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Brexit Solution!

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Sundance13
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Brexit Solution!

#201300

Postby Sundance13 » February 14th, 2019, 12:00 pm

Caveat - The chances of May adopting this approach are low.

Here’s my suggestion for a solution to Mrs Mays Brexit problem.

What May ‘should’ do (but probably won’t), is propose a General Election at end of June / early July, to effectively buy, Labour support for her deal, the Political Declaration after all is open ended.

She promises her own party that having delivered Brexit on time, she will immediately resign, allowing 4-6 weeks for a new leader to be elected and fight the GE 6 weeks or so after this. Yes they’ll have to swallow the backstop, but the new leader (likely an ERG approved candidate) would then have free rein to drive forward the technological solutions during the future relationship phase. Plenty of time surely given their confidence in these solutions.

May stays till March 29th, calls a GE for end of June or 1st week in July, then stands down to allow a new leader to be selected. Or she could do this following an approved meaningful vote on the deal, to buy a bit extra time.

The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Whoever wins then has a clear mandate on the future relationship, be it a loose one (if Tories win) or a closer one if Labour win.

We could even ‘possibly’ extract an agreement from the EU (given we’ll be in transition), that we would be allowed back into the EU on current terms & conditions if a new referendum confirms this to be the will of the people. This would give the likes of the Liberals an opportunity to campaign on the pledge of rejoining via a new ref.

So something for everybody and May at least gets to say she technically delivered Brexit before she resigns.

Thoughts?

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201309

Postby ursaminortaur » February 14th, 2019, 12:17 pm

Sundance13 wrote:Caveat - The chances of May adopting this approach are low.

Here’s my suggestion for a solution to Mrs Mays Brexit problem.

What May ‘should’ do (but probably won’t), is propose a General Election at end of June / early July, to effectively buy, Labour support for her deal, the Political Declaration after all is open ended.

She promises her own party that having delivered Brexit on time, she will immediately resign, allowing 4-6 weeks for a new leader to be elected and fight the GE 6 weeks or so after this. Yes they’ll have to swallow the backstop, but the new leader (likely an ERG approved candidate) would then have free rein to drive forward the technological solutions during the future relationship phase. Plenty of time surely given their confidence in these solutions.

May stays till March 29th, calls a GE for end of June or 1st week in July, then stands down to allow a new leader to be selected. Or she could do this following an approved meaningful vote on the deal, to buy a bit extra time.

The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Whoever wins then has a clear mandate on the future relationship, be it a loose one (if Tories win) or a closer one if Labour win.

We could even ‘possibly’ extract an agreement from the EU (given we’ll be in transition), that we would be allowed back into the EU on current terms & conditions if a new referendum confirms this to be the will of the people. This would give the likes of the Liberals an opportunity to campaign on the pledge of rejoining via a new ref.

So something for everybody and May at least gets to say she technically delivered Brexit before she resigns.

Thoughts?


The fixed term parliament act means that although she could propose it she would have to win a vote with the support of two-thirds of MPs to get it through. The ERG would be likely to oppose it because after 29th March they would be stuck with the backstop even if one of their own were then to become leader.
Labour would be in a similar position of despite previously voting against May's deal accepting it and then hoping to win the following General Election. Corbyn wants a General election but I suspect he would vote against it because of that - if possible, and I'm not sure whether or not it is possible, Labour would probably table an amendment to the vote calling for a General election which would force May to extend article 50 for the General election. This would give Labour both the General election which they want and maximum flexibility if they won that election allowing them to pursue their idea of a permanent customs union with the EU.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201319

Postby dionaeamuscipula » February 14th, 2019, 12:37 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Thoughts?


I am closer to Labour on Europe than I am to the Conservatives, but quite vehemently against Corbynite Labour on pretty much everything else.

My sitting Labour MP is pro Remain in a pro Remain constituency, and voted for Andy Burnham in the last leadership contest. In the last election the sitting MP won by a landslide, although the constituency had a non-Labour MP as recently as 2015.

If there was an election tomorrow I really wouldn't know who to vote for, if I thought that a Corbyn government might be a result of a vote for the sitting MP. Certainly the choice is much more nuanced than you suggest.

DM

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201342

Postby Wizard » February 14th, 2019, 1:08 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:
The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Thoughts?


I am closer to Labour on Europe than I am to the Conservatives, but quite vehemently against Corbynite Labour on pretty much everything else.

My sitting Labour MP is pro Remain in a pro Remain constituency, and voted for Andy Burnham in the last leadership contest. In the last election the sitting MP won by a landslide, although the constituency had a non-Labour MP as recently as 2015.

