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Musk endeavours

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Archtronics
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Re: Musk endeavours

#221253

Postby Archtronics » May 13th, 2019, 11:17 am

Folks get carried away with completely driverless cars they are a long way off being mainstream imo, we don’t even have driverless trains yet.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221333

Postby BobbyD » May 13th, 2019, 4:23 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The problem, as others have mentioned, is that even with coming improvements going from potentially the high 90% in reliability to the few parts in a billion (preferably a lot better) short of near the 100% needed for steering wheel free cars looks extremely difficult.


The description I have heard is that it as difficult to get to 99% accuracy for an autonomous driver as it is to get from 99% to 99.9% and as difficult again to go from 99.9% to 99.99% etc. From memory it was Karl Iagnemma, but I could be wrong.

Archtronics wrote:Folks get carried away with completely driverless cars they are a long way off being mainstream imo, we don’t even have driverless trains yet.


There are loads of driverless train systems capable of full independent operation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ay_systems

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221362

Postby odysseus2000 » May 13th, 2019, 6:16 pm

Can only Tesla or a new car give you modern technology?

Say you want night vision, driver assist, rear view camera, anti-theft camera, but you don't want to buy a new car, well watch this from 4:30, better all of it to see what is available for a lot less than a new motor:

https://youtu.be/3k_nfZ2WYU4

The rate of innovation remains remarkable. Much of the technology seen in the Terminator 1 movie is now available at low prices.

imho a big chunk of this tech will soon be in most new cars and it is now a race to get to market, build a presence and continue to innovate such that you stay well ahead of the competitors. But the question comes down to how well such a moat can be defended.

Imho one individual who can push through this agenda will be crucial difference between the winners and losers. I doubt business by committee will work, the old joke of what is an elephant? Answer: A mouse designed by committee.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221436

Postby Howard » May 14th, 2019, 12:49 am

We are nearly half way through Q2 and indications are that Tesla sales are not encouraging. Will sales volumes be be any higher than Q1?

The “Invasion of Europe” has slowed dramatically especially in Norway. Maybe the Model 3 will achieve some sales in the UK? But its selling price isn’t very competitive and its Autonomous driving mode seems pretty useless on UK roads if the videos posted earlier are a good indication.

Tesla are being very quiet about their sales levels in Asia, so these aren’t likely to be that high and the political situation isn’t very helpful now.

It is possible that non - US sales may pick up a little as some ships are on their way to deliver more units for export, but to have an effect on Q2 results they will need to leave soon.

The lease programme in the USA may help sales a little, but commentators don’t seem to think that it is competitive enough to make a big impact.

At the moment it looks as though they may achieve 60-65,000 sales of all models in the quarter. And the share of higher margin S and X models has dropped further.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there is further talk about a shortage of cash despite the recent fund-raise. The company is having to cut back on capital expenditure, for example they have deferred the Semi truck project until next year at the earliest.

Unbelievably in their Q1 results update published a week or so ago, Tesla actually say “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”. Does anybody believe this stuff any more?

If sales really do drop way below Elon Musk’s forecasts , suppliers are going to get nervous. And production levels must be reduced or inventory will swallow up all the available cash.

Quite an interesting management problem!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221446

Postby BobbyD » May 14th, 2019, 7:30 am

Howard wrote:We are nearly half way through Q2 and indications are that Tesla sales are not encouraging. Will sales volumes be be any higher than Q1?

The “Invasion of Europe” has slowed dramatically especially in Norway. Maybe the Model 3 will achieve some sales in the UK?


VW Golf best selling BEV in Norway in April?

