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Serious Question - who do I vote for?

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johnhemming
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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222236

Postby johnhemming » May 16th, 2019, 8:35 pm

BobbyD wrote:People are free to make their choice.

Indeed they are. It is clear your choice is Change UK. I don't think it is unreasonable for me to try to find out if you agree with their strategy. Obviously in terms of not having members for the party other than MPs you agree with them. That is your right.

I think they will find this challenging in the short, medium and long term.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222237

Postby BobbyD » May 16th, 2019, 8:40 pm

johnhemming wrote:The underlying problem is that our political system has an electoral process that rewards parties that are not internally consistent. Hence you get a really broad membership that are in substantial disagreement with each other. The tories used to work essentially on the basis that the party was the parliamentary party. If a centrist party does not have "members" on the ground it has the risk of disappearing because it has no grass roots at all.


...and I fully expect you to be caught sneaking out at midnight to dance a discreet little jig on their grave, but that's their choice, and it's how they choose to run their party.

The chances of a new party surviving in any significant form are pretty slim to start with, setting up with an empowered membership open to any daily Express reader capable of signing their name on the membership application form helpfully printed on the Express front page would have removed any hope, so a party which fizzles out because of a lack of grass roots is well ahead of the game.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222240

Postby BobbyD » May 16th, 2019, 8:56 pm

johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:People are free to make their choice.

Indeed they are. It is clear your choice is Change UK. I don't think it is unreasonable for me to try to find out if you agree with their strategy. Obviously in terms of not having members for the party other than MPs you agree with them. That is your right.

I think they will find this challenging in the short, medium and long term.


My choice isn't Change UK. I refute attacks on Change UK here because I consider those attacks flawed.

I agree with what Change UK have done, and would like to see them survive for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean I support them exclusively, or that I will continue to do so if their interests and mine cease to coincide. This is politics, not football.

I think Change UK are almost certainly damned in the short to medium term, and always were but you don't have to survive to have an effect. Offered the choice between complicity in the party game and taking a massive personal risk they took the risk which I respect. You might question the motivation of one or two Changees, but the likes of Wollaston and Gapes have never struck me as power mad megalomaniacs. There are others far more deserving of my ire in parliament and political life in general, and I would have hoped the same was true for you.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222244

Postby johnhemming » May 16th, 2019, 9:21 pm

BobbyD wrote:I would have hoped the same was true for you.

Because they occupy an overlapping section of ideological ground with the LIb Dems I welcomed their original establishment. I did not, however, expect them to be stupid enough to fight elections without some form of electoral agreement. Even though the European Elections use a form of PR standing separately still causes damage to the particular cause of remaining in the EU.

Their motivation for this cannot be other than self-interest and their leaked strategy was not sensible. Politics is replete with the conflict between self interest and the public interest. Trump, for example, is a good example of where self-interest dominates.

There are wider questions as to how political parties should operate.

We will see where this goes. In the end the creation of the SDP as a separate party was a mistake because even though they had an alliance with the Lib Dems the organisational conflict undermined the over all alliance. It may be that the shambles that has been the tigger campaign will have the positive effect of them shutting down as a separate party and some if not all of them joining the lib dems.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222250

Postby ursaminortaur » May 16th, 2019, 10:53 pm

johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:I would have hoped the same was true for you.

Because they occupy an overlapping section of ideological ground with the LIb Dems I welcomed their original establishment. I did not, however, expect them to be stupid enough to fight elections without some form of electoral agreement. Even though the European Elections use a form of PR standing separately still causes damage to the particular cause of remaining in the EU.

Their motivation for this cannot be other than self-interest and their leaked strategy was not sensible. Politics is replete with the conflict between self interest and the public interest. Trump, for example, is a good example of where self-interest dominates.

There are wider questions as to how political parties should operate.

We will see where this goes. In the end the creation of the SDP as a separate party was a mistake because even though they had an alliance with the Lib Dems the organisational conflict undermined the over all alliance. It may be that the shambles that has been the tigger campaign will have the positive effect of them shutting down as a separate party and some if not all of them joining the lib dems.


