region in Germany, as it prepares to mass produce electric vehicles and overhaul its components division, which makes engines and steering parts.

Volkswagen (VW) said on Friday it would invest 870 million euros ($985 million) by 2020 to developing e-vehicle components, adding the batteries business would manufacture battery cells and packs as well as overseeing recycling of old cells.

The German carmaker, which is headquartered in Wolfsburg, Lower Saxony, also said it would start producing mobile electric car charging stations at its nearby plant in Hannover, which currently makes engines and castings.

VW will bundle cells from electric car batteries into storage powerbanks that can be used to recharge up to 15 electric cars at a time and be transported to locations where power is needed, such as a stadium during a rock concert.

Customers can find the mobile charging stations using an app on their smartphone, it said.


- https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-b ... PI2FA?il=0

It's mentioned elsewhere that VW may use degraded cells from EV's in the powerbanks.

VW - THE E-mobility company...


Link didn't have anything about VW as far as I could tell.

Are VW now dropping their solid state battery ideas and going for lithium ion?

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196548

Postby BobbyD » January 25th, 2019, 9:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
SALZGITTER, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will manufacture electric car batteries and charging stations in its home region in Germany, as it prepares to mass produce electric vehicles and overhaul its components division, which makes engines and steering parts.

Volkswagen (VW) said on Friday it would invest 870 million euros ($985 million) by 2020 to developing e-vehicle components, adding the batteries business would manufacture battery cells and packs as well as overseeing recycling of old cells.

The German carmaker, which is headquartered in Wolfsburg, Lower Saxony, also said it would start producing mobile electric car charging stations at its nearby plant in Hannover, which currently makes engines and castings.

VW will bundle cells from electric car batteries into storage powerbanks that can be used to recharge up to 15 electric cars at a time and be transported to locations where power is needed, such as a stadium during a rock concert.

Customers can find the mobile charging stations using an app on their smartphone, it said.


- https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-b ... PI2FA?il=0

It's mentioned elsewhere that VW may use degraded cells from EV's in the powerbanks.

VW - THE E-mobility company...


Link didn't have anything about VW as far as I could tell.


https://af.reuters.com/article/commodit ... FL8N1ZP203

...assuming they don't make minor changes to the formatting and change the url again.

Otherwise just google Volkswagen and click on news...

https://www.engadget.com/2019/01/25/vol ... batteries/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196563

Postby odysseus2000 » January 25th, 2019, 10:36 pm

Hi BobbyD

Thanks for the links to VW.

I am still not sure what kind of batteries VW intend to make, this seems to be missing from the news announcements.

There is also the issue of charging currents with some authorities saying that the proposed VW operating charge rates would cause failure of lithium ion cells due to the formation of metallic structures that would penetrate the plastic barrier between the graphite and the cobalt or what ever metal they plan to use. These authorities say that the charge rates need to be lower if reasonable battery life is to be achieved.

Dunno, it is all rather difficult and confusing and I get the sense that all the makers are being as ambiguous and bland as possible as they have not internally so far decided on what types of battery they intend to produce.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#196576

Postby Howard » January 25th, 2019, 11:07 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:@PeterGray, @Howard,

esp for Howard. I am not ignoring S&M at all. But I regard it as a done deal at the present time. Tesla have 12-24 months worth of orders in the USA alone at present. Once through EU homologation they could probably set up a EU line just on the back of demand in Norway. Yes VW may use the IDneo Golf EV replacement to try to make a cheaper vehicle, without the bells & whilstles, but that would be backing the same strategy that has caused the incumbents to repeatedly fail in this space. BECAUSE the EV is a high-capex purchase, the marginal cost of the bells and whilstles is trivial compared with the mrginal VALUE (as perceived by customer). Therefore at present the better strategy is to go top down. When the equation switches andf the EV reaches capex parity with ICE, then ICE is simply dead, and by then Tesla (with its insourced autonomy) can simply include the autonomy etc for trivial amounts as it makes mfg cheaper.


regards, dspp


dspp

I hope you don't mind my going back to a reply of yours in November. It was to a post of mine where I (perhaps presumptuously) was reminding the engineers who were posting that selling cars required more than just technology and stressing the importance of understanding the customer and getting the marketing right.

My thesis was, and is, that the wealthy early adopters in California are not representative of the likely purchasers of electric cars elsewhere in the USA and especially in China and Europe. And that Tesla will have an uphill task selling against their established European and Japanese competitors and the new Chinese manufacturers.

Your forecast a month ago that Tesla have 12-24 months of orders is looking optimistic. If it is correct, why are they offering 16 day delivery quotes to potential customers for customised cars which haven't yet been produced? Surely they aren't favouring them over customers who paid deposits a year or two ago and still haven't got their cars. Are Tesla running out of customers now they have ramped up production? I know the US government incentive runs out at the end of December, but surely Tesla aren't double-crossing patient and loyal deposit payers to get new customers - that would be a risky strategy.


