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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207698

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 4:07 pm

dspp wrote:
PeterGray wrote: I'm not best pleased, but in fact for me the big issue is that the general advice at the time - that diesel was better for the environment - was clearly wrong.


To be fair diesel was best for the environment from a global warming perspective, which is relevant to medium & long term human life. However petrol was better for the human environment in the short term (because diesel emit particulates and Nox & Sox).

Not exactly a distinction VW was hiding behind mind you :)

regards, dspp


From what I have read, the new diesels which spray urea (marketed as adblue or similar) into the exhaust gases are very clean and as one gets more miles per co2 emission, hence better for the environment.

It was interesting in yesterdays budget that all new houses from the relatively near future will be allowed no local co2 emitting appliances, no coal/wood burners, no natural gas at all. With this kind of legislation coming the market for home storage of electrical power looks attractive to me. Charge via solar or grid over night and use to run heat pump during the day.

Musk did note that storage would grow faster than auto and Tesla are well placed to take some of this market.

Meanwhile there is talk in the UK of a government funded and operated battery making factory(s) to make batteries so that folk here can make stuff. Kind of think this would be better as a private business, but the UK is so far behind the commercial battery curve as to make anything a good improvement.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207700

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 4:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Meanwhile there is talk in the UK of a government funded and operated battery making factory(s) to make batteries so that folk here can make stuff.


Oh god.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207735

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 7:11 pm

The UK industrial strategy and batteries with some interesting stuff:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... /38309.htm

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207789

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 7:57 am

The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

The Y addresses issues of the previous line up not having an hatch back & the range & performance of the various options fit in well with existing Tesla motors.

Whether the Standard price of $39k is too much will be decided by the market, but in general estate versions have historically sold for a premium over saloons.

The new super chargers have a capacity of 1000 miles per hour, which is imho a useful & practical figure.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.

Interesting too were his comments about storage & solar roofs which he said would receive more attention going forward after the all hands on deck times of 2018 for the model 3. Given the chancellors statement that new homes will soon be forbidden from carbon emission via natural gas, wood/coal I believe that solar roofs & storage will become important earners for Tesla.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207834

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 10:38 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.


Ody

Your comments are interesting. You almost seem to be suggesting that you believe the "substantial demand for Tesla" is more than their real sales of cars. Those of us questioning your views are putting forward arguments that the real sales of Tesla cars are way below Elon Musk's imaginary sales.

Your quote that "Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade" is an interesting one.

Some of us might say that the first 250,000 cars are the easiest. Financing and selling the next three quarters of a million may be more difficult.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207835

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 10:47 am

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.


Ody

Your comments are interesting. You almost seem to be suggesting that you believe the "substantial demand for Tesla" is more than their real sales of cars. Those of us questioning your views are putting forward arguments that the real sales of Tesla cars are way below Elon Musk's imaginary sales.

Your quote that "Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade" is an interesting one.

Some of us might say that the first 250,000 cars are the easiest. Financing and selling the next three quarters of a million may be more difficult.

regards

Howard


What I am wondering is how accurate are the estimates of Tesla sales.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207877

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 12:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

The Y addresses issues of the previous line up not having an hatch back & the range & performance of the various options fit in well with existing Tesla motors.

Whether the Standard price of $39k is too much will be decided by the market, but in general estate versions have historically sold for a premium over saloons.

The new super chargers have a capacity of 1000 miles per hour, which is imho a useful & practical figure.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.

Interesting too were his comments about storage & solar roofs which he said would receive more attention going forward after the all hands on deck times of 2018 for the model 3. Given the chancellors statement that new homes will soon be forbidden from carbon emission via natural gas, wood/coal I believe that solar roofs & storage will become important earners for Tesla.

Regards,


odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but they are all possibilities, maybe, upto etc etc.

Until they start making them and folk can buy them it is all marketing.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207886

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 1:31 pm

Whilst I believe Tesla's stock price may be more than slightly irrational, is it surprising that TSLA is currently down 2.3% in pre-market trading following that announcement? I don't like to jump to conclusions about the cause of movements, but it does seem likely that it might have something to do with the reveal. So what is it people don't like, design, price, timescale...?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207898

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 1:51 pm

Now down 4%. Not a massive slide by Tesla standards but probably not the response that a reveal which has been trailed for a year was hoped to bring.

