Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34,Anonymous, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262518

Postby odysseus2000 » November 6th, 2019, 9:55 am

Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


Great article.

I have for a long time thought the German car industry was in very serious trouble & that they would fail to react in time & get murdered by newer entrants.

All my research looking at disruptive change over the centuries came to very similar conclussions to this article: Powerful incumbents nearly always become the futures study of failures.

Although many have become fans of German auto we should not forget that there are also huge troubles in Japan, Italy, Russia & France as well as the German subsidiaries such as Skoda being caused by this disruptive technology. To these auto makers we can also add the entire oil & natural gas industries that are both seeing political pressure re co2 emission & competing energy from renewable sources.

Imho Europe is set up for very serious economic decline & I am now seeing this reality enter into politicians minds & panic is likely to lead to the politicians getting involved. If they are anything like as competent as were the UK's with our once powerful auto industry the rate of decline of European auto will accelerate.

It remains a great tragedy to me that the UK, where the first industrial revolution began, no longer has the capability to compete in these rapidly expanding fields. The weakness in Sterling that began a long time before Brexit would have been a great boon for manufacturing, although the same troubles of incumbents failing to make the appropriate decisions when faced with secular change would likely have been a problem here too.

Regards,

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 883 times
Been thanked: 1012 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262522

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 10:18 am

Is Tesla changing its approach to selling cars? Obviously China is a key market and it will want to make sure that its approach is successful and so will try out some new (or old?) ideas.

A Reuters article suggests that Tesla have realised that they must have many more sales centres in China to distribute their cars.

Some interesting quotes. Suggesting that Tesla are investing in Sales Promotion techniques rather similar to legacy auto. And realising that pre and after-sales service is important.

“Tesla had already treated China, the world’s biggest electric vehicle market, differently than elsewhere. The company and Musk openly disdain marketing, but in China Tesla has offered racing events and showroom parties.”

Has this senior Tesla official been reading some of our sceptical posts?

“ “Building cars from the Shanghai factory is just the first step,” Tesla vice president Tao Lin said at an industry conference last month in Beijing. “Next we must deliver cars very well to our customers and provide very good after-sales service.”

I’m not being critical of the company. They appear to be realising that an internet selling approach is not enough and are beginning to move in the direction of offering more tangible customer service. This may be a good sign. However it is going to cost the company money. This doesn’t sound like a cheap initiative.

regards

Howard

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... sinessNews

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262532

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 10:46 am

Howard wrote:I’m not being critical of the company. They appear to be realising that an internet selling approach is not enough and are beginning to move in the direction of offering more tangible customer service. This may be a good sign. However it is going to cost the company money. This doesn’t sound like a cheap initiative.


You'd have thought the idea that people coughing up $40,000 - $100,000 for an item might like it to arrive in decent condition and be fixed in less than a month if it breaks, once they'd burnt through the fanbois who took putting up with dinged up paintwork and 3 months waits for parts to be a sign of dedication to the cause, might have cropped up at some point in the last decade... I'm not sure how that can't be a criticism of the company.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262540

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 11:46 am

Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


I can understand why spiegel introduces this as being about the german sector as a whole, given their audience, but what they actually talk about is mostly Daimler, and BMW.

I'm hardly going to argue that Waymo isn't a world leader in AD, I've been making this point consistently for some little time, although it might have been worth mentioning that the company with a Level 3 AD for sale which you aren't allowed to use because the law still requires the driver to pay attention at all times is ...Audi...

The amount of room given to the fact that Tesla use robots is ...baffling. It's not like nobody else uses them, or uses them better. Musk's aim may have been to build the machine which builds the machine and show legacy auto how mass manufacture was done, but that was before he discovered he didn't know how it was done and decided that Tesla's future dominance would be based on robot taxis, or the number of 80's arcade games you could play or whatever it currently is. The only thing we learnt from that is that Tesla's big break through is always just around the corner, no no, the next corner... it's almost as if the man is talking his stock price up. If you want to see a well automated factory check out the Taycan production line: https://youtu.be/A_cV4D2EX80

The first two figures are of questionable use. Yes, alphabet has a very high market cap. We knew that. It makes buying a chunk quite difficult we knew that too. The prospective value of Waymo whilst incalculable would actually be meaningful. BEV output 2018 ...let's just say it's about to change quite dramtically, we know it is, it even said so in the first paragraph of this story... Zwichau + Chattanooga + Embden + Hanover + Anting + Foshan is going to make the high score on that list look tiny. I'm fairly sure we all knew that cars make up a lot of Germany's exports too, so that's fig.3 wasted...