If there was an election tomorrow I really wouldn't know who to vote for, if I thought that a Corbyn government might be a result of a vote for the sitting MP. Certainly the choice is much more nuanced than you suggest.

DM

Exactly, a General Election will (and should) be about a lot more than just Brexit. It is why, even as somebody that voted leave in 2016, I find the use of 80%+ voting for parties with a manifesto claim to see through Brexit as a ludicrous attempt to justify anything.

Sundance13
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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201348

Postby Sundance13 » February 14th, 2019, 1:36 pm

Wizard wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:
The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Thoughts?


I am closer to Labour on Europe than I am to the Conservatives, but quite vehemently against Corbynite Labour on pretty much everything else.

My sitting Labour MP is pro Remain in a pro Remain constituency, and voted for Andy Burnham in the last leadership contest. In the last election the sitting MP won by a landslide, although the constituency had a non-Labour MP as recently as 2015.

If there was an election tomorrow I really wouldn't know who to vote for, if I thought that a Corbyn government might be a result of a vote for the sitting MP. Certainly the choice is much more nuanced than you suggest.

DM

Exactly, a General Election will (and should) be about a lot more than just Brexit. It is why, even as somebody that voted leave in 2016, I find the use of 80%+ voting for parties with a manifesto claim to see through Brexit as a ludicrous attempt to justify anything.



Well my suggestion of a GE, was mainly to try & get the Labour front bench on board with supporting the WA and getting the bill passed. May will need cross party support if she adopts this approach as it’s likely some/most of her own party won’t support it.

IMO a mandate should be sought for the future relationship after we’ve left, you could I guess offer a new referendum on this after we’ve left, Canada v Norway perhaps, but that would be dictated by the parties manifestoes.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201349

Postby Sundance13 » February 14th, 2019, 1:41 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Caveat - The chances of May adopting this approach are low.

Here’s my suggestion for a solution to Mrs Mays Brexit problem.

What May ‘should’ do (but probably won’t), is propose a General Election at end of June / early July, to effectively buy, Labour support for her deal, the Political Declaration after all is open ended.

She promises her own party that having delivered Brexit on time, she will immediately resign, allowing 4-6 weeks for a new leader to be elected and fight the GE 6 weeks or so after this. Yes they’ll have to swallow the backstop, but the new leader (likely an ERG approved candidate) would then have free rein to drive forward the technological solutions during the future relationship phase. Plenty of time surely given their confidence in these solutions.

May stays till March 29th, calls a GE for end of June or 1st week in July, then stands down to allow a new leader to be selected. Or she could do this following an approved meaningful vote on the deal, to buy a bit extra time.

The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Whoever wins then has a clear mandate on the future relationship, be it a loose one (if Tories win) or a closer one if Labour win.

We could even ‘possibly’ extract an agreement from the EU (given we’ll be in transition), that we would be allowed back into the EU on current terms & conditions if a new referendum confirms this to be the will of the people. This would give the likes of the Liberals an opportunity to campaign on the pledge of rejoining via a new ref.

So something for everybody and May at least gets to say she technically delivered Brexit before she resigns.

Thoughts?


The fixed term parliament act means that although she could propose it she would have to win a vote with the support of two-thirds of MPs to get it through. The ERG would be likely to oppose it because after 29th March they would be stuck with the backstop even if one of their own were then to become leader.
Labour would be in a similar position of despite previously voting against May's deal accepting it and then hoping to win the following General Election. Corbyn wants a General election but I suspect he would vote against it because of that - if possible, and I'm not sure whether or not it is possible, Labour would probably table an amendment to the vote calling for a General election which would force May to extend article 50 for the General election. This would give Labour both the General election which they want and maximum flexibility if they won that election allowing them to pursue their idea of a permanent customs union with the EU.



It would be difficult for sure, I’m working on the basis half the Conservative party would likely reject the idea, she could whip the 100 odd ministers to support + the 20 odd wanting a compromise.

Not sure I get your point on Labour? If they win they’re free to pursue a perm CU, if they lose they’ll be in the same position they are now, so not sure they’ve anything to lose by supporting the idea?

Does that get the 2/3 support needed? Think a lot depends on whether the EU would allow us back in during transition on existing terms, that would mean we’d likely get Remain support, but it could alienate more Tory MPs, who’d likely label it a trap. Would be tight.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201351

Postby dionaeamuscipula » February 14th, 2019, 1:54 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
Does that get the 2/3 support needed? Think a lot depends on whether the EU would allow us back in during transition on existing terms, that would mean we’d likely get Remain support, but it could alienate more Tory MPs, who’d likely label it a trap. Would be tight.


