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the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

Silverstar64
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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#250105

Postby Silverstar64 » September 7th, 2019, 12:19 pm

Quoting from RNS Number : 9745K

"NewRiver is holding a Capital Markets Day for analysts and institutional investors on 26 September 2019, during which the Company will provide further information on its current investment focus, demonstrate the alternative use value inherent within its portfolio of retail assets, and also provide an update on recent acquisition and disposal activity."

I hope this quote is acceptable as RNS is a public domain company regulatory announcement. Disposal update also in same RNS.

I'm encouraged and hope the capital markets day is a small catalyst for large investors.

torata
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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#250322

Postby torata » September 8th, 2019, 2:27 pm

Silverstar64 wrote:Quoting from RNS Number : 9745K
I hope this quote is acceptable as RNS is a public domain company regulatory announcement. Disposal update also in same RNS.


Perhaps it might be better to put the actual URL, so that people can read the whole if they choose to.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NRR/14211108.html

torata

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#250348

Postby BusyBumbleBee » September 8th, 2019, 5:21 pm

Silverstar64 wrote:Quoting from RNS Number : 9745K
"NewRiver is holding a Capital Markets Day for analysts and institutional investors on 26 September 2019, during which the Company will provide further information on its current investment focus, demonstrate the alternative use value inherent within its portfolio of retail assets, and also provide an update on recent acquisition and disposal activity."
I hope this quote is acceptable as RNS is a public domain company regulatory announcement. Disposal update also in same RNS..

I'm encouraged and hope the capital markets day is a small catalyst for large investors.

So yet again the PI is disadvantaged - analysts and institutional investors only. However, one hopes that no new information will be divulged there, as that would be giving inside information unless they give another RNS simultaneously.

SilverStar64 - I have shown you how to use a quote from the RNS which is quite acceptable here. No one's going to complain anyway as you were quoting an advertisement.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#250381

Postby Silverstar64 » September 8th, 2019, 7:07 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:SilverStar64 - I have shown you how to use a quote from the RNS which is quite acceptable here. No one's going to complain anyway as you were quoting an advertisement.

Thanks for the advice. I was overly cautious with the don't quote large amounts of text from a copyright source rule. As I don't know the status of RNS I played safe. As you can see I'm new here and want to follow the rules and fit in.

I had hoped the NRR event would be streamed as they routinely are in the US as I watched one recently but sadly not.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#251144

Postby BusyBumbleBee » September 11th, 2019, 6:19 pm

Well, if no one else is going to mention it: nice price rise today of 6% or thereabouts. Gives a cosy feeling (if you are a holder) but doesn't alter the fundamentals which in my view are still good.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#251224

Postby Silverstar64 » September 11th, 2019, 10:11 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:Well, if no one else is going to mention it: nice price rise today of 6% or thereabouts. Gives a cosy feeling (if you are a holder) but doesn't alter the fundamentals which in my view are still good.

I have watched the price, chart and trades as I do every day and while notoriously tricky to call it just might have found its bottom and now be on a gentle recovery. The recent bullish post on the fool site was pleasing, the short positions are reducing and i think Woodford has sold his position for liquidity.

It all comes down to whether the dividend can be covered by FFO and if yes then a re-rating is on the cards. If the dividend gets cut then it could continue to languish. I remain bullish for a number of reasons I have articulated in this thread and on Citywire forums but I accept there is a bear case. It's high risk but could pay off handsomely both in dividends and capital growth.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#251437

Postby gbjbaanb » September 12th, 2019, 4:51 pm

They say they are trying to get the FFO back to cover the dividend, the results (p8) have their plans mentioned - I think they are trying to significantly increase their asset management business for local authorities:

