Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

Mercedes-Benz completes deliveries of its fleet of electric semi trucks for testing with customers

Mercedes-Benz has now delivered the last one of its 10 eActros electric semi trucks as part of the first phase of its ‘Innovation fleet’ to test the electric trucks with customers.

- https://electrek.co/2019/07/12/mercedes ... est-fleet/

They could do with a winner

Mercedes Shows the Car Industry Can't Be Trusted

A shocking profit warning less than three weeks after the last one. This goes beyond the usual kitchen-sinking by a new boss.

...But this is Daimler’s fourth profit warning in barely 12 months, and the last one came less than three weeks ago. It had already chucked out the kitchen sink; now’s it’s moved on to tearing out the plumbing.

- https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... be-trusted

[dspp]

cobalt report, Reuters

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-congo ... KKCN1U716M

[odysseus2000]

cobalt report, Reuters

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-congo ... KKCN1U716M

Is tesla' Cobalt usage still tending to zero?:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/17/te ... n-commits/

Regards,

[dspp]

"UK Treasury has confirmed that employees who drive zero-emission company cars will pay no benefit-in-kind (BIK) tax for the year. This decision heavily incentivizes businesses to purchase electric vehicles for their fleets, which contribute to nearly six out of ten new car registrations in the UK today. "

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ny-car-uk/

[BobbyD]

Say hello to my little friend

Pablo Escobar’s brother wants $100 million in Tesla shares for Not-a-Flamethrower dispute

https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-bor ... r-dispute/

[dspp]

3. VAG has put $7bn into that architecture, which is compromised for BEVs by also being able to cater for dino-juice variants. Mass and volume do not disappear. Also double-counting dino-juice platfor $ as BEV $ does not fool everyone.

Where does the engine go in the Modular electric drive matrix (MEB)?

The models of the future I.D. family are currently being developed on the basis of the new Modular electric drive matrix (MEB). These are Volkswagens in a variety of classes which have been designed as full electric vehicles and reach ranges of up to 500 km and more. The architecture of the MEB will fundamentally change electric cars and cars in general. The Modular Electric Toolkit jettisons all the ballast of the fossil age as it has been designed consistently for electric cars. This leads to fundamental changes in body design, interior design, the package and the powertrain characteristics of electric Volkswagens.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... x-meb-3677

Why would you build ICE cars on a BEV platform when you already posses the best selling ICE platform ont he planet?

That would be crazier than building BEV cars on an ICE platform when you have developed the best BEV platform out there....

BD,

My understanding is that VAG are planning to deliver an overall unified BEV and ICE and HEV platform. That at least has been my understanding. Then if you ask these questions you will see some of the issues:

1. What is the weight of the battery. What is the weight of the ICE equivalents. The ICE is lighter, and the weight is differently located - one has fore & aft weight, and the other is low down and central. Different polar moments, different CoG, different absolute masses. So the suspension beef, unibody rigidity and load transfer paths, and heights are all different. So a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

2. What is the volume of the ICE engine vs the space grab required for a frunk ? Again a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

3. Where is the fuel tank ? That volume and crash protection / firewalling for the fuel tank & engine compartments are not required in the BEV. So a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

4. The ICE engine acts like a battering ram in transferring impact forces into the passenger cell. So the ICE design needs different structural protections than the BEV design. So a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

5. The BEV cell modules are an opportunity for rigidity function sharing. That does not exist in the ICE so rigidity must come other ways. So a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

6. Ditto for NVH, cooling, heating, etc etc etc

Modularity in design and in manufacture has been a holy grail for the auto industry for 30+ years now, and they have found it exceedingly difficult to achieve even for comparatively similar ICE products. In fact it is arguable if trad auto has ever quite managed to 'do' modularity and whether it can in fact really be done ever. The leader at getting it right in my opinion is in fact VAG = Toyota so I have a very high opinion of them in this respect. However adding in pure BEV products into the modularity mix is - in my opinion - going too far. To be honest they struggle enough with satisficing designs already. Trying to force modularity and platforming too far gets bad design outcomes that exhibit themselves in ways that become obvious at some point, including complexity, cost, and customer appeal. This is how camels designed by a committee arise, courtesy of the computerised optimal exploration of design space to end up with hopeless compromises.

I am sure this is one of the design insights that took Tesla down the purebred route, added into the top-down entry strategy, and the dash-for-volume strategy. Having first-mover advantage also allows Tesla to grab the most obvious design language and to grab the patent goody box first. That means followers have to work around.