The power of 150 PC's? please... Tesla no more came up with the idea of smart summon than they came up with the idea of wheels, it's been used in discussions of AD and promotional material for years, and sentry mode has been a staple of sci of for decades. These are not ideas Tesla 'came up with'.

The coverage of Tesla is hyperbolic fanfic.

...ok, first page was mainly Daimler, second is heading down the mainly BMW route... and back to Daimler...

The companies reacted to political pressure with their e-offensives, but policymakers, Oettinger believes, weren't precise enough with the incentives they offered. EU regulations, he argues, allow producers to sugarcoat their CO2 balances: They are allowed to calculate 0-grams of CO2 emissions from their electric vehicles, even though the production of those vehicles alone produces several tons of the greenhouse gas. "It's not always accurate to view electric vehicles as climate-neutral," says Oettinger. "It also depends on how the electricity is generated, whether it comes from renewable sources or not."


...sounds familiar! Sensible man.

Even if customers begin buying more electric automobiles in the future, there is no guarantee that they will be German models. A car reviewer from the French daily Le Monde expressed astonishment in May at the purchase prices of 82,600 euros for an Audi e-tron and 78,950 euros for the Mercedes EQC. They are certainly attractive, comfortable cars with a 400-kilometer range and 300-kilowatt output, he wrote, but the steering is "less technically mature" than in comparable Tesla models. More than anything, though, he wrote, the two models are lacking a dose of boldness: "They feel like electrified conventional vehicles and not like a new generation of cars."


He, much like Ody appears to have missed the point of the e-tron. The punters haven't though, see graph in above post.

Electric motors have maybe 100, maximum 200 parts. In electric mobility, the battery is the most valuable part and accounts for around a third of the value added. And the batteries will not be coming from Germany, but from Samsung and LG Chem in South Korea or from CATL in China. The race to establish at least one European battery producer seems to have already been lost.


It's called Northvolt. The author should really like it bearing in mind it was founded by two Tesla alumni, and is 20% owned by VW...

Hardly anyone is doing as much to ward off that fate as VW CEO Diess.


Now we are talking!

...oh no, back to the doom and gloom!

I'm not sure there's anything in that article you won't find somewhere in this thread, the unsubstantiated adulation of Musk for was certainly very familiar as are the questions about the viability of manufacturers who only produce 2.5 million cars a year.

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 883 times
Been thanked: 1012 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262544

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 12:15 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard wrote:Below is a link to a very long article in Spiegel online - Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

It's a German journalistic view of the major challenges facing their car manufacturers. And it doesn't underplay the seriousness of their situation.

Worth a read or a skim.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 93415.html

regards

Howard


Great article.

I have for a long time thought the German car industry was in very serious trouble & that they would fail to react in time & get murdered by newer entrants.

All my research looking at disruptive change over the centuries came to very similar conclussions to this article: Powerful incumbents nearly always become the futures study of failures.

Although many have become fans of German auto we should not forget that there are also huge troubles in Japan, Italy, Russia & France as well as the German subsidiaries such as Skoda being caused by this disruptive technology. To these auto makers we can also add the entire oil & natural gas industries that are both seeing political pressure re co2 emission & competing energy from renewable sources.

Imho Europe is set up for very serious economic decline & I am now seeing this reality enter into politicians minds & panic is likely to lead to the politicians getting involved. If they are anything like as competent as were the UK's with our once powerful auto industry the rate of decline of European auto will accelerate.

It remains a great tragedy to me that the UK, where the first industrial revolution began, no longer has the capability to compete in these rapidly expanding fields. The weakness in Sterling that began a long time before Brexit would have been a great boon for manufacturing, although the same troubles of incumbents failing to make the appropriate decisions when faced with secular change would likely have been a problem here too.

Regards,


This is a hard-hitting article outlining the challenges to the German car manufacturing industry and it touches on much of the discussion on this forum.

