odysseus2000 wrote:Very busy at the moment, so just a few points:
By 21st century I mean a car that could not have existed in the 20th century. This as the US supreme court as noted with regard to pornography is difficult to define but one knows it when one see it and as such there has to be some subjectivity built into it. In my case I would think self driving via neural net with just optical sensors was not something possible in the 20th century, nor was long distance electric travel as there were few charging points, as was over the air updates,…
These are demonstrably 20th century techs. Having a more developed infrastructure may allow them to be more widely utilised, but it doesn't mean they couldn't have been achieved last century. Besides back at the other end of the 20th century one didn't recharge one's battery, one swapped it for a full one.
odysseus2000 wrote:Cars are about emotion, about how they look, sound and go as a first attractor. If you build an ugly car (e.g. Land Rover Discovery imho, chicken shed on wheels) then you will sell some, especially to folk comforted by numbers, but you will not do as well as if you make something beautiful. The latest US entrant covered in this thread looked imho ugly.
Cars are about money.
It's a prototype of a vehicle with no existing EV competition, and if it's got the likes of GM and Amazon interested it's probably already done it's job.
If it's really ugly then I'm sure they'll give it a coat of lipstick before they try and sell it. Who cares what the prototype looks like?
odysseus2000 wrote: Although a lot of the media are making lots of noise about no sales of Model 3 in Europe, I believe it is extremely unlikely that the Model 3 will not sell here. If the model S and X had flopped, or if there was serious competition I might be concerned, but I would be extremely surprised if the Model 3 does not sell in large volume in Europe and China. Whether you like or loathe Musk he has a near cult following by enough people and that imho almost guarantees that the Model 3 will sell well. Yes, there will be delays, complaints and all manner of negative media, but I expect this, just as i expect it with every iPhone and yet iPhones sell.
Speculation based on the not particularly solid foundations of Musks celebrity and the continuing absence of any serious competition... I asked further up the thread, and I would still be genuinely interested to know if anybody has a decent theory why Teslas sell so badly outside California? It seems to me that if you can't explain why the other 49 states aren't getting buzzed with Musk speculation as to his performance in two overseas territories might be lacking a few important variables.
odysseus2000 wrote: I continue to believe that many of the points made in the cleantechnica article are correct and I still believe that the German auto industry has been far too complacent about electric and remains so even now.
The word belief pops up awfully frequently in your writings, without much attempt to justify it.
odysseus2000 wrote: You may find all my comments flippant, lacking rigours and supporting evidence. What I believe I have learned from investing is that simplification and simple arguments are far more useful than complicated advanced ones in terms of understanding if a business is going to do well, moreover I believe that there are very few business that will do very well and the ones that are successful will continue to be successful and by owning them you will do well. This of course makes no sense to anyone trained in engineering and science or modern portfolio management, but it is what the big fish do, see e.g.
I don't think you are flippant, I do think your analysis is severely one eyed, and lacking in rigour. You are pulling for a team, and your natural reaction is to defend that team, often before you have even thought through the implications of the argument and you find yourself making the opposite argument to the one you were arguing the week before which doesn't help your support of the cause. Even if Musk is the next technological impresario setting the stage for the new electric revolution he is going to make mistakes, looking at Tesla's actions in the round doesn't require you quit the church but the choir is a dangerous place for somebody who claims to be a knowledgeable investor to sit.
As for simplification, it's great except for when it isn't. Simplifying by removing unnecessary processes is great. Simplifying by randomly taking out every tenth part to make it easier to explain, not so much. Ever watch a documentary about a subject you know inside out? Once they'd finished 'simplifying' it to provide a coherent story which fitted the 25 minute timeslot and would be accessible to the general public how much of what was left was meaningful, or true?
odysseus2000 wrote:For now I believe that Tesla will do very well going forward, whereas I believe that German auto is in a lot of trouble for many of the reasons noted in the cleantechnica article.
I would, and have above, argued that the article is badly written and largely irrelevant junk. The biggest problem with the article is that it doesn't give many reasons to support its hypothesis, so I'm unsure how you can share them. If it said the opposite you'd describe it as clickbait.
Now I'd love to hear a convincing argument as to why German auto is doomed if one exists, it would allow me to pull my money now and cash out with a decent profit ahead of the fall, and it's not like these are low risk times for the industry, but as things stand I've yet to encounter one and I'm more inclined to a positive outlook.