Oh, also:

The Tesla Network Is Dead

A big part of Tesla’s (TSLA) growth story is built around the idea of the so-called Tesla Network, an autonomous vehicle service that CEO Elon Musk has claimed will compete with the likes of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) in the ride-hailing sector. Thus, the March 6 update of the Tesla website comes as something of a shock to those investors who had been projecting big revenues from the Tesla Network in the near future. The updated website has actually removed all reference to the Tesla Network.



- https://seekingalpha.com/article/424890 ... twork-dead

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207905

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:01 pm

Price rise going into events, then sell off after them.

Not a guaranteed rule but happens enough to make it a go to tactic for day traders.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207911

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:09 pm

This is a good watch to give some background into where Tesla have come from and the mistake that GM made when they forcibly took electric cars from owners and squashed them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru89x1j ... tion=share

Bob Lutz, who is featured in this video, has been one of the visionary for the electric car bears, but there are false prophets.

It is also interesting how people in positions of power and influence become detached from reality and believe stupid things and then do stupid things. This happens all the time and on very big things as anyone who has studied history across time and cultures will know.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207914

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:15 pm

BobbyD wrote:Now down 4%. Not a massive slide by Tesla standards but probably not the response that a reveal which has been trailed for a year was hoped to bring.

Oh, also:

The Tesla Network Is Dead

A big part of Tesla’s (TSLA) growth story is built around the idea of the so-called Tesla Network, an autonomous vehicle service that CEO Elon Musk has claimed will compete with the likes of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) in the ride-hailing sector. Thus, the March 6 update of the Tesla website comes as something of a shock to those investors who had been projecting big revenues from the Tesla Network in the near future. The updated website has actually removed all reference to the Tesla Network.



- https://seekingalpha.com/article/424890 ... twork-dead


Tesla is still an inside week, nothing unusual in the price action as I see the technicals.

Also Lyft and recently Uber have filed for IPO.

Perhaps in the by and by there will be another IPO, spinning off the Tesla Network, but will need more cars first. The development of the Tesla network was always a longer term project that will likely need robotic driving.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207948

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 4:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Perhaps in the by and by there will be another IPO, spinning off the Tesla Network, but will need more cars first. The development of the Tesla network was always a longer term project that will likely need robotic driving.

Regards,


It will definitely need self driving as the entire point of Tesla network was that your car could be off earning you money while you weren't using it, a sort of private car version of the L4 robo-taxis being trialled in the wild by Waymo and Aptiv.

Given the absence of a license for Tesla to trial L4 anywhere, the idea that they are about to spin off a robo-taxi division with no robo-taxis seems a little unlikely. Although if they pitch to Chris Grayling who knows?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207966

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 5:27 pm

Tesla has benefited from some pretty significant government subsidies up to now. And their US and Norwegian customers have been heavily subsidised.

The article below describes some of the other US, Californian and other grants which have historically helped Tesla's margins.

Most of these are reducing or coming to an end. And significantly in Europe and China subsidies are now more applicable to competitors offering cheaper cars.

More pressure on Tesla's future margins?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/424909 ... -tide?dr=1

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207969

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 5:31 pm

Howard wrote:Tesla has benefited from some pretty significant government subsidies up to now.


Not to mention a massive government loan.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208006

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 7:56 pm

Moody's rates Tesla debt B3, putting it in the junk category.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2019-03-15

"Tesla is challenged internally by ongoing operational missteps and strategy reversals over a short time period," the credit ratings agency said in a note Friday.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208036

Postby Howard » March 16th, 2019, 12:01 am

The launch of the Model Y was a slightly surreal event. I've just watched it on YouTube.

Having read that the actual launch of the new model took place only in the last few minutes of the event (and in virtual darkness), I knew that it was mainly a review of Tesla's progress since it started.

It was almost as though Elon Musk was saying goodbye at the end. He said something like "Thank you for coming, thank you for all your support over the years, it's been a hell of a ride".

Just made me wonder if he was moving on to a new role??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poTxDqms_nQ

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208037

Postby odysseus2000 » March 16th, 2019, 12:18 am

Another estimate of Tesla sales in Europe:

https://insideevs.com/february-2019-tes ... ne-europe/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208075

Postby odysseus2000 » March 16th, 2019, 1:08 pm

90% of electric owners won't return to gas:

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-owne ... et_3859001

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208077

Postby BobbyD » March 16th, 2019, 1:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:90% of electric owners won't return to gas:

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-owne ... et_3859001

Regards,


Not the highest quality study, and a headline which claims 90% and a first line which claims 88% is sloppy, although I don't doubt that a lot of e-drivers will remain battery powered.


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