Local authorities have been encouraged to acquire real estate assets through a range of policies aimed at making them take a more enterprising and commercial approach to raising revenue, and through the inexpensive loans available to them through the Public Works Loans Board. Figures from PropertyData show thatl ocal authorities have acquired £4.8 billion of properties over the past three years, 16-times more than in the prior three years, and this includes£1.6 billion of retail property. Akey motivation for local authorities purchasing these assets is the desireto take greater control of their town centres and ensure they better meet the needs of their communities in the current retail environment. However, in most cases local authorities lack the personnel, expertise or relationships to successfully manage these assets on their own, and have turned to professional asset managers such as NewRiverto ensure income streams are sustainable. During the year, we signed two asset management agreements, with Canterbury City Council for Whitefriars Shopping Centre and with Market Harborough District Council for the management of two high street assets.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#254381

Postby BusyBumbleBee » September 27th, 2019, 4:20 pm

It is worth having a look at their presentation on "Capital Markets Day" (partly a Jolly for institutional investors I suspect) at https://www.nrr.co.uk/investor-center/financial-results - just click on the PDF icon next to 'Capital Markets Day' to open up the PDF.

I found the tables around "NewRiver Affordability vs Peers" particularly interesting.

The market seems to like it too as it is up 3% today.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#254944

Postby dealtn » September 30th, 2019, 3:49 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:It is worth having a look at their presentation on "Capital Markets Day" (partly a Jolly for institutional investors I suspect) at https://www.nrr.co.uk/investor-center/financial-results - just click on the PDF icon next to 'Capital Markets Day' to open up the PDF.

I found the tables around "NewRiver Affordability vs Peers" particularly interesting.

The market seems to like it too as it is up 3% today.


You think a trip to Grays and Canvey Island a "jolly"?

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#263957

Postby PrefInvestor » November 13th, 2019, 12:56 pm

Hi All, I keep an eye on how NRR is doing in my watchlists and I cant help but notice its suffering a major pullback at the moment, down to ~184ish. Would be interested to know the cause of whatever is going on. Admittedly I dont see the retail situation having improved one a whole lot, as borne out by INTU, HMSO & BLND share prices but it would be nice to understand specifically whats going on at NRR - if anyone knows ?.

Looking at a few other chat sites there seem to be theories about Invesco and/or Barnett possibly being forced sellers ?????

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#263982

Postby Alaric » November 13th, 2019, 1:59 pm

PrefInvestor wrote: but it would be nice to understand specifically whats going on at NRR - if anyone knows ?.


It recovered from its low point mid August of below 150 to go above 200 in October, but has since dropped back.

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stock ... E%24%24ALL

As to why? Wasn't it in the Woodford funds, but equally didn't those funds sell some while back?

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#264024

Postby PrefInvestor » November 13th, 2019, 5:46 pm

Alaric wrote:It recovered from its low point mid August of below 150 to go above 200 in October, but has since dropped back.

http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stock ... E%24%24ALL

As to why? Wasn't it in the Woodford funds, but equally didn't those funds sell some while back?


Hi Alaric, No I dont think its anything to do with Woodford now, see the chart and text below:-

Image

Pretty sure that Woodford was completely out even before I sold close to the bottom in mid August - thats my recollection anyway. Pretty sure him selling gave rise to that big sell spike in the volumes on the chart in July ?. Shares continue to drop thereafter.
Then on 16th Aug along came the Green King offer for their pub estate and magically the NRR price soared (I think because of the large number of pubs held by NRR, thats my theory anyway). That euphoria lasted till about the point when they went XD in mid October, see chart.
Since then they have just been sinking again, only major shareholders now according to the NRR website now are Invesco & Blackrock.

There have been a few RNSs describing changes in holdings by Invesco and Blackrock in Sep, Oct & Nov - but none seem to be of a significant size that I can see (not that I find them easy to interpret !).

According to shortracker.co.uk the outstanding shorts are slightly up but still less than 5%.

So why are they sinking and who exactly is selling I guess are the questions.