VOLKSWAGEN GOLF 987 EV
TESLA MODEL 3 721 EV
NISSAN LEAF 538 EV
BMW I3 497 EV

- https://eu-evs.com/

I'm sure I've had decent sites for German and Norwegian numbers before, anybody got anything decent or are we all relying on electrek/seeking alpha?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221499

Postby BobbyD » May 14th, 2019, 9:53 am

Ooops

...missed of 375 e-trons!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221832

Postby dspp » May 15th, 2019, 3:37 pm

Tesla battery partner Panasonic debunks rumors about alleged Gigafactory 1 conflicts = https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panason ... rtnership/

Tesla battery partner Panasonic sees higher Gigafactory output, cites Model S/X demand increase = https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panason ... -x-demand/

Both are worth a read, including some very clued-up comments beneath. Then compare and contrast with the issues of battery supply for legacy auto in the West, such as "Overall, the struggles reportedly being faced by Audi, and now Mercedes-Benz all but show that performing a production ramp of an electric vehicle is no joke. " at (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-x ... 0-per-day/) and this continues to be an interesting space.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221902

Postby redsturgeon » May 15th, 2019, 8:14 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins ... b3c7d46ed8

This Forbes article does not look like good news from China.

The Model 3 does not show up on Gasgoo’s list of the top-ten selling NEVs in China in April. The number ten model on that list, JAC’s iEV6E, sold 3,002 units for the month of April. So, the only conclusion I can draw (I have reached out to Tesla management for comment; they have yet to respond) is that Tesla did not even sell 3,000 Model 3s in China in April.


John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221920

Postby odysseus2000 » May 15th, 2019, 9:44 pm

This is an interesting video with the car mechanic describing the worst five car companies in terms of falling quality:

https://youtu.be/CbqibbNaNuQ

Tesla haven't been around long enough for consideration I expect, but he lays into five legacy brands.

Everyone who believe legacy auto is capable of doing great stuff might like to view this car mechanics video.

Of course one can argue that this guy doesn't know what he is talking about, but I have now watched many of his videos and from a hobby mechanic perspective he covers accurately and reliably many things I have learned fixing cars and I am sure he is right at least about one of the brands for which I have personal experience.

With competition like this the case for Tesla is imho much better than many legacy fan folk suggest.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221923

Postby BobbyD » May 15th, 2019, 9:51 pm

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/05/15/slow-sales-in-china-highlight-teslas-demand-problem/#39b3c7d46ed8

This Forbes article does not look like good news from China.

The Model 3 does not show up on Gasgoo’s list of the top-ten selling NEVs in China in April. The number ten model on that list, JAC’s iEV6E, sold 3,002 units for the month of April. So, the only conclusion I can draw (I have reached out to Tesla management for comment; they have yet to respond) is that Tesla did not even sell 3,000 Model 3s in China in April.


John


Watching the national car manufacturer of California getting to grips with China was always going to be interesting, bearing in mind how little impact they have had in the other 49 states.

Did you get the same 'you may also be interested in' underneath that article as me?

Tesla is dying a slow death and the industry has noticed. As one of my contacts in the auto supply community noted to me, "the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning." Tesla shares have limitless downside here. Be very careful.


A touch dramatic!

It also linked to an article which linked to Indie EV's estimates for Tesla US deliveries in April, which I don't think I'd seen.

Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 10,050 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in April 2019.

...

For April, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

Tesla Model S – 825
Tesla Model X – 1,050


- https://insideevs.com/news/347137/tesla ... april/amp/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#221931

Postby BobbyD » May 15th, 2019, 10:10 pm

Italy April, 2019.

Image

- https://insideevs.com/news/349102/april ... les-italy/

Not an EV hotbed!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222190

Postby Howard » May 16th, 2019, 5:53 pm

Another senior executive leaves Tesla. Is it significant that his role was to promote the company? It can't have been easy.

Promoting a so-called growth stock that isn't growing must be a bit disheartening.

And his stock options aren't looking too promising.

regards

Howard

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3464581-t ... hief-steps

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222198

Postby BobbyD » May 16th, 2019, 6:20 pm

Howard wrote:Another senior executive leaves Tesla. Is it significant that his role was to promote the company? It can't have been easy.

Promoting a so-called growth stock that isn't growing must be a bit disheartening.

And his stock options aren't looking too promising.

regards

Howard

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3464581-t ... hief-steps


I'd have thought Tesla's director of communications was the 16 year old intern to whom Musk dictates his tweets!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222257

Postby BobbyD » May 17th, 2019, 1:45 am

March Fatal Crash Model 3 confirmed as autopilot engaged, driver hands off wheel.

Autopilot was active when a Tesla crashed into a truck, killing driver
NTSB report says driver engaged Autopilot 10 seconds before the deadly crash.