I think it points to an issue which we have debated here on many occasions. It’s obvious that the car market will look dramatically different in twenty years time. The thousands of smaller companies making components for ICE engines are facing extinction if they don’t change to manufacturing components for cleaner engines (at the moment, probably electric motors). And the move to self-driving vehicles will need huge investments in technology and IT which presents major opportunities to IT companies.

There is a another issue which is more of a behavioural/marketing challenge which faces car manufacturers. And the question here is will the advance in technology take any remaining pleasure out of driving?

It’s likely, over twenty years, that driving in cities will become much more like getting a bus. As a passenger, who cares who made the self-driving vehicle or how satisfying it is to drive or control? So long as it is reasonably tidy, who cares if it is a bit utilitarian? Safety, punctuality and speed of journey are the most important factors. The personal relationship with cars will disappear and the manufacturers who can produce at the lowest price whilst meeting safety standards will get the largest mass-market share.

What will happen to the premium car market? I’ve picked out one quote from the Spiegel article which I think is perceptive.

And there is much to suggest that BMW isn't planning to abandon its hesitant course any time soon, despite its planned introduction of new electric vehicle models. CEO Zipse isn't a fan of taking incalculable risks, neither with the production of electric vehicles nor when it comes to mobility and car-sharing services. BMW's core competency, he says, is "building the best cars in the world." That, he continues, "is the real challenge facing our industry."

A key question for me then is, (making a huge assumption) if our society doesn’t change dramatically over the next twenty years, what kind of car will a consumer who wants a premium brand be purchasing? And what kind of after-sales service will they require?

I’m completely biased. At the moment, I believe BMW do build the best kind of (sensible) premium cars in the world. They are a joy to drive on today’s congested roads. (Along with some other premium cars.) But will they be able to do this in twenty years time? The challenge for them and the other premium brands is to continue building cars which discerning buyers will pay for. To do this, they will have to harness BEV skills and IT capabilities which don’t exist today. Will they do this by linking with IT companies? Probably!

Many premium car drivers spend more time with their car than with their partners. So the quality of the car is very important. No criticism, but if a consumer is happy to own and drive an unreliable old banger they won’t understand the motivation of someone who is prepared to pay a premium for a quality car.

We are necessarily discussing expensive cars a lot of the time on this forum because Tesla price their cars at £40 - £120k. They are not in the mass-market and show no signs of being able to compete in the future bus-like inner city market segment. Will they beat the Germans in the premium sector or will they run out of money?

:D Watch this space.

regards

Howard

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 883 times
Been thanked: 1012 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262548

Postby Howard » November 6th, 2019, 12:32 pm

I don't know how to cross post, but do look at Wheypat's post on his Model 3 test drive on the Cars and Motoring forum.

Someone more expert than me might give a link. ;)

regards

Howard

PinkDalek
Lemon Half
Posts: 6139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 1589 times
Been thanked: 1800 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262560

Postby PinkDalek » November 6th, 2019, 1:07 pm

Howard wrote:I don't know how to cross post, but do look at Wheypat's post on his Model 3 test drive on the Cars and Motoring forum.

Someone more expert than me might give a link. ;)


You beat me to it but it is here:

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=262541#top

Just copy the URL and paste.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262660

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 9:22 pm

Howard wrote:This is a hard-hitting article outlining the challenges to the German car manufacturing industry and it touches on much of the discussion on this forum.


I think it has flaws, which isn't to say it isn't worthwhile, it would certainly act as a much more concise primer for those joining the thread...

Howard wrote:
What will happen to the premium car market? I’ve picked out one quote from the Spiegel article which I think is perceptive.

And there is much to suggest that BMW isn't planning to abandon its hesitant course any time soon, despite its planned introduction of new electric vehicle models. CEO Zipse isn't a fan of taking incalculable risks, neither with the production of electric vehicles nor when it comes to mobility and car-sharing services. BMW's core competency, he says, is "building the best cars in the world." That, he continues, "is the real challenge facing our industry."

A key question for me then is, (making a huge assumption) if our society doesn’t change dramatically over the next twenty years, what kind of car will a consumer who wants a premium brand be purchasing? And what kind of after-sales service will they require?