Also a key question is being asked by car reviewers. Do Teslas look a bit old-fashioned compared with the stylish electric models being launched by Audi for example? Style is so important when you are selling cars for $40-$100,000.

As an investor, I would be wary of backing a company which still has so much to prove.

The source for the concern about short deliveries is below. No hard facts yet, but the logic is persuasive!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422868 ... t-expiring

regards

Howard


dspp and Ody

We are getting very close to Tesla's report on Q4 2018 sales and I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that, whilst they pulled out all the stops to make Q4 the best quarter ever, there are going to be signs that demand from customers in the USA is dropping and actual sales in Q1 are likely to be disappointing.

The sudden move to start shipping Model 3s to Europe and beyond is a sign that their home market sales may be plateauing. I know I'm repeating myself but I'm not sure that European customers will be as keen on the model 3 as the Tesla fans hope. I fully accept that there is no strong evidence for this yet, but I don't think that the 3 will fit the European motorist culture. The sales and marketing for Tesla strikes me as very "Californian trendy" and I'd be surprised if it is successful in generating large initial sales in markets like France, Germany and the UK. We will have to see what the 3 selling prices are, but if they cost more than £40,000 or the equivalent, sales in 2019 may not be high. Motorists here may still consider EVs to be second cars and at this price level they are only going to appeal to the very affluent.

I know nothing about the Chinese market, but it would surprise me if the issues were not similar there.

This is a contrarian view, and forgive me, but there is a danger on this board in concentrating too much on engineering issues and not enough on marketing.

If Tesla can succeed in selling more than 7,000 cars a week throughout 2019 they will have pulled off a brilliant coup. And if they can do it profitably it will be an amazing feat.

Next week will be a good indicator, but Q1 actual sales are the key issue. No doubt Elon Musk will have something to say about these. But will he deliver?

Yours expectantly

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196590

Postby dspp » January 26th, 2019, 9:08 am

Howard,

I watch with as much interest as you, and pick out much the same items.

For sure at some point Tesla will take a hit because of inventory-in-transit, aka "pipeline stuffing" that will necessarily reduce sales in that quarter. If I am picking up the tidbits correctly they seem to be sending ships of about 3,000 cars out each week, and for every two to Europe there is one to China. Assume six weeks in transit (including park/load/sail/unload/park) that would be about 18,000 sales lost in that quarter vs the quarters either side (i.e. the distribute/deliver leg is a constant in each continent). Well 18,000 cars would make quite a dent in a quarter's revenue numbers, so that will be interesting.

For China I think the sedan thing is fine, given my observation of sedan & SUV being common purchase styles over there. But for Europe I think they've not understood the buyer gestalt, i.e. we buy hatchbacks and estates for reasons the Americans just don't even begin to think about. So the lack of these two body styles will impair marketability in Europe, restricting it to a particular segment which is a real shame. Furthermore there are some design issues that - however trivial - will really piss off Europeans and get the mick taken out of Tesla. I'm especially thinking of the rainwater dripping into the 3's boot/trunk when you open the boot. So, until either the Y appears ('cause Europeans also buy SUVs), or the 3 gets an estate and/or hatch version (and I'd say estate would be better) then I think they will not find it as easy in Europe as they are expecting, and so will mine their enthusiast seam out faster than they expect.

As you know there is a slug of bonds to be repaid pretty soon, and it will be a good indicator as to whether that is cash or shares.

This year is all about sustained operational delivery for Tesla, with the Y and the other factories moving along in the background. I think Solar City is a disaster that never should have been taken on (and I thought that when it was first set up, many many years ago, and every year in between). Storage I think will be very important, but it will be another few years until it becomes material.

There are macro factors in play as well. We are all watching the stats for the economies nervously, aren't we ? I am. A synchronised downturn would sink a lot of boats and Tesla is just one boat. Mind you legacy auto is just as exposed to a downturn.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196630

Postby odysseus2000 » January 26th, 2019, 11:27 am

Looking at the body styles common in the UK, the model 3 imho fits around the 4 door coupe range:

https://www.carwow.co.uk/guides/choosin ... guide-0631

which based on my observation of cars I see has a reasonable following among well paid professionals & as Tesla model 3 are relatively expensive as are 4 door coupes, I believe there is a market here for the model 3 from the buyers who like this body style.

Tesla still have the new kid on the block feel & have more gadgets & such than competitors & are, as I understand things, exempt from congestion charges and hence have imho a chance to do quite well.

I imagine, but I am not sure, that many of these 4 door coupe motors are company cars so the reaction of the corporate buyer will be an important consideration. Tesla have very good safety, very good performance, emission free, auto pilot, low running costs compared to ic engines etc as selling points and I suspect there will be initial try me type sales & then it will come down to what the drivers feed back & how servicing of damage etc is handled by Tesla.