- https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/05/fe ... sla-crash/

Tesla Limits Autopilot In Europe Due To New UN/ECE Regulations
Update notes show that Tesla's Autopilot has indeed run afoul of UN/ECE Regulation 79, forcing the company to limit functionality in a number of countries.


...GreenTheOnly recently tweeted the release notes for Autopilot's version 19.16 update, showing that Model S and Model X owners in certain markets will have Autopilot's functionality limited when the release goes live. The code revealed by GreenTheOnly indicates that the changes affect second-generation Tesla vehicles in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Monaco, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and The United Kingdom.

All the listed countries are signatories to the UN/ECE Regulation 79, which establishes standards for type approval of steering equipment. T


- https://www.thedrive.com/tech/28071/tes ... egulations

Tesla pushes battery software update after recent fires

The over-the-air update is going out to Model S and X cars now ‘out of an abundance of caution’


- https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/16/1862 ... -model-s-x

Top Tesla Investor Dumps 81% of Stock in Brutal Rebuke to Elon Musk

By CCN: The Wall Street Journal reports that T. Rowe Price Associates dumped around 81% of its Tesla stake during the first quarter of 2019. This is a brutal rebuke to the Elon Musk-led company, as T. Rowe Price has been one of the largest holders of Tesla stock over the years.

T. Rowe Price held just 1.7 million shares of Tesla on March 31 this year, down substantially from the 8.9 million shares it owned at the end of 2018. Its stake in the EV company is now at its lowest level since 2013.


- https://www.ccn.com/top-tesla-investor- ... -elon-musk

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222541

Postby BobbyD » May 17th, 2019, 6:28 pm

BobbyD wrote:That about doubles their life expectancy on a constant burn doesn't it? They migt even see in 2021!


Apparently not.

Musk in an email to employees, seen by Reuters, said its net proceeds from the offering gave Tesla only 10 months to achieve breakeven at the rate it was burning cash in the first quarter.

“That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the word, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must (be) reviewed,” Musk said.


- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKCN1SM2SS

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222553

Postby Howard » May 17th, 2019, 7:40 pm

Howard wrote:We are nearly half way through Q2 and indications are that Tesla sales are not encouraging. Will sales volumes be be any higher than Q1?

The “Invasion of Europe” has slowed dramatically especially in Norway. Maybe the Model 3 will achieve some sales in the UK? But its selling price isn’t very competitive and its Autonomous driving mode seems pretty useless on UK roads if the videos posted earlier are a good indication.

Tesla are being very quiet about their sales levels in Asia, so these aren’t likely to be that high and the political situation isn’t very helpful now.

It is possible that non - US sales may pick up a little as some ships are on their way to deliver more units for export, but to have an effect on Q2 results they will need to leave soon.

The lease programme in the USA may help sales a little, but commentators don’t seem to think that it is competitive enough to make a big impact.

At the moment it looks as though they may achieve 60-65,000 sales of all models in the quarter. And the share of higher margin S and X models has dropped further.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there is further talk about a shortage of cash despite the recent fund-raise. The company is having to cut back on capital expenditure, for example they have deferred the Semi truck project until next year at the earliest.

Unbelievably in their Q1 results update published a week or so ago, Tesla actually say “if our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019”. Does anybody believe this stuff any more?

If sales really do drop way below Elon Musk’s forecasts , suppliers are going to get nervous. And production levels must be reduced or inventory will swallow up all the available cash.

Quite an interesting management problem!


I see that Elon Musk agrees with me.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/426 ... ?dr=1#alt2

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222571

Postby BobbyD » May 17th, 2019, 8:54 pm

Howard wrote:I see that Elon Musk agrees with me.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/426 ... ?dr=1#alt2

regards

Howard



From your article:

Norway Q2 to date...

2019 Q2 Norway BEV

May 16

1 VW eGolf 1458

2 Tesla Model 3 1088


The shopping trolley lives!!!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222581

Postby odysseus2000 » May 17th, 2019, 10:20 pm

The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.

So let me postulate an explanation.

