dspp wrote:Interesting.
Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.
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dspp wrote:Interesting.
Clitheroekid wrote:dspp wrote:Interesting.
Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.
Clitheroekid wrote:dspp wrote:Interesting.
Excuse my ignorance, but please could you explain why you find this interesting? Not being in the industry myself I don't understand its relevance to HUR.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Sorry to be slow when you people refer to FPSO, do you mean this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_ ... offloading
thanks Matt
JoyofBrex8889 wrote:Well, the gap down this morning blew through my stop loss so I am back in the red. Oh well, 5 more wells to go in the Spirit campaign. Let’s see what the next drill brings.
FabianBjornseth wrote:JoyofBrex8889 wrote:Well, the gap down this morning blew through my stop loss so I am back in the red. Oh well, 5 more wells to go in the Spirit campaign. Let’s see what the next drill brings.
The last 3 wells and the Lincoln tie-back to AM are subject to new investment decisions, as per the latest company presentation: https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/2915/5531/1740/Hurricane_Corporate_Presentation_-_2Q_2019.pdf
The plan has been laid out to have 6 pre-drilled producers completed before the full field development decision on GWA. Hurricane and Spirit are now down to 5, so to me this looks like a pretty bad outcome, which has materially increased the risk of the whole GWA development plan.
Going back to the CPR issued in December 2017 for the non-Lancaster assets, Figure 7.4 appears to show the mapped faults over Lincoln, Warwick and the southern part of Lancaster. It can seem like the mapped fault density is relatively low in the area where Warwick Deep was drilled. An optimistic view might be that this was a less prospective area to begin with, and that the read-across to Lancaster, Lincoln and Warwick Crest is limited. However, the fracture mapping has almost certainly been updated since the CPR was issued - after all, the company thought the chance of success high enough to prioritize it in this drilling campaign. A pessimistic view might emphasize that a lot of the volumes in all of Hurricane's prospects are below structural closure, and that the Warwick Deep outcome puts a question mark next to all of these.
Most of the information on Warwick in the CPR is a copy of assumptions from Lincoln, which in turn is assumed to behave like Lancaster (although it has yet to be flow tested). The evidence that suggests producible hydrocarbons below structural closure is in the log data from Lincoln, and read-across from Lancaster wells 205-21a-4Z and 205-21a-7. However, the productivity of the 205-21a-4Z well was a modest 12 bbl/d/psi, attributed to to a high skin, and 205-21a-7 mainly produced from two very large fractures in the top of the well, with resistivity logs and oil bubbles indicating deep hydrocarbons. https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/110/258
The CEO's notes from the AGM indicated that the volumes in the Lincoln discovery would be sufficient for a standalone FFD. The eyes are now on the Lincoln horizontal well, which likely needs to exhibit "Lancaster horizontal-style" productivity to keep the GWA plan on schedule.
JoyofBrex8889 wrote:Re: Scuttlebutt
It is obvious by looking at the price action over recent weeks that the smart money knew earlier that the WD well was a disappointment. The trend clearly told a story.
Knowing that other market participants probably know or are very good at guessing well results will make watching the price action a real blood-sport in the run up to the next two well results.
14 09 18: DSPP estimates - actual now (Q3 18) | | | | | | | | | |
value now, after Spirit deal | | | | | | | | | |
| STOIIP | RF | MMboe | Cat | $/bbl | $mln (field) | HUR share | $mln (HUR) | comment | £/share alloc (HUR)
Lancaster - FFD vol | 2,364 | 25% | 529 | 2C (50%) | $1.00 | $529 | 100% | $529 | | £0.16
Lancaster - EPS vol | | | 62 | 2P (50%) 10yr | $5.00 | $311 | 100% | $311 | | £0.10
Halifax | | | 1,235 | 2C | $1.00 | $1,235 | 100% | $1,235 | | £0.38
Lincoln | | | 604 | 2C | $1.00 | $604 | 50% | $302 | | £0.09
Warwick | | | 935 | P50 | $0.10 | $94 | 50% | $47 | | £0.01
Whirlwind | | | 179 | 2C | $0.50 | $90 | 100% | $90 | | £0.03
Strathmore | | | 32 | 2C | $0.10 | $3 | 100% | $3 | | £0.00
Tempest/Typhoon | | | 1,307 | P50 | $- | $- | 100% | $- | to be relinquished | £-
| | | | | | | | | |
Subtotal | | | 4,883 | | $0.59 | $2,865 | | $2,516 | | £0.78
SentimentRules wrote:Been an interesting move today. I was short from 57.8p. Didn't take any profit. The break today, currently at 51.80p , up 16.5% on the day, has me pondering for the last few minutes, who is buying ?
Can't find the usual culprits so decided I can compound short 51.20 This addition gives me a breakeven number at 54.7 exit. So That let's market fill the void and medium fund targets of 52 to protect short aggregate.
If wrong, shoulda taken my 25% days ago lol. But that's AIM for you.
dspp wrote:RNS https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurri ... d=14375793
RNS Number : 2150F Hurricane Energy PLC 11 July 2019 Operational Update: Capital Markets Day
The Company and its contractors have been evaluating the drill stem test data, well pressures and fluid samples which indicate that Warwick Deep has penetrated a light oil column. Further analysis is required to be able to understand the background to this result and its implications.
"We are encouraged by the Warwick Deep well, despite the penetrated fracture system not supporting a commercial oil flow rate. Hurricane's assessment of data acquired during drilling and testing indicates that the well encountered a significant oil column on the Warwick structure. Our initial analysis indicates an OWC consistent with pre-drill predictions. Confirmation of our provisional analysis will require data from the remaining 2019 drilling campaign, as well as fluid sample analysis from Warwick Deep. Importantly, we have evidence that suggests to Hurricane that the result at Warwick Deep does not have negative read-across to Lancaster or Lincoln.."
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