I think it highly unlikely that we would be allowed back in on the existing terms. For one, you can foresee a situation where we are let back in then in two years time there is a further referendum, leave wins, and the whole cycle starts again. It is inherently unstable unless there were to be a very significant referendum vote in favour of remain such that the question would be answered for generations. (For the avoidance of doubt, I don't agree with referenda as a way of guiding or setting government policy, but that particular Pandora's Box has been well and truly opened in this context). For another, we would be a third country and why should we be treated any differently from any other third country (Turkey for example...). For a third, there is the matter of the upcoming elections and how you would deal with a reentry mid way through a parliamentary term.

I would expect in the unlikely event of more or less immediate re entry, that we would be required to go the whole hog: revocation of the rebate, entry to the euro and Shengen. All things I would personally support but understand that this is very much a minority view both here and in the country as a whole.

DM

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201355

Postby Alaric » February 14th, 2019, 2:04 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote: All things I would personally support but understand that this is very much a minority view both here and in the country as a whole.


The Government would have been better informed as to what the country wanted had there been some form of four way vote.

Options being
completely out (WTO etc.)
partly remaining (continued EEA and single market membership)
as we were retaining currency independence and partial border independence
"ever closer union", adopting Euro and Schengen.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201375

Postby ursaminortaur » February 14th, 2019, 4:02 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Caveat - The chances of May adopting this approach are low.

Here’s my suggestion for a solution to Mrs Mays Brexit problem.

What May ‘should’ do (but probably won’t), is propose a General Election at end of June / early July, to effectively buy, Labour support for her deal, the Political Declaration after all is open ended.

She promises her own party that having delivered Brexit on time, she will immediately resign, allowing 4-6 weeks for a new leader to be elected and fight the GE 6 weeks or so after this. Yes they’ll have to swallow the backstop, but the new leader (likely an ERG approved candidate) would then have free rein to drive forward the technological solutions during the future relationship phase. Plenty of time surely given their confidence in these solutions.

May stays till March 29th, calls a GE for end of June or 1st week in July, then stands down to allow a new leader to be selected. Or she could do this following an approved meaningful vote on the deal, to buy a bit extra time.

The General Election will then be a battle between each parties view on the future relationship, which voters can then get to decide on.

Whoever wins then has a clear mandate on the future relationship, be it a loose one (if Tories win) or a closer one if Labour win.

We could even ‘possibly’ extract an agreement from the EU (given we’ll be in transition), that we would be allowed back into the EU on current terms & conditions if a new referendum confirms this to be the will of the people. This would give the likes of the Liberals an opportunity to campaign on the pledge of rejoining via a new ref.

So something for everybody and May at least gets to say she technically delivered Brexit before she resigns.

Thoughts?


The fixed term parliament act means that although she could propose it she would have to win a vote with the support of two-thirds of MPs to get it through. The ERG would be likely to oppose it because after 29th March they would be stuck with the backstop even if one of their own were then to become leader.
Labour would be in a similar position of despite previously voting against May's deal accepting it and then hoping to win the following General Election. Corbyn wants a General election but I suspect he would vote against it because of that - if possible, and I'm not sure whether or not it is possible, Labour would probably table an amendment to the vote calling for a General election which would force May to extend article 50 for the General election. This would give Labour both the General election which they want and maximum flexibility if they won that election allowing them to pursue their idea of a permanent customs union with the EU.



It would be difficult for sure, I’m working on the basis half the Conservative party would likely reject the idea, she could whip the 100 odd ministers to support + the 20 odd wanting a compromise.

Not sure I get your point on Labour? If they win they’re free to pursue a perm CU, if they lose they’ll be in the same position they are now, so not sure they’ve anything to lose by supporting the idea?


The problem is that Labour wouldn't win the subsequent general election - Corbyn would be seen as enabling May's deal which would upset remainers and those who want a second vote in his party and the country.
To win the General election Labour needs to be able to continue its balancing act and not totally rule out another referendum.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201388

Postby Sundance13 » February 14th, 2019, 4:57 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
The fixed term parliament act means that although she could propose it she would have to win a vote with the support of two-thirds of MPs to get it through. The ERG would be likely to oppose it because after 29th March they would be stuck with the backstop even if one of their own were then to become leader.
Labour would be in a similar position of despite previously voting against May's deal accepting it and then hoping to win the following General Election. Corbyn wants a General election but I suspect he would vote against it because of that - if possible, and I'm not sure whether or not it is possible, Labour would probably table an amendment to the vote calling for a General election which would force May to extend article 50 for the General election. This would give Labour both the General election which they want and maximum flexibility if they won that election allowing them to pursue their idea of a permanent customs union with the EU.