Just my personal professional opinion. No charge. Feel free to disagree, it is not something I am too fussed about, and I am happy to listen to different opinions on the subject. And believe me - over the years - I have had many discussions on the subject with my colleagues on that side of the fence and it is a rightly hotly debated topic.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

"UK Treasury has confirmed that employees who drive zero-emission company cars will pay no benefit-in-kind (BIK) tax for the year. This decision heavily incentivizes businesses to purchase electric vehicles for their fleets, which contribute to nearly six out of ten new car registrations in the UK today. "

Trump administration freezing fuel efficiency penalties

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration said late on Friday it was issuing final rules to suspend a 2016 Obama administration regulation that more than doubled penalties for automakers failing to meet fuel efficiency requirements.

Congress in 2015 ordered federal agencies to adjust a wide range of civil penalties to account for inflation and, in response, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) under President Barack Obama issued rules to eventually raise fines to $14 from $5.50 for every 0.1 mile per gallon of fuel that new cars and trucks consume in excess of the required standards.

Automakers protested the hike, saying it could increase industry compliance costs by $1 billion annually.

After a group of states and environmental groups filed suit, the Trump administration began the process of formally undoing the Obama regulation and first proposed the freeze in 2018.

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... reddit.com

Watched an interesting autoline over the weekend which basically predicted that the US is going to become an ICE island in a sea of BEV...

[BobbyD]

3. VAG has put $7bn into that architecture, which is compromised for BEVs by also being able to cater for dino-juice variants. Mass and volume do not disappear. Also double-counting dino-juice platfor $ as BEV $ does not fool everyone.

Where does the engine go in the Modular electric drive matrix (MEB)?

The models of the future I.D. family are currently being developed on the basis of the new Modular electric drive matrix (MEB). These are Volkswagens in a variety of classes which have been designed as full electric vehicles and reach ranges of up to 500 km and more. The architecture of the MEB will fundamentally change electric cars and cars in general. The Modular Electric Toolkit jettisons all the ballast of the fossil age as it has been designed consistently for electric cars. This leads to fundamental changes in body design, interior design, the package and the powertrain characteristics of electric Volkswagens.

- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... x-meb-3677

Why would you build ICE cars on a BEV platform when you already posses the best selling ICE platform ont he planet?

That would be crazier than building BEV cars on an ICE platform when you have developed the best BEV platform out there....

BD,

You are not thinking like a design engineer here. If you ask these questions you will see some of the issues:

1. What is the weight of the battery. What is the weight of the ICE equivalents. The ICE is lighter, and the weight is differently located - one has fore & aft weight, and the other is low down and central. Different polar moments, different CoG, different absolute masses. So the suspension beef, unibody rigidity and load transfer paths, and heights are all different. So a compromise design is worse than two point-designs.

Which is why VW have only used compromise designs as a bridgegap until they had their dedicated BEV platform, MEB....

MEB isn't a compromise design, it is purebred BEV.

ICE cars will continue to be built on exiting, highly succesfull, ICE platforms. BEV's will be developed on MEB.

The models of the future I.D. family are currently being developed on the basis of the new Modular electric drive matrix (MEB). These are Volkswagens in a variety of classes which have been designed as full electric vehicles and reach ranges of up to 500 km and more. The architecture of the MEB will fundamentally change electric cars and cars in general. The Modular Electric Toolkit jettisons all the ballast of the fossil age as it has been designed consistently for electric cars. This leads to fundamental changes in body design, interior design, the package and the powertrain characteristics of electric Volkswagens.

That is the entire reason I approve of VW's choices regarding electrification. They have invested heavily in a dedicated BEV platform rather than electrifying an ICE platform as some manufacturers are still doing. They are converting plants to pure BEV production, rather than running production lines which produce both BEV and ICE side by side. Zwickau will turn out VW, SEAT and Skoda BEV's in a net carbon neutral production process, China and the states will also be getting BEV plants. ICE production will continue as normal elsewhere.

This isn't just good from an engineering and production point of view, it is better than many of their competitors can afford to do. VW's healthy annual profits have afforded them a step up in the electrification process. Companies like Ford have four choices. They can buy credits and pay fines, they can continue to put batteries in to ICE's in increasingly less competitive and more expensive bodge jobs, they can spend billions they don't have and believe they would not recoup developing their own dedicated BEV platform, or they can hand VW cash money in return for the important part of the BEV and become a coachbuilder adding the seats and the roof before applying their own badge. Ford have elected to outsource their first generation of European BEV's to VW.