Personally I expect the model 3 to sell well among knowledgeable fleet buyers and this will then spread into private buyers as the fleet cars are turned over for second owners etc.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#196952

Postby Howard » January 28th, 2019, 12:11 am

dspp and Ody

Hat tip to you dspp - I couldn't resist looking up "Tesla 3 in the rain".

So has Tesla got engineering issues as well as marketing concerns?

The problems exposed in videos by customers whose cars are taking in water both in the boot and off the roof into the car don't bode well for sales in wetter European climes.

See this video from 2 mins 50 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... vmmR3P58gs as an example of a number of videos appearing recently.

Ody, As you have written above, the fleet market could be an important entry factor for the model 3 if it proves to have a good range and very low running costs. But rain running down executives' sleeves as they get into the car in a typical European winter may be a negative sales factor.

Is the water cascading into the boot and from the roof into the car a minor problem easily changed by re-engineering the body shell for wetter climates?

We should soon soon if it is a problem for owners if we have a typical wet summer!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#196953

Postby BobbyD » January 28th, 2019, 1:53 am

Howard wrote:Ody, As you have written above, the fleet market could be an important entry factor for the model 3 if it proves to have a good range and very low running costs. But rain running down executives' sleeves as they get into the car in a typical European winter may be a negative sales factor.

Is the water cascading into the boot and from the roof into the car a minor problem easily changed by re-engineering the body shell for wetter climates?


It's a feature. You hang a Tesla branded soap on a rope from the rear view and your time poor exec can grab a shower on the way to work. Drainage holes in the floor might cause battery issues though.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197000

Postby Howard » January 28th, 2019, 11:00 am

I had a look at our two German cars. They both have a slight ridge at the edge of the roof which stops all but very heavy rain running over the side of the roof. Looking at videos of the Tesla, the problem appears to be the flush fit of the glass roof which allows the rain to run off sideways.

Obviously the answer is to always keep the window closed in the rain. But it could be annoying if every time the door is opened in the wet there is a deluge of water onto the seat.

The boot issue looks more serious. I've never owned a car which let volumes of water run in off the back window. Is this a car designed for sunshine only?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197006

Postby dspp » January 28th, 2019, 11:14 am

Yes it does seem to have a bit of Californian optimism about the design :)

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197014

Postby BobbyD » January 28th, 2019, 11:27 am

Howard wrote:The boot issue looks more serious. I've never owned a car which let volumes of water run in off the back window. Is this a car designed for sunshine only?

regards

Howard


California accounts for almost half of all Tesla Model 3 sales
Electric carmaker may be one of U.S.' most valuable, but most of its vehicles are bought in its home state


- https://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news ... el-3-sales

I'm sure it'll work well in Cardiff though...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197023

Postby odysseus2000 » January 28th, 2019, 11:43 am

Howard wrote:dspp and Ody

Hat tip to you dspp - I couldn't resist looking up "Tesla 3 in the rain".

So has Tesla got engineering issues as well as marketing concerns?

The problems exposed in videos by customers whose cars are taking in water both in the boot and off the roof into the car don't bode well for sales in wetter European climes.

See this video from 2 mins 50 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... vmmR3P58gs as an example of a number of videos appearing recently.

Ody, As you have written above, the fleet market could be an important entry factor for the model 3 if it proves to have a good range and very low running costs. But rain running down executives' sleeves as they get into the car in a typical European winter may be a negative sales factor.

Is the water cascading into the boot and from the roof into the car a minor problem easily changed by re-engineering the body shell for wetter climates?

We should soon soon if it is a problem for owners if we have a typical wet summer!

regards

Howard


Ha ha, how many times have I been bitten by things that I didn't worry about whilst all the stuff I did worry about was fine.

Not sure how one could address the issues he raised as one does need to open doors & boots in the rain, nor how rain intense the issues are.

Really would need to see the issue in more typical normal rain & compare to other motors. I have similar issues with my 19 year old Mercedes in heavy rain, but mostly it's not a problem. Condensation from the sun roof is another issue in my Mercedes after frost.

So I would file this as more click bait unless there are more detailed tests & comparisons. Had he not spent an age showing how the rain comes through open windows I would have more respected his analysis.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#197026

Postby BobbyD » January 28th, 2019, 11:51 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Really would need to see the issue in more typical normal rain & compare to other motors. I have similar issues with my 19 year old Mercedes in heavy rain, but mostly it's not a problem. Condensation from the sun roof is another issue in my Mercedes after frost.


I'm not entirely sure your tolerance of faults in your 19 year old Mercedes is going to be exactly mirrored by people who've just spent quite a few tens of thousands of pounds on a brand new status vehicle.

odysseus2000 wrote:So I would file this as more click bait unless there are more detailed tests & comparisons. Had he not spent an age showing how the rain comes through open windows I would have more respected his analysis.


You continue to surprise me in your equal handed and unbiased approach to these issues.


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