Academic for me as I am out now and staying out. Lost a few quid first time round and am definitely not up for a repeat performance. But doesn't stop me being interested in what occurring.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#264742

Postby BusyBumbleBee » November 16th, 2019, 1:53 pm

Hi Pref - I haven't changed my mind about this company since I posted this viewtopic.php?p=227592#p227592 - they will come through this and in the meanwhile I can continue with the dividends. Still a happy holder

with kind regards - BBB

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#264992

Postby PrefInvestor » November 17th, 2019, 4:56 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:Hi Pref - I haven't changed my mind about this company since I posted this viewtopic.php?p=227592#p227592 - they will come through this and in the meanwhile I can continue with the dividends. Still a happy holder

with kind regards - BBB


Hi BBB, Good to hear from you. I’m just keeping half an eye on what’s going on here and the rest of the REIT sector. Pretty dire results from the big boys, INTU, BLND & HMSO some of whom seem to be balling out of retail by repurposing. Might affect retail property valuations though ?. Lots of CVA activity too in their reports. It won’t have escaped your attention that the NRR share price has dropped by about 4 quarters worth of dividends since the mid October XD. Not quite sure what’s going on as it was going really well ?.

REIT sector as a whole seemed to get a boost by Boris Brexit deal and a few REITs have done OK eg RDI, RGL and WHR. Most others going nowhere though ?.

Elsewhere SWEF is doing OKish at just under my entry price but having paid a 1.625p dividend. RMDL much the same if slightly worse.

Renewables still doing OK. I have just sold all my UKW as I figured that 149 must surely be a top ?, dividend yield now ~4.5% and premium close to 20%. Planning on putting the money into NESF when they go XD soon where the numbers are a bit less extreme. Still thinking this sector is well placed myself given all the election emphasis on climate change.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#265170

Postby Gan020 » November 18th, 2019, 3:03 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:Hi All, I keep an eye on how NRR is doing in my watchlists and I cant help but notice its suffering a major pullback at the moment, down to ~184ish. Would be interested to know the cause of whatever is going on. Admittedly I dont see the retail situation having improved one a whole lot, as borne out by INTU, HMSO & BLND share prices but it would be nice to understand specifically whats going on at NRR - if anyone knows ?.

Looking at a few other chat sites there seem to be theories about Invesco and/or Barnett possibly being forced sellers ?????

ATB

Pref


If you look at BLND, HMSO etc. (the exception is INTU for reasons I don't understand) you can see they've all fallen on a short term timeframe. The CVA's continue and it's become a vicious circle. MTC are now in receivership so what was the point of the CVA? It just delayed the inevitable.

However, I have another theory. Woodford depressed the share price to 150p when he exited his complete position. I would suggest that many of these shares were picked up by short term traders who were looking for a quick 10% or whatever who would otherwise have no interest in NRR at all. So, we now know WEIF is liquidating. I'm not really following but I understand some of the liquidation is underway. And who will pick these shares up from WEIF? Well the same traders who bought NRR. So, they sell NRR and move on because they are looking at a another 10% flip or whatever and the success rate is likely very high whereas who knows where NRR is going next.

Or put another way when you have a load of short term traders who's maximum time horizon is about a month arrive, then the good traders get out near the top but even the average traders still see 185p as a result so there remains latent selling pressure.


Barnett is not a forced seller, although some posters (and the press) do seem to have it in for him on other sites. You can read Barnett's position here where you will see he is mostly invested in stocks with huge liquidity: https://www.invesco.co.uk/uk/news-and-i ... come-funds. Any redemptions if they occur can be funded by him choosing what to sell or selling a bit of everything.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#266086

Postby PrefInvestor » November 21st, 2019, 6:34 pm

Hi All, NRR HY results out today 21/11 and a summary can be viewed here

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 16903.html

Didn’t look good to me, but read it for yourself. Shares ended the day down 5.x%, was worse than that at one point.

This company has been turning capital into income just about as long as I’ve known it and seems to be continuing in that vein. They are clever asset managers I’m sure, but they still look to be losing ground based on my reading of this report. Lots of positive words in there, but the numbers don’t look good to me…….judge for yourself.