As soon as model 3 became available in a particular market, the punters who really lusted after one, bought one and before long that exhausted the "I must have" brigade. With these buyers sated, demand fell as often happens with a new model as more cautious folk wait to see what kind of reviews it gets etc.

If the reviews and feedback were terrible one would expect sales to be small, but if the reviews were good one would expect some of the folk wanting an electric car to decide to try a Tesla. So that during the next months demand stabilises and as folk look at the competition, read reviews and such we get a much better picture of what demand will be like going forward.

Looking at things in this perspective the selling of 1458 eGolf by a big and well known maker against 1088 model 3s does not look to me like folk are deciding en-mass to buy VW, perhaps because there are no VW to buy due to battery shortages or because the model 3 is seen to be a very good car.

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222591

Postby BobbyD » May 17th, 2019, 11:48 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.

So let me postulate an explanation.

As soon as model 3 became available in a particular market, the punters who really lusted after one, bought one and before long that exhausted the "I must have" brigade. With these buyers sated, demand fell as often happens with a new model as more cautious folk wait to see what kind of reviews it gets etc.

If the reviews and feedback were terrible one would expect sales to be small, but if the reviews were good one would expect some of the folk wanting an electric car to decide to try a Tesla. So that during the next months demand stabilises and as folk look at the competition, read reviews and such we get a much better picture of what demand will be like going forward.

Looking at things in this perspective the selling of 1458 eGolf by a big and well known maker against 1088 model 3s does not look to me like folk are deciding en-mass to buy VW, perhaps because there are no VW to buy due to battery shortages or because the model 3 is seen to be a very good car.

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,


Ody this is the e-Golf. a 180 mile range £33,000 compliance conversion of an ICE car. I love that people are loving it but the launch edition of the ID3 will set you back a whole £2k extra if you are prepared to wait a little... Personally I'd wait.

Besides I thought the VW brand was toxic, that punters were just waiting for the opportunity to throw them over for a virtue signalling Tesla badge, that anything with a range under 300 miles was a shopping trolley, and that the model 3 had no competitor?

If any of the arguments put forwards in favour of the model 3 here were true the e-golf shouldn't be within spiting distance of the model 3, as it is it is handsomely outselling it in Europe's most electrified market, and you can already place orders for it's successor which to my mind is a far better proposition being that it is cheaper, has a longer range and being designed as an electric car makes better use of the car's volume.

As to the Tesla shorts, having just missed closing the week out with Tesla below $210 I'm sure they are off somewhere drowning their sorrows...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#222597

Postby Howard » May 18th, 2019, 12:30 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The interesting thing to me is that Tesla model 3 sales are not collapsing.

They are selling cars into all the European markets that they are currently in although at volumes that are lower than the initial surge.
..................

It is clear that all the short sellers on Seeking Alpha are looking at the Tesla sales in a very different way. They may be right, but I am far from convinced that the current Tesla model 3 sales are indicative of a dying company.

Regards,


Ody

The problem is surely that whilst Tesla model 3 sales aren't collapsing, they are reducing in all markets at the moment. Peak sales are behind them and the future is not looking very rosy. And they are making a loss.

Manufacturers of ICE cars are selling much larger volumes and making profits. Yes, most of us would like EV manufacturers to succeed but it's difficult to support a company built on hype and broken promises. Other EV manufacturers are looking more trustworthy as they are not over-claiming but gradually developing and building competitive products.

Investors may be patient, but companies that sell products at a loss aren't very popular if they can't grow sales. Tesla is currently rated as a growth stock. If it is going to plod along with "sales that aren't collapsing" the market will re-rate the shares and it will find it more and more difficult to raise funds. There is now quite a bit of evidence that they won't be able to fund many of the projects they have hyped. Even the model Y development may be under threat if they are running short of cash.

And it may be that their recent over-selling of the capabilities of Autonomous drive will backfire as it attracts publicity for every sad fatal accident where the Autonomous mode could be blamed. Why can't Tesla supporters accept that Autonomous is just a glorified cruise control at the moment which requires drivers to pay attention to the road ahead at all times?

Surely even you, as one of their ardent supporters must sometimes wish that Tesla just concentrated on improving the quality of the model 3 so that it justified its high price?

regards

Howard


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