Just my personal professional opinion. No charge. Feel free to disagree, it is not something I am too fussed about, and I am happy to listen to different opinions on the subject. And believe me - over the years - I have had many discussions on the subject with my colleagues on that side of the fence and it is a rightly hotly debated topic.

I believe we have the same opinion, based on a different understanding of the facts.

[BobbyD]

My understanding is that VAG are planning to deliver an overall unified BEV and ICE and HEV platform. That at least has been my understanding.

Missed the line it would have been easiest to respond to...

My understanding is exactly the opposite. MEB (Modular Electric Drive Matrix in English) is intended as the basis only of BEV's. They already have ICE platforms covered, and their hybrids will naturally go alongside those. MEB is for everything from the e-citigo to the Audi Q4 etron, but not for anything with an ICE. It has a fixed wheelbase, allows for a single rear synchronous motor, which may be supplemented with a front mounted asynchronous motor (thinking about it I wonder if this might have been mistaken for an ICE?) in higher spec models, and 3 different battery configurations. There is quite a decent explanation of the system in the German language ID3 video I posted a while back.

It is precisely because I agree with you that a dedicated BEV platform offers significant advantages that I think that you are wrong about MEB's prospects!

That of course isn't to say that VW can't still leverage their ICE scale to their advantage in BEV's. A wheel nut is a still a wheel nut afterall, a screen still a screen...

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
A wheel nut is a still a wheel nut afterall

I went into a US auto parts store and asked for a wheel nut and none of the staff had a clue what I wanted.

When I pointed to the nut on the wheel, I was told it is a lug nut!

Lug nuts or wheel nuts depending upon your preference are actually cone nuts and lock in place even when the wheel turns in the opposite direction. Originally cars had left and right hand threads and then lug nut were invented and this simplified wheel changes.

I have never found a standard, there have been all manner of different threads on the cars I have personally worked on.

Regards,

[dspp]

My understanding is that VAG are planning to deliver an overall unified BEV and ICE and HEV platform. That at least has been my understanding.

Missed the line it would have been easiest to respond to...

My understanding is exactly the opposite. MEB (Modular Electric Drive Matrix in English) is intended as the basis only of BEV's. They already have ICE platforms covered, and their hybrids will naturally go alongside those. MEB is for everything from the e-citigo to the Audi Q4 etron, but not for anything with an ICE. It has a fixed wheelbase, allows for a single rear synchronous motor, which may be supplemented with a front mounted asynchronous motor (thinking about it I wonder if this might have been mistaken for an ICE?) in higher spec models, and 3 different battery configurations. There is quite a decent explanation of the system in the German language ID3 video I posted a while back.

It is precisely because I agree with you that a dedicated BEV platform offers significant advantages that I think that you are wrong about MEB's prospects!

That of course isn't to say that VW can't still leverage their ICE scale to their advantage in BEV's. A wheel nut is a still a wheel nut afterall, a screen still a screen...

OK, thanks. In that case maybe I am misunderstanding VAG's intentions, so happy to be corrected.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

dspp OK, thanks. In that case maybe I am misunderstanding VAG's intentions, so happy to be corrected.

The problem VW have is that no one believes what they say.

Not only did they get caught cheating on emissions, but they have put out various comments about BEV and yet at the same time they are still making a lot of money from ICE and HBV technology.

VW and a lot of legacy are caught in this vice, that to go for BEV seriously they have to scale back what they are doing in ICE and HBV, but that is where all their sales are currently coming from.

Ford have missed the boat and are now scrambling to have some politically credible position on BEV.

BMW have realised they are in trouble and have booted one of their guys but they are still in the same vice.

Mercedes have also been too complacent and are losing sales and spooking their investors.

Jaguar Landrover are a complete mess and the folk who hark back to what Jaguar and Range Rover where have failed to understand how they have changed. This is Scotty Kilmer's take on JLR:

https://youtu.be/8ke93byIouM

GM have got electric cars and are selling them and look the best placed of legacy auto to do BEV although their volt is crude by comparison to a Tesla it is available and folk seem to like it.

Fiat Chrysler are lost in the wilderness.

Honda have seen the light and got a good town car almost into production but are in the vice re legacy still selling.

Toyota have gone a long way down the HBV which imho is a cul de sac that will pain them and they now seem to realise this and are trying to get big in BEV, but again are in the same vice.