ATB

Pref
Last edited by PrefInvestor on November 21st, 2019, 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#266091

Postby Alaric » November 21st, 2019, 6:47 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:This company has been turning capital into income just about as long as I’ve known it and seems to be continuing in that vein.


Which is presumably why their dividend yield remains out of line with their peers.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#266111

Postby dealtn » November 21st, 2019, 8:27 pm

They don't look a bad set of numbers to me. NAV per share at 244 against a price of 180ish. Disposals made were at about 2% loss to book value, which given the portfolio was revalued down 3.3% over the period translates as (approx.) sold at book value to me.

It does make you wonder if anyone would ever consider the arbitrage of just buying one of these companies and undertaking a complete disposal programme at or about book value (and strip out all the management fees and director's salaries etc.) and book the potential profit of approx. 30%. It's probable a premium to current share price would be required to do this making it unlikely. It would be nice for Directors to make such noises but who would be willing to give up a salary and management fee and actually act in the best shareholders' interests?

As with much of the sector, I guess, it's one for the patient. Regardless you would hope for a bit more stability and forward thinking post-election and post uncertainty about Brexit.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#266158

Postby PrefInvestor » November 21st, 2019, 11:45 pm

dealtn wrote:They don't look a bad set of numbers to me. NAV per share at 244 against a price of 180ish. Disposals made were at about 2% loss to book value, which given the portfolio was revalued down 3.3% over the period translates as (approx.) sold at book value to me.


Hi dealtn, Well clearly you weren’t concerned with any of the following:-
a) The profit/loss figure
b) The dividend cover figure that they have given for the dividend that they have held (to try and protect the share price ?)
c) That many of their plans to bolster the dividend cover fall outside of the normal scope of REIT activities (and therefore according to REIT rules cannot constitute more than 5% of their operations)
d) The NAV change over the last 6 months
e) The high degree of exposure to retail (pubs being a much smaller element of their portfolio) with all that this implies given ongoing developments in retail.

If you are re-assured by the NAV figure given compared with the current share price then I suggest you consider that ratio in respect of other large REITS eg HMSO, BLND, LAND and yes INTU all of which exhibit large discounts.

I think that the management are good asset managers, but I still think they are looking at an uphill battle though myself. Especially on this set of figures.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#266182

Postby dealtn » November 22nd, 2019, 7:47 am

PrefInvestor wrote:
dealtn wrote:They don't look a bad set of numbers to me. NAV per share at 244 against a price of 180ish. Disposals made were at about 2% loss to book value, which given the portfolio was revalued down 3.3% over the period translates as (approx.) sold at book value to me.


Hi dealtn, Well clearly you weren’t concerned with any of the following:-
a) The profit/loss figure
b) The dividend cover figure that they have given for the dividend that they have held (to try and protect the share price ?)
c) That many of their plans to bolster the dividend cover fall outside of the normal scope of REIT activities (and therefore according to REIT rules cannot constitute more than 5% of their operations)
d) The NAV change over the last 6 months
e) The high degree of exposure to retail (pubs being a much smaller element of their portfolio) with all that this implies given ongoing developments in retail.

If you are re-assured by the NAV figure given compared with the current share price then I suggest you consider that ratio in respect of other large REITS eg HMSO, BLND, LAND and yes INTU all of which exhibit large discounts.

I think that the management are good asset managers, but I still think they are looking at an uphill battle though myself. Especially on this set of figures.

ATB

Pref


a) No
b) To some extent, it seems a bit silly to me, and especially so for a REIT, but Directors of listed companies are always releuctant to cut dividends so this doesn't make them unusual. The UK market in particular is overly fixated on (dividend) income, when other markets, and academic studies certainly, focus on total return, not how that return is delivered.
c) No, but I would say some plans, not many, but that's linguistic semantics.
d) No, in fact the opposite
e) No


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