The SDP being mainly formed from ex-labour MPs was a centre-left party and I'd suggest that the Liberals at that time were also centre-left. Change-UK hasn't staked out its position yet but has attracted MPs from both the Tories and Labour hence it isn't a forgone conclusion that they will occupy exactly the same political ground as the LibDems.
With the Labour party having moved to the left (as compared to the Blair/Brown years) and the Tories seeming to have moved to the right there is certainly political ground for both a centre-left and a centre-right party or even as the Greens show parties which distinguish themselves on other grounds.
Under FPTP it is difficult for any small party to grow however the current splits in both the Labour and Tory parties over Brexit do open up the possibility of defections from those parties, eg if a hardline brexiteer were to become Tory leader, and hence the possibility of a realignment in british politics which could favour one or more of these smaller more centrist parties.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222251

Postby BobbyD » May 16th, 2019, 10:59 pm

johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:I would have hoped the same was true for you.

Because they occupy an overlapping section of ideological ground with the LIb Dems I welcomed their original establishment. I did not, however, expect them to be stupid enough to fight elections without some form of electoral agreement. Even though the European Elections use a form of PR standing separately still causes damage to the particular cause of remaining in the EU.

Their motivation for this cannot be other than self-interest and their leaked strategy was not sensible. Politics is replete with the conflict between self interest and the public interest. Trump, for example, is a good example of where self-interest dominates.

There are wider questions as to how political parties should operate.

We will see where this goes. In the end the creation of the SDP as a separate party was a mistake because even though they had an alliance with the Lib Dems the organisational conflict undermined the over all alliance. It may be that the shambles that has been the tigger campaign will have the positive effect of them shutting down as a separate party and some if not all of them joining the lib dems.


You've posted all this before. They made their decisions, Libs made theirs. The frequency with which you pick at the change scab sounds rather as if you are annoyed that they haven't treated the Libs as gatekeepers to the liberal/remain turf and got their plans approved before they had the temerity to act on them.

Given the complete farce that is the current Tory government and two faced Labour opposition the fact that the thing that is currently getting you most exercised is whether or not Change UK offer public memberships risks looking somewhat churlish. They made a stand, you may not agree with it, or how they did it, but this level of public opprobrium is to my mind ill judged.

Either way as long as they exist in Westminster they serve my purpose.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222266

Postby johnhemming » May 17th, 2019, 6:46 am

ursaminortaur wrote:The SDP being mainly formed from ex-labour MPs was a centre-left party and I'd suggest that the Liberals at that time were also centre-left. Change-UK hasn't staked out its position yet but has attracted MPs from both the Tories and Labour hence it isn't a forgone conclusion that they will occupy exactly the same political ground as the LibDems.

Political parties are coalitions. Hence the real question is one as to overlap rather than necessarily technical questions about particular policies. The SDP did have one defection from sitting Conservative MPs and there are Conservatives who self describe as being centre left.

At least they are enabling a reductio ad absurdum test of the "destroy the lib dems" strategy.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222267

Postby johnhemming » May 17th, 2019, 6:49 am

BobbyD wrote:you are annoyed

I am annoyed by them putting self interest in front of the public interest. The remain parties should have been able to put forward a set of remain candidates. This was not "impractical". It would have been able to rely on the infrastructure of the Lib Dems which would have meant that, for example, a slate could have been registered which would have had an emblem.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222273

Postby JohnB » May 17th, 2019, 7:48 am

New parties get a boost from their novelty as recipients of a protest vote. The SDP did a lot to boost the Liberal cause (I remember David Steel's "prepare for government" speech as a child). The difference between the standings of the Brexit and Change parties in the opinion polls shows the latter have failed and are going to vanish. But you can't deny their desire to want to make a ripple in the political pond, and simple defection to the LDs, while more efficient, wouldn't have satisfied their egos, and all politicians need huge egos.

There are centrists that don't like the LDs, especially for their coalition performance. If they vote Change this time, it will give space for their frustrations to fade, and the Liberal movement will gain them in the end.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222285

Postby Nimrod103 » May 17th, 2019, 8:46 am

JohnB wrote:New parties get a boost from their novelty as recipients of a protest vote. The SDP did a lot to boost the Liberal cause (I remember David Steel's "prepare for government" speech as a child). The difference between the standings of the Brexit and Change parties in the opinion polls shows the latter have failed and are going to vanish. But you can't deny their desire to want to make a ripple in the political pond, and simple defection to the LDs, while more efficient, wouldn't have satisfied their egos, and all politicians need huge egos.