Nissan have adopted the Renault approach: Make rubbish and sell it and French folk will keep buying it, ditto Peugeot.

Italian motors are all over the place.

Koreans can't make enough of their electric cars, not available in the UK for years.

Chinese are building fast, NIO have just produced several 10's of 1000s of their Tesla model X equivalent and BYD have a ton of stuff going on. China looks to me like a winner with BEV.

India are stuck without much battery capacity as I understand it, but are a natural market for Chinese BEV.

Volvo have seen the light and are going into fully BEV, dropping their diesel like its an hot potato, but they too have the vice that legacy is selling.

Russia doesn't seem to have a credible BEV capability.

Only Tesla are currently imho in a strong position with a portfolio of BEV and more coming, a proven tech and big expansions going on. There is still a ton of short interest, so I expect a short squeeze:

Short interest:

https://twitter.com/MattUntermanS3/stat ... 1329209344

Meanwhile legacy power is doing its best to get the politicians to hurt renewables. As I understand Spain there are bans on private ownership of solar electric panels and in the UK Vat has just been thrown on solar, telling anyone who thinks what the political establishment understands: Money from legacy power beats clean air for their voters:

https://youtu.be/sjfCOkQr_MI

Similar things being done in the US.

None of this surprises me. I expect legacy to use its political connections to slow renewables and BEV even thought its clear that they are fighting against a huge current, they will follow Edision and do some extraordinarily stupid things trying to show anyone who will not bother to study the situation that legacy fossil fuel is the best and that climate change is wrong.

Many investors will believe legacy and one sees these folk all over Seeking Alpha, playing what is a probability argument that goes something like: Legacy is established, has money and can easily weather any storm by controlling the politicians and getting favourable financial breaks while the new comers are weak. Often these kinds of arguments work but when one has disruptive tech they often don't and they cost investors who follow the ideas a packet.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

The problem VW have is that no one believes what they say.

I think that's mainly you, and the fundamentalist Teslarati. Either way it is plainly wrong. The people who are buying their cars in record numbers appear to believe what they say, the people who have put down a cash deposit to pre-order models yet to be unveiled seem to have no problem believing what they say, and Ford appear to have no problem believing what they say. Given the choice, I think VW are believed by the people who matter, customers, of whom you are never going to be one. I think VW will weather your disapproval. You don't believe them, we get that, but you are projecting your opinion on to a planetsworth of people who plainly don't share it. I do love the way you try and make the fact that they are profit making in to a credibility damaging negative though. Very creative.

[redsturgeon]

dspp OK, thanks. In that case maybe I am misunderstanding VAG's intentions, so happy to be corrected.

The problem VW have is that no one believes what they say.

Not only did they get caught cheating on emissions, but they have put out various comments about BEV and yet at the same time they are still making a lot of money from ICE and HBV technology.

VW and a lot of legacy are caught in this vice, that to go for BEV seriously they have to scale back what they are doing in ICE and HBV, but that is where all their sales are currently coming from.

Ford have missed the boat and are now scrambling to have some politically credible position on BEV.

BMW have realised they are in trouble and have booted one of their guys but they are still in the same vice.

Mercedes have also been too complacent and are losing sales and spooking their investors.

Jaguar Landrover are a complete mess and the folk who hark back to what Jaguar and Range Rover where have failed to understand how they have changed. This is Scotty Kilmer's take on JLR:

https://youtu.be/8ke93byIouM

GM have got electric cars and are selling them and look the best placed of legacy auto to do BEV although their volt is crude by comparison to a Tesla it is available and folk seem to like it.

Fiat Chrysler are lost in the wilderness.

Honda have seen the light and got a good town car almost into production but are in the vice re legacy still selling.

Toyota have gone a long way down the HBV which imho is a cul de sac that will pain them and they now seem to realise this and are trying to get big in BEV, but again are in the same vice.

Nissan have adopted the Renault approach: Make rubbish and sell it and French folk will keep buying it, ditto Peugeot.

Italian motors are all over the place.

Koreans can't make enough of their electric cars, not available in the UK for years.

Chinese are building fast, NIO have just produced several 10's of 1000s of their Tesla model X equivalent and BYD have a ton of stuff going on. China looks to me like a winner with BEV.

India are stuck without much battery capacity as I understand it, but are a natural market for Chinese BEV.

Volvo have seen the light and are going into fully BEV, dropping their diesel like its an hot potato, but they too have the vice that legacy is selling.

Russia doesn't seem to have a credible BEV capability.