It would be difficult for sure, I’m working on the basis half the Conservative party would likely reject the idea, she could whip the 100 odd ministers to support + the 20 odd wanting a compromise.

Not sure I get your point on Labour? If they win they’re free to pursue a perm CU, if they lose they’ll be in the same position they are now, so not sure they’ve anything to lose by supporting the idea?


The problem is that Labour wouldn't win the subsequent general election - Corbyn would be seen as enabling May's deal which would upset remainers and those who want a second vote in his party and the country.
To win the General election Labour needs to be able to continue its balancing act and not totally rule out another referendum.



Fair point, I guess this could be mitigated if the EU allowed the rejoin on existing terms option I floated, you’d hope they’d accept or reject this ahead of May proposing the offer to the opposition parties.

He could also offer a close future deal on lines of Norway
, if the EU did reject the rejoin after new referendum option. Remainers May then take the view is a better choice than allowing the Tories to push through a looser FTA.

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201406

Postby Wizard » February 14th, 2019, 6:52 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
Wizard wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
I am closer to Labour on Europe than I am to the Conservatives, but quite vehemently against Corbynite Labour on pretty much everything else.

My sitting Labour MP is pro Remain in a pro Remain constituency, and voted for Andy Burnham in the last leadership contest. In the last election the sitting MP won by a landslide, although the constituency had a non-Labour MP as recently as 2015.

If there was an election tomorrow I really wouldn't know who to vote for, if I thought that a Corbyn government might be a result of a vote for the sitting MP. Certainly the choice is much more nuanced than you suggest.

DM

Exactly, a General Election will (and should) be about a lot more than just Brexit. It is why, even as somebody that voted leave in 2016, I find the use of 80%+ voting for parties with a manifesto claim to see through Brexit as a ludicrous attempt to justify anything.



Well my suggestion of a GE, was mainly to try & get the Labour front bench on board with supporting the WA and getting the bill passed. May will need cross party support if she adopts this approach as it’s likely some/most of her own party won’t support it.

IMO a mandate should be sought for the future relationship after we’ve left, you could I guess offer a new referendum on this after we’ve left, Canada v Norway perhaps, but that would be dictated by the parties manifestoes.

Yes, but if Labour win that would likely also mean a mandate to nationalise utilities, etc. So a leaver who would not want a CU but who supports all other Labour policies may well decide on balance to vote Labour and vice versa. There is a way to get a mandate on a single issue, its called a referendum :?

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Re: Brexit Solution!

#201412

Postby BobbyD » February 14th, 2019, 7:18 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
Thoughts?


The splits on Brexit aren't party splits, so nothing party based is going to be a solution.

All you'll end up with are more cake based promises from both parties, which at best half of their own candidates actually consider realistic or support.

It doesn't clarify anything, it just give us a new, thicker , mud in our puddle.

To clarify you need to simplify, and remove the choice from people whose professional future hinges on not taking the blame for making it. Referendum Deux. Division!

Wizard wrote:Exactly, a General Election will (and should) be about a lot more than just Brexit. It is why, even as somebody that voted leave in 2016, I find the use of 80%+ voting for parties with a manifesto claim to see through Brexit as a ludicrous attempt to justify anything.


It is ironically the claim which killed any belief I might have had in a government's democratic mandate stone dead, when Major used it as a justification for signing Maastricht.

Sundance13 wrote:
It would be difficult for sure, I’m working on the basis half the Conservative party would likely reject the idea, she could whip the 100 odd ministers to support + the 20 odd wanting a compromise.


You are assuming she still has 100 odd ministers five minutes after she announces her plans to make half of them unemployed. One of the reasons May has been allowed to survive by a party which on the whole disagrees with her is that despite her attempts at the last impromptu election she keeps a conservative government in power and Corbyn out for the next three years. She's already in office but not in power she isn't getting the majority she needs.

dionaeamuscipula wrote:I think it highly unlikely that we would be allowed back in on the existing terms.


As long as A50 isn't allowed to expire that doesn't become a problem, which is why the can kicker is about to have her can confiscated.

ursaminortaur wrote:The problem is that Labour wouldn't win the subsequent general election


I'm going to make exactly the same point as I made before the last election. Attempting to make a prediction of an election now is futile. The old rules for converting poll% in to seats are completely out the window, and nobody has any idea what effect the current shambles would have on turn out. There is a chance of no overall majority, and I've no idea what it is, the alternative is that there is a majority, and in some circumstances that will be a Labour majority. The only thing that is certain is that very few voters will be entirely happy with their ballot, of those who can bring themselves to vote one way or the other most will be conflicted and many bitter, but atleast we haven't let Brexit ruin faith in our democracy.


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