There are centrists that don't like the LDs, especially for their coalition performance. If they vote Change this time, it will give space for their frustrations to fade, and the Liberal movement will gain them in the end.


It is a bit baffling that the "Change" party have eschewed coalition, perhaps as you say even condemning the LibDems for having been in coalition with the Tories. After all, I thought coalition was the universal way of doing politics in the EU and its constituent countries.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222315

Postby Wizard » May 17th, 2019, 9:54 am

johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:I would have hoped the same was true for you.

Because they occupy an overlapping section of ideological ground with the LIb Dems I welcomed their original establishment. I did not, however, expect them to be stupid enough to fight elections without some form of electoral agreement. Even though the European Elections use a form of PR standing separately still causes damage to the particular cause of remaining in the EU.

Their motivation for this cannot be other than self-interest and their leaked strategy was not sensible. Politics is replete with the conflict between self interest and the public interest. Trump, for example, is a good example of where self-interest dominates.

There are wider questions as to how political parties should operate.

We will see where this goes. In the end the creation of the SDP as a separate party was a mistake because even though they had an alliance with the Lib Dems the organisational conflict undermined the over all alliance. It may be that the shambles that has been the tigger campaign will have the positive effect of them shutting down as a separate party and some if not all of them joining the lib dems.

I suspect at least some, if not all, the CUK MPs thought that once they appeared on the scene they would draw the majority of LibDem voters to support them as they thought the legacy of the coalition would mean those voters liked the idea of a clean slate. Of course the slate isn't clean, CUK may have no legacy but the MPs that formed it have and that can be examined. The switch from LibDems to CUK has not happened and I imagine CUK are both surprised and frustrated by that. For the EU elections I think the die is cast on the Remain side, people will vote Lib Dem or Green, very few will vote CUK. In the end they may not have much of a negative impact on the other Remain parties as their vote may end up being very low.

On the point of membership versus supporters I do have some sympathy with their position. A party can start bottom up, in which case building a membership is key. But CUK has started top down, so I can see why they may say "this is what we stand for, support us if you agree". Whether that is sustainable long term for a top down formed party is another matter, but as short term expediency it is understandable.

But then I personally do not see anything but a short term for CUK. I personally expect them to limp on after a shocking performance in the EU elections trying to claim relevance and using the fact they have MPs to get a disproportionate amount of media 'air time' relative to their support in the country. Then at the next General Election they will all be voted out of Parliament and CUK will fold.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222599

Postby Howyoudoin » May 18th, 2019, 12:35 am

Just got back to my old place after a 26 mile trip to pick up my postal vote.

I think it cost me about £1.30 in petrol and I expect it to cost the same for the journey back tomorrow.

In total about the same as a cup of coffee I guess.

On my doormat, as well as my postal vote, I have flyers from the Tories, Labour, Greens, UKIP and the Brexit Party. Nothing from the Lib Dems, which is disappointing. And nowt from Change UK.

I think they’ve probably given up on Havering, seeing as this one of the biggest Brexit boroughs in London, if not THE biggest.

It’s a bit ironic really, seeing as I’ve moved to Kensington and Chelsea, which I imagine is one of the biggest Remain boroughs.

So now I just need to decide what to do.

If the Lib Dems can’t be bothered to campaign in this area I need to decide whether I can be bothered to vote for them.

Brexit is going to win by a country mile in this area so is my remain vote worth anything or do they just look at the winner?

HYD

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222603

Postby Charlottesquare » May 18th, 2019, 4:05 am

Wizard wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:I would have hoped the same was true for you.

Because they occupy an overlapping section of ideological ground with the LIb Dems I welcomed their original establishment. I did not, however, expect them to be stupid enough to fight elections without some form of electoral agreement. Even though the European Elections use a form of PR standing separately still causes damage to the particular cause of remaining in the EU.

Their motivation for this cannot be other than self-interest and their leaked strategy was not sensible. Politics is replete with the conflict between self interest and the public interest. Trump, for example, is a good example of where self-interest dominates.

There are wider questions as to how political parties should operate.