I’m completely biased. At the moment, I believe BMW do build the best kind of (sensible) premium cars in the world. They are a joy to drive on today’s congested roads. (Along with some other premium cars.) But will they be able to do this in twenty years time? The challenge for them and the other premium brands is to continue building cars which discerning buyers will pay for. To do this, they will have to harness BEV skills and IT capabilities which don’t exist today. Will they do this by linking with IT companies? Probably!


I think at that point we need to look away from the technology and look at the consumer. There will be a luxury car segment, it is the nature of people for a variety of reasons to want more than 'basic'. So at what point will the premium be added? Tiffany doesn't have to mine and smelt their own gold, and they don't seem to have difficulty making money selling stuff made with the same ingredients Ratner's used. So even if there were only one company on the planet making electric drivetrains there's no reason why BMW couldn't make a profit refining them and sticking a nice snug cabin on top.

The article is very caught up in the supplier/producer relationship and a quest for dominance. Maybe it comes down to a matter of specialisation, and how many specialisations your size permits you to adequately fund. Given the choice between being third best at everything, or ruling one thing and getting paid for it whilst letting others get on with what they do better which offers the longest average time to failure. The sun sets on all empires, every company we discuss will one day go to zero. The best chance of a longer life for some of the smaller beasts might not be to try and rule the jungle, but to make sure that they are taking a percentage whoever does rule the jungle. If you produce 2.5m cars are year is it really realistic to try and take on Waymo and APTIV at AD, whilst trying to out platform VW, and inject your lifestyle client in to consumers lives more effectively than Apple, Google and Amazon? I would suggest it isn't.

Khan wants to make sure people to use "Hey Mercedes" when they order a pizza on the go and not other companies' services.


...really made me cringe. Is this really the best use of Daimler's resources? It isn't even credible. I'm not sure how many pizzas you order from your car, but the reason why Amazon, Apple and Google have reach in this area is because they are ubiquitous. I'd put money on the fact that 90% of people reading this are within 10 feet, of a device equipped with google assistant, alexa or i-thingy, many will be reading this on one. Mercedes sell under 2.5m cars a year. They are not ubiquitous. A Mercedes driver's next car might be another Mercedes, but it might well not be. An Android users next phone will almost certainly be an Android, same with Apple. Massive, stable user bases who are entrenched enough to invest their lifestyle in to one infrastructure. My phone is made by Samsung. It has a dedicated Bixby button which they've done their very best to prevent people reassigning much to the annoyance of many. It only ever gets hit by accident while your picking up the phone. Mercedes are not going to succeed where Samsung have failed. This is pure hubris.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262666

Postby BobbyD » November 6th, 2019, 10:04 pm

Tesla Hopes to Get China Carmaking License by Year-End


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd-denholm

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6324
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1520 times
Been thanked: 954 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262731

Postby odysseus2000 » November 7th, 2019, 10:34 am

Several points:

The good sales for the e-tron & similar are not indicative of a great model, but the consequence of heavy VW promotion and calling in favours. By contrast, if e.g. the E-tron sales stay high over the next year+ one can begin to say it is a hit or not.

The performance of the Porsche against the Tesla was informative. A newly designed sports car only just managed to beat a saloon car designed a decade before. This gives an indication of the lead that Tesla have.

The idea that someone who doesn’t spend more time in their car than with a partner can’t comprehend what it means to have a luxury car is an interesting idea. Generally the folk who live in their cars are sales people who like a boost to their ego from having some flashy motor, except this does not go down well with customers who feel they are paying for it and so sales folk are often compelled to have some mid range modest motor. Most of the folk i know with flashy motors don’t drive them much, home to office, golf club etc. Rarely do I see them being hoofed on long European trips. They are bought to confirm the individuals status to themselves, friends neighbour and most often in-laws. Behind every successful individual there is an astonished mother in law rings true many times and flash motors help with this. For any manufacturer there is often a basic widget that they want in the market and which is the main seller. But there are always folk who want something beyond basic as an ego enhancer and so manufactures usually create a range of premium products for these buyers. Often these products due to less scale have more troubles than the basic widgets, but folk will overlook all manner of things if what they are buying is an in favour make. I do this will my nano scale business knowing that I will make most of my income from the basic but will get some more prosperous folk who will want to spend more. Then comes the buyers dilema, should he or she stick with a legacy motor that potentially has more service and reliability or should they go for the new things which has street cred although perhaps less reliability. Some will put reliability as number 1, others want street cred and that’s about all there is to it. One doesn’t need to live in a car to understand this or own one. It is simple marketing as practiced since the invention of wealth. The general rule is that new comers usually trounce legacy.