Only Tesla are currently imho in a strong position with a portfolio of BEV and more coming, a proven tech and big expansions going on. There is still a ton of short interest, so I expect a short squeeze:

Short interest:

https://twitter.com/MattUntermanS3/stat ... 1329209344

Meanwhile legacy power is doing its best to get the politicians to hurt renewables. As I understand Spain there are bans on private ownership of solar electric panels and in the UK Vat has just been thrown on solar, telling anyone who thinks what the political establishment understands: Money from legacy power beats clean air for their voters:

https://youtu.be/sjfCOkQr_MI

Similar things being done in the US.

None of this surprises me. I expect legacy to use its political connections to slow renewables and BEV even thought its clear that they are fighting against a huge current, they will follow Edision and do some extraordinarily stupid things trying to show anyone who will not bother to study the situation that legacy fossil fuel is the best and that climate change is wrong.

Many investors will believe legacy and one sees these folk all over Seeking Alpha, playing what is a probability argument that goes something like: Legacy is established, has money and can easily weather any storm by controlling the politicians and getting favourable financial breaks while the new comers are weak. Often these kinds of arguments work but when one has disruptive tech they often don't and they cost investors who follow the ideas a packet.

Regards,

I am not sure I agree with your main premise here.

The fact the VW still earns billions from ICE is what has enabled it to spend 70 billion on BEV would you rather they started from zero and raised the capital on the stock market?

The fact that they have made and sold many millions of cars to date means that they know how to make cars that work well and are efficiently put together. It means they have a network that can provide the after sales service that people expect to keep their cars on the road or get them back on the road after a simple fender bender in less than three months!

Now the UK government are reducing BIK on BEVs to 0% from 2020 means it is a no brainer for me to buy a BEV next year on my company . Look at the maths:

I buy an ICE car for £40k BIK and the BIK with be between 25 and 37% depending on emissions, so as a higher rate payer that will cost me at between £4000 and £6000 pa just in tax!

My BEV will cost a big fat zero in tax!

Also my BEV will be 100% capital allowance in year one.

All looking good so far, except it is that easy to buy a decent BEV.

I have tried to register for the ID3 but the website is down (excessive demand, VW will sell every single one they can make in 2020)

Kia and Hyundai have stopped taking orders this year.

I may have to buy a Tesla, but when will right hand drive be available?

John

[odysseus2000]

Tesla model 3 right hand drive have been available in the UK since June:

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/mod ... specs-news

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Following Henry Ford by cutting prices.

Model 3 Standard, effective price now, $30,315:

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#battery

This price includes potential incentives and gas savings.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

I have tried to register for the ID3 but the website is down (excessive demand, VW will sell every single one they can make in 2020)

Website is back up. Although it was up this morning when I checked, and then the whole thing disappeared...

They've improved the ID3 bit since I last looked.

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/e-mobility ... ly/id.html

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/electric-c ... gn-up-form

Following Henry Ford by cutting prices.

Model 3 Standard, effective price now, $30,315:

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#battery

This price includes potential incentives and gas savings.

Regards,

That isn't what price means...

$38,990

Purchase price

I've seen this complained about before, and frankly I'm amazed it's legal. How you can 'discount' the price by knocking off the value of a third parties product is staggering enough, but to then not include your own $1200 delivery fee is absolutely gob smacking. Talk about duplicitous, if that were any other company you'd be ranting about lyin' legacy...

Cash Price $38,990

Incentives - $4,375
Gasoline savings - $4,300

Price After potential savings $30,315

Destination & doc fee $1,200

- https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#battery

[BobbyD]

In a new lineup update today, Tesla killed the ‘Standard Range’ versions of Model S and Model X again.

The California-based electric automaker is now only offering ‘Long Range’ and ‘Performance’ versions of Model S and Model X:

It means that the Model S now starts at $80,000 and the Model X at $85,000.

Furthermore, Tesla is making the ‘Ludicrous’ package, which enables the 2.4-second 0-60 mph acceleration on the Model S Performance, standard on all its performance Model S and Model X.

It was previously a $20,000 option.

- https://electrek.co/2019/07/15/tesla-up ... del-s-x-3/

Ouch. Another bunch of really pissed off recent customers. No delivery charge.

[odysseus2000]

Tesla pricing is volatile.

Anyone who is prepared to wait and game the system can do well.

I imagine the folk who buy into some up swing are not happy, but whether they care once they start driving is another thing.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Tesla Earnings report July 24th