We will see where this goes. In the end the creation of the SDP as a separate party was a mistake because even though they had an alliance with the Lib Dems the organisational conflict undermined the over all alliance. It may be that the shambles that has been the tigger campaign will have the positive effect of them shutting down as a separate party and some if not all of them joining the lib dems.


I suspect at least some, if not all, the CUK MPs thought that once they appeared on the scene they would draw the majority of LibDem voters to support them as they thought the legacy of the coalition would mean those voters liked the idea of a clean slate. Of course the slate isn't clean, CUK may have no legacy but the MPs that formed it have and that can be examined. The switch from LibDems to CUK has not happened and I imagine CUK are both surprised and frustrated by that. For the EU elections I think the die is cast on the Remain side, people will vote Lib Dem or Green, very few will vote CUK. In the end they may not have much of a negative impact on the other Remain parties as their vote may end up being very low.

On the point of membership versus supporters I do have some sympathy with their position. A party can start bottom up, in which case building a membership is key. But CUK has started top down, so I can see why they may say "this is what we stand for, support us if you agree". Whether that is sustainable long term for a top down formed party is another matter, but as short term expediency it is understandable.

But then I personally do not see anything but a short term for CUK. I personally expect them to limp on after a shocking performance in the EU elections trying to claim relevance and using the fact they have MPs to get a disproportionate amount of media 'air time' relative to their support in the country. Then at the next General Election they will all be voted out of Parliament and CUK will fold.


Why would the Lib Dems move to Change?

Maybe the new way is to believe that all you need to do is build it and they will come, a party with a website and no depth, maybe you CGI in the adoring masses at your Conference, but actually not so, the Lib Dems have structure, organisation and foot soldiers re leaflets etc, Change have an idea, some MPs so loads of chiefs but few Indians, there is no strength in depth ,which is a tough way to endure.

Whilst politics may more and more be being led by the 30 second soundbite on TV or the staged media event, there is a lot to be said for the grassroots support underpinning the first team, delivering the leaflets, getting boards up at the polling stations et al.

To be transparent on here, about a week ago I joined the Lib Dems as a party member. I did consider Change re my support but having thought through the question, including numbers of grassroots activists, there was no real choice for me as to which was the better Remain pick.
A former mainly Conservative voter may be a strange bedfellow into the Lib Dems in some ways but Change appear, to me at least, to have little of substance . Anyway I did flirt with the Libs/SDP in the 1980s before later financial progress in life seduced me to the Conservatives,I even went to listen to David Steel I think circa 1981/1982 when I was at Edinburgh University, a week or so after his, "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government speech, so maybe the Lib Dems are nearer my heart and in the past the Conservatives were nearer my head.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222611

Postby johnhemming » May 18th, 2019, 6:46 am

Howyoudoin wrote:If the Lib Dems can’t be bothered to campaign in this area I need to decide whether I can be bothered to vote for them.

I cannot comment on what is happening in your area. The West Midlands Lib Dem campaign is substantially being run via my offices in Birmingham and I know I have been moving around hundreds of thousands of leaflets (with others) for people to pick up to deliver. Vans come with pallets of leaflets and they are stored temporarily in my offices. We may not hand deliver a leaflet to every house in the West Midlands, but we will deliver a lot.

The party is "campaigning" across the UK (if one includes Alliance in NI)

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222628

Postby BobbyD » May 18th, 2019, 9:19 am

johnhemming wrote:
BobbyD wrote:you are annoyed

I am annoyed by them putting self interest in front of the public interest. The remain parties should have been able to put forward a set of remain candidates. This was not "impractical". It would have been able to rely on the infrastructure of the Lib Dems which would have meant that, for example, a slate could have been registered which would have had an emblem.


There should have been a Remain party slate put up, for which all Remain parties could have campaigned. No Lib candidates, no green candidates, no change candidates, no policies, no member of any of those parties on the slate. I doubt there would have been only one objection to that.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222631

Postby johnhemming » May 18th, 2019, 9:27 am

We did propose a remain slate, but that was rejected.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222635

Postby Wizard » May 18th, 2019, 9:37 am

Charlottesquare wrote:Why would the Lib Dems move to Change?