Another area where folk seem confused is on what BEV mean to existing sellers. In general it means a significant curtailment in service and parts income, something that has become important streams of dosh for all motor makers. Additionally it means the demise of many of the auto suppliers who make stuff not needed in BEV and that means a whole lot of economic wow for Germany. One might expect that legacy auto would see such threats and adapt, the lesson from history is the opposite.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262733

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 10:46 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Several points:

The good sales for the e-tron & similar are not indicative of a great model, but the consequence of heavy VW promotion and calling in favours.


You do realise that even if you are right, which is far from a given, cars sold because of good marketing still count, or is this another rule we have to observe to avoid admitting that VW know what they are doing?

...oh, and who are favours being called in from?

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8178
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 912 times
Been thanked: 4078 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262752

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 11:38 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The idea that someone who doesn’t spend more time in their car than with a partner can’t comprehend what it means to have a luxury car is an interesting idea. Generally the folk who live in their cars are sales people who like a boost to their ego from having some flashy motor, except this does not go down well with customers who feel they are paying for it and so sales folk are often compelled to have some mid range modest motor. Most of the folk i know with flashy motors don’t drive them much, home to office, golf club etc. Rarely do I see them being hoofed on long European trips.

And there in a nutshell you have the problem with the electric car concept.

I used to drive about 30,000 miles a year, often 250 or more miles a day, sometimes in Europe and seldom with stops at places where I might be able to top up a battery.

The cars I drove had to be reliable, had to be left at airports for a week or more, and had to be capable of being driven at short notice.

That is where the electric car falls down.

TJH

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262767

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 12:28 pm

tjh290633 wrote:That is where the electric car falls down.


I have a relative who is convinced electric cars will fail for exactly the same reasons. What he can't understand is that the number of people with his requirements are vanishingly small, and BEV's will get by quite alright without him thank you very much.

Besides 250 miles in a day is not a problem you can do that without stopping if you buy an appropriate car and leave home with a full tank, places people stop will develop charging, and at <30 mins for a 20%-80% giving cars 600+ mile ranges stops will become trivial and soon unnoticed.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8178
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 912 times
Been thanked: 4078 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262799

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 3:00 pm

BobbyD wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:That is where the electric car falls down.


I have a relative who is convinced electric cars will fail for exactly the same reasons. What he can't understand is that the number of people with his requirements are vanishingly small, and BEV's will get by quite alright without him thank you very much.

Besides 250 miles in a day is not a problem you can do that without stopping if you buy an appropriate car and leave home with a full tank, places people stop will develop charging, and at <30 mins for a 20%-80% giving cars 600+ mile ranges stops will become trivial and soon unnoticed.

The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2574
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 552 times
Been thanked: 1212 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262805

Postby vrdiver » November 7th, 2019, 3:20 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

Where there's a problem, there's a solution (so I'm told).

With modern technology any smartphone user should be able to identify and, if necessary, reserve a charging point. I'm sure car parks will either install charging points, or more likely add a full charge as an extra service - like meet 'n' greet or off-airport parking where they will move the cars to minimise space requirements, it's perfectly feasible to add a workflow in to take a car to be charged whilst being stored. A quick google turned up https://www.holidayextras.co.uk/airport ... rging.html as an example.

In the transition phase, when BEVs are a small percentage of the UK fleet, this should work fine. As that percentage grows, the infrastructure will have time to grow with it. Modern apps should make it relatively easy to ensure the BEV users get what they need without too much drama or inconvenience.

The small fly in the ointment? Chicken-and-egg syndrome, where people like me won't switch to BEV without the infrastructure and the infrastructure investors won't commit until people like me switch, but even I see that that problem is shrinking as the early adopters on both sides are growing in numbers.

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262807

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 3:24 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH


Cafes and other retail locations love chargers, you might notice supermarkets have been an early source of charge points. Anything which encourages people with money to linger around tills...

For hotels it will become a competitive necessity if they rely on road traffic for customers, and again, worst case scenario, if your driving far enough to use a hotel rather than travel home you'll have driven past a fast charger...

