tjh290633 wrote:OZYU wrote:One way to see if you are chasing yield too much is to, over a sensibly longish rolling period, see if your income unit growth is persistently lagging your divi per unit growth. If it is lower your yield by gradually altering your portfolio growth/income mix. We keep an eye on such things and measure all performamnce net of RPI.
I will have a look later at the changes over, say 5 or 10 year periods, to see if a a pattern emerges. You will note, of course, that unit value often lags dividend/unit, especially in the 2007-15 period. During that period I was obliged to make adjustments to the portfolio after the event, which was to comparatively lower yield shares from what had previously been higher yield shares, but which failed to live up to their name.
TJH
I have now had a chance to look at the changes over 5 year periods:
. . . 5 Yr Change
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value Div/Unit Difference
21-Apr-87 1.00 0.00
05-Apr-88 0.92 2.87
05-Apr-89 1.19 2.75
05-Apr-90 1.24 4.33
05-Apr-91 1.42 5.75 41.65%
05-Apr-92 1.38 7.97 50.86% 177.71% 349.42%
05-Apr-93 1.60 7.33 34.49% 166.74% 483.48%
05-Apr-94 1.81 6.65 45.97% 53.33% 116.00%
05-Apr-95 1.75 7.93 23.87% 37.83% 158.51%
05-Apr-96 2.07 7.81 49.50% -2.00% -4.05%
05-Apr-97 2.29 8.90 43.19% 21.44% 49.64%
05-Apr-98 3.48 10.52 92.79% 58.35% 62.89%
05-Apr-99 3.62 8.91 106.45% 12.33% 11.58%
05-Apr-00 3.51 11.96 69.84% 53.10% 76.02%
05-Apr-01 3.48 13.15 51.96% 47.73% 91.86%
05-Apr-02 3.57 13.82 2.63% 31.27% 1187.16%
05-Apr-03 2.45 12.95 -32.31% 45.46% -140.72%
05-Apr-04 3.14 14.37 -10.50% 20.10% -191.39%
05-Apr-05 3.72 14.02 6.80% 6.59% 96.92%
05-Apr-06 4.62 18.70 29.26% 35.33% 120.77%
05-Apr-07 5.27 20.84 114.95% 60.84% 52.93%
05-Apr-08 4.44 26.09 41.33% 81.62% 197.49%
05-Apr-09 2.45 22.76 -34.04% 62.40% -183.35% *
05-Apr-10 3.94 11.91 -14.61% -36.31% 248.54% *
05-Apr-11 4.61 16.71 -12.53% -19.78% 157.85% *
05-Apr-12 4.74 19.09 6.74% -26.83% -397.88%
05-Apr-13 5.27 22.91 115.01% 0.63% 0.55%
05-Apr-14 5.61 24.19 42.25% 103.16% 244.20%
05-Apr-15 6.21 26.23 34.63% 56.95% 164.48%
05-Apr-16 5.92 23.81 25.05% 24.73% 98.73%
05-Apr-17 6.62 26.21 25.53% 14.42% 56.47%
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 9.07% 37.17% 409.74%
16-Mar-19 6.25 31.57 0.69% 20.35% 2945.60%
Figures less than 100% in the final column indicate that the income lagged the unit price in that 5 year period. In a few instances marked (*) there are spurious figures caused by a negative change in the unit price over that period, or by both changes being negative. A rampant bull market will lead to the growth in unit price outpacing the growth in dividend, whereas a bear market will have the opposite effect.
As I said previously, dividend changes lag price changes because they refer to previous events in the main. Hence the 2008 crisis was not reflected in dividends immediately.
TJH