Maybe the new way is to believe that all you need to do is build it and they will come, a party with a website and no depth, maybe you CGI in the adoring masses at your Conference, but actually not so, the Lib Dems have structure, organisation and foot soldiers re leaflets etc, Change have an idea, some MPs so loads of chiefs but few Indians, there is no strength in depth ,which is a tough way to endure...

The only answer I can give is why I think CUK thought LibDem voters would switch to them. It basically comes down to one ‘push’ and one ‘pull’. The ‘push’ being that LibDem voters had still not foregiven the party for their actions in the coalition when Clegg sold the soul of the party to satiate his own ambition and ego. The ‘pull’ being that the CUK MPs thought they were more charismatic than Vince and team, with Brexit being the overwhelming issue at the moment they thought all they had to say was that they support Remain as well and the LibDems would come to them (along with Labour and Conservative Remain voters).

It’s not a completely crazy way of thinking. I think once Brexit is off the agenda one way or another many who have voted LibDem will start to look at wider issues and may well move away again. And let’s face it Vince has less charisma than a dead fish. So not a bad idea, but things have not played out that way, maybe for the reasons of party infrastructure you reference.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222651

Postby ursaminortaur » May 18th, 2019, 10:42 am

Howyoudoin wrote:Just got back to my old place after a 26 mile trip to pick up my postal vote.

I think it cost me about £1.30 in petrol and I expect it to cost the same for the journey back tomorrow.

In total about the same as a cup of coffee I guess.

On my doormat, as well as my postal vote, I have flyers from the Tories, Labour, Greens, UKIP and the Brexit Party. Nothing from the Lib Dems, which is disappointing. And nowt from Change UK.

I think they’ve probably given up on Havering, seeing as this one of the biggest Brexit boroughs in London, if not THE biggest.

It’s a bit ironic really, seeing as I’ve moved to Kensington and Chelsea, which I imagine is one of the biggest Remain boroughs.

So now I just need to decide what to do.

If the Lib Dems can’t be bothered to campaign in this area I need to decide whether I can be bothered to vote for them.

Brexit is going to win by a country mile in this area so is my remain vote worth anything or do they just look at the winner?

HYD


These elections are run under a proportional system with multi-seat constituencies/regions rather than using the UK's usual first part the post system (The d'Hondt system in GB and STV in NI). Hence although the Brexit party may be ahead in the polls they are not going to win all the seats. In the 2014 EU elections UKIP had 32.88% of the vote and got 24 MEP seats out of the 73 available.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/poll-support-for-ukip-hits-record-high/

A total of 73 MEPs were elected. The Conservatives, the party currently in governing coalition with the Liberal Democrats, were pushed into third place for the first time in a European Parliament election, the same position as Labour in the previous 2009 European Parliament election. It was also the first time since 1984 that the largest opposition party failed to win the European Parliament election.

The UK Independence Party UKIP won 32.88% of the vote and 24 MEP seats. The Labour Party came second with 27.4% of the vote and 20 MEP seats. The Tories came third with 26.03% of the vote and 19 MEP seats. The Green Party of England and Wales obtained 3 MEP seats, the Scottish National Party obtained 2, The Liberal Democrats and four smaller parties obtained one seat each.


See

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-48202795

for the number of seats available in each region/constituency. London has 8 seats available.

In the 2014 EU election only one UKIP MEP was elected in London - Gerard Batten.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/european-elections/european_elections/results.html

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222659

Postby johnhemming » May 18th, 2019, 11:06 am

Wizard wrote:And let’s face it Vince has less charisma than a dead fish.

I suppose you would not be surprised that I disagree. I think Vince would have made a good leader instead of Nick Clegg. He (Vince) is far more creative in his thinking.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#222661

Postby Lootman » May 18th, 2019, 11:11 am

johnhemming wrote:
Wizard wrote:And let’s face it Vince has less charisma than a dead fish.

I suppose you would not be surprised that I disagree. I think Vince would have made a good leader instead of Nick Clegg. He (Vince) is far more creative in his thinking.

Ha, "creative" is one way to describe him I suppose, as a euphemism. I am with Wizard on this one. I think Vinnie is unfit for purpose.

Mind you, I'd say the same about May and Corbyn. It almost seems these days that the smartest people no longer go into politics, and we end up with third rate minds in Westminster.


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