If the office or factory you are visiting doesn't have the courtesy to provide a plug in then if you've travelled to far to do the round trip on a single charge you will invariably, or will soon have invariably driven past a fast charger to get there. Stop off for 20 minutes, have a coffee, finish the paperwork, and you're back on your way...

A charger at every long term spot would be a waste of money. However working out how to give every car a charge the day before it's owner returned wouldn't take an Einstein, whether you move the car to a charger, or a charger to the car. It might change how long term parking is run, but it's not actually difficult.

You can already see if chargers are occupied on a lot of networks, and coordination between cars in need of a charge and chargers should only get better and networks bigger, more inventive and more intensive. These might constitute uncertainties big enough to prevent people moving now, but they aren't going to prove long terms hurdles and they aren't typical requirements. They won't hold back BEV's and as BEV's become more ubiquitous their infrastructure will develop to eliminate them completely.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262814

Postby dspp » November 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm

I see a lot of Teslas parked in LHR and LGW car parks. Yes I'm sure they'd like to be plugged in on a 13A or 16A socket doing a slowcharge in their absence, but it doesn't seem to be preventing their adoption. My calcs are that for my use case a 300-mile range suffices for long term airport access.
regards, dspp

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8178
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 912 times
Been thanked: 4078 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262817

Postby tjh290633 » November 7th, 2019, 3:54 pm

The only places that I see public chargers are at the railway station. Cars plugged in and left all day. I see a BMW iQ plugged in outside its owner's residence, but off road. None at supermarkets or public car parks.

There is the odd Leaf or Tesla about, no doubt charged at home. The others are Milk and More's German milk floats, no doubt charged up at the dairy for the next day's runs.

We haven't really moved on far from the old milk float era.

TJH

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262828

Postby BobbyD » November 7th, 2019, 4:42 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The only places that I see public chargers are at the railway station. Cars plugged in and left all day. I see a BMW iQ plugged in outside its owner's residence, but off road. None at supermarkets or public car parks.

There is the odd Leaf or Tesla about, no doubt charged at home. The others are Milk and More's German milk floats, no doubt charged up at the dairy for the next day's runs.

We haven't really moved on far from the old milk float era.

TJH


We obviously live in quite different places. I don't drive, and so don't spend a lot of time around car parks or petrol stations but still know of 5 charge sites within walking distance including kerbside chargers, a supermarket, and a petrol station. The one place which doesn't have chargers is the railway station...

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 883 times
Been thanked: 1012 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#262836

Postby Howard » November 7th, 2019, 5:04 pm

vrdiver wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:The problem that I foresee is visiting an office or factory, where all the charging points are occupied by those working there, stopping at a cafe or hotel with no unused charging point, or maybe being on a ferry or in a long term car park, with no access to charging points, after a long drive. Maybe such problems will be soluble, but can you see the long term car parks at Heathrow or Gatwick with a charging point at every space.

TJH

Where there's a problem, there's a solution (so I'm told).

With modern technology any smartphone user should be able to identify and, if necessary, reserve a charging point. I'm sure car parks will either install charging points, or more likely add a full charge as an extra service - like meet 'n' greet or off-airport parking where they will move the cars to minimise space requirements, it's perfectly feasible to add a workflow in to take a car to be charged whilst being stored. A quick google turned up https://www.holidayextras.co.uk/airport ... rging.html as an example.

In the transition phase, when BEVs are a small percentage of the UK fleet, this should work fine. As that percentage grows, the infrastructure will have time to grow with it. Modern apps should make it relatively easy to ensure the BEV users get what they need without too much drama or inconvenience.

The small fly in the ointment? Chicken-and-egg syndrome, where people like me won't switch to BEV without the infrastructure and the infrastructure investors won't commit until people like me switch, but even I see that that problem is shrinking as the early adopters on both sides are growing in numbers.


You are right in principle. But BEVs only account for 1.4% of new cars purchased in the UK (up from 0.6% at this time last year). I'm guessing that most of those cars are second cars used for short journeys and generally they aren't cheap, so it may take a few more years for early adopters to make infrastructure investments worthwhile to support higher mileage business and commuter users. Of course our politicians will promise massive investments, but so far haven't done that much to encourage drivers to change.

regards

Howard

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests