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HYP now in positive territory
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Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
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- Lemon Slice
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HYP now in positive territory
Well, just ran HYPTUSS and guess what, the capital value of my HYP is in positive territory for the first time since I started the PF in August last year.
Now I realise that it is early days but it is so nice not to see a sea of red!
Now I realise that it is early days but it is so nice not to see a sea of red!
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- The full Lemon
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
EssDeeAitch wrote:Well, just ran HYPTUSS and guess what, the capital value of my HYP is in positive territory for the first time since I started the PF in August last year.
Now I realise that it is early days but it is so nice not to see a sea of red!
Yes, likewise for me too. Just remember to remain focussed on what HYP is really about, that is, the income, although a rise in capital value is nice too.
Ian.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
From your comments EssDeeAitch I think you are still a builder of your HYP as am I. Why do you want to spend more for the same income? As Ian said don't lose track of the income; focusing on the capital, especially over months is a sure way to frustration with stock market investing. We all know the maxim that the value of your investment can fall as well as rise and generally will.
6 months into a portfolio and spread, stamp duty and dealing fees will default to red type on new buys and eyeballing the FTSE100 is down about 7% over that period so nothing to worry about. With only 6months history you'll have not established a healthy income flow and that's where the fun lies. Seeing those dollops of money turn up is the objective and where I get the pleasure, the capital values can wavier about but income flow will hopefully grow and grow.
6 months into a portfolio and spread, stamp duty and dealing fees will default to red type on new buys and eyeballing the FTSE100 is down about 7% over that period so nothing to worry about. With only 6months history you'll have not established a healthy income flow and that's where the fun lies. Seeing those dollops of money turn up is the objective and where I get the pleasure, the capital values can wavier about but income flow will hopefully grow and grow.
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- The full Lemon
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
I agree with kempiejon's post. I also maintain an excel sheet to keep a record of my dividends when received. I maintain a simple bar chart, which over the years I've been HYPing, it is good to see that bar chart rising nicely over time. I do not spend my dividends currently, but reinvest the amassed divis monthly wherever I choose.
Ian.
Ian.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
When you say HYP now in positive territory didn't you really mean HYP has produced more income this year than last ?
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
moorfield wrote:When you say HYP now in positive territory didn't you really mean HYP has produced more income this year than last ?
Quite right
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
To be fair to the OP, any review of the HYP boards will notice wailing and gnashing of teeth when HYP share prices fall, and celebrations when capital values rise. It's human nature to like the increase in value, and to be worried by any decreases.
However, I agree with the sentiment that for a HYPer starting out, a fall in values is a good thing, increasing purchasing power at a time when the HYP is being built. As time passes, one wants to see dividends at least keeping pace with inflation, if not outpacing them a little, which becomes harder to do if share prices remain depressed, so over time, an increasing share price (at portfolio level) becomes important in maintaining the objectives.
As one approaches or enters the decumulation phase, ideally the underlying share prices of the portfolio rocket skywards, providing a warm glow of capital success, as well as the primary objective of the dividend stream. Failing that, a steady increase in dividends, allowing one to ignore capital gyrations, there being no plan to realise any capital gains (or losses).
For myself, now in the decumulation phase (but still reinvesting some of the dividends) I find a monthly update of the rolling annual dividend forecast of my portfolio has a much bigger impact on my feelings about the success of the strategy than whether the individual shares show green or red at the broker.
When it comes to the sharp end, it really is all about the dividend stream...
VRD
However, I agree with the sentiment that for a HYPer starting out, a fall in values is a good thing, increasing purchasing power at a time when the HYP is being built. As time passes, one wants to see dividends at least keeping pace with inflation, if not outpacing them a little, which becomes harder to do if share prices remain depressed, so over time, an increasing share price (at portfolio level) becomes important in maintaining the objectives.
As one approaches or enters the decumulation phase, ideally the underlying share prices of the portfolio rocket skywards, providing a warm glow of capital success, as well as the primary objective of the dividend stream. Failing that, a steady increase in dividends, allowing one to ignore capital gyrations, there being no plan to realise any capital gains (or losses).
For myself, now in the decumulation phase (but still reinvesting some of the dividends) I find a monthly update of the rolling annual dividend forecast of my portfolio has a much bigger impact on my feelings about the success of the strategy than whether the individual shares show green or red at the broker.
When it comes to the sharp end, it really is all about the dividend stream...
VRD
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- The full Lemon
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
This is one way I get encouragement!
This shows my increasing income from HYP+funds from 2010. This is a moving 5-month average chart in real pounds, not unitised as I would normally show. This means, of course, that we have combination of increasing income per unit + income from whatever new capital has been input too.
Although I've cut out the left hand scale, the increase is broadly 5:1 across the years. Note the saw-tooth pattern, and also that it appears to have greater amplitude now. The first prominent low is 75% of the previous high, whereas the 2018 low is only 60% of the previous high.
Arb.
This shows my increasing income from HYP+funds from 2010. This is a moving 5-month average chart in real pounds, not unitised as I would normally show. This means, of course, that we have combination of increasing income per unit + income from whatever new capital has been input too.
Although I've cut out the left hand scale, the increase is broadly 5:1 across the years. Note the saw-tooth pattern, and also that it appears to have greater amplitude now. The first prominent low is 75% of the previous high, whereas the 2018 low is only 60% of the previous high.
Arb.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
Arborbridge wrote:This is one way I get encouragement!
This shows my increasing income from HYP+funds from 2010. This is a moving 5-month average chart in real pounds, not unitised as I would normally show. This means, of course, that we have combination of increasing income per unit + income from whatever new capital has been input too.
Although I've cut out the left hand scale, the increase is broadly 5:1 across the years. Note the saw-tooth pattern, and also that it appears to have greater amplitude now. The first prominent low is 75% of the previous high, whereas the 2018 low is only 60% of the previous high.
Arb.
And presumably the saw tooth pattern is due to taking a 5 month rolling average, and reflects the uneven delivery of monthly dividends over a year?
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- The full Lemon
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
funduffer wrote:
And presumably the saw tooth pattern is due to taking a 5 month rolling average, and reflects the uneven delivery of monthly dividends over a year?
I'm sure the 5 month rolling average does generate that type of result, but I do not believe it is the sole reason. Whatever period one uses, something of the like occurs. The peaks and troughs are not exaclty 5-months, notice.
Why I chose 5-months originally, I cannot remember! Maybe an attempt to stop it resonating with quarterly cycles??
I have also played around with weighting the earlier months so they are less significant compared with recent ones. but that seemed too indulgent for what was intended as a simple rain check on rising income.
Arb.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: HYP now in positive territory
Thanks Arb.
I use a 12 month rolling average, and you are quite right, I don't get a very smooth line either. I chose 12 months to eliminate the uneven distribution of dividends through the year. All companies work on an annual cycle, but they have been known to fiddle about with their dividend dates! That, together with cuts, purchases and sales all cause variations of course. Nothing like a smooth geometric progression at ~5% a year or so!
I will publish some day.
Regards
FD
I use a 12 month rolling average, and you are quite right, I don't get a very smooth line either. I chose 12 months to eliminate the uneven distribution of dividends through the year. All companies work on an annual cycle, but they have been known to fiddle about with their dividend dates! That, together with cuts, purchases and sales all cause variations of course. Nothing like a smooth geometric progression at ~5% a year or so!
I will publish some day.
Regards
FD
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