odysseus2000 wrote:I continue to believe that cuts in German auto employment will lead to some very ugly situations for the auto makers & that there will be similar troubles in other car making countries like Italy & France. Japanese motors saw this coming & cut their UK factories.
It will be interesting to see if German Labour turns on Tesla Berlin & causes trouble for them.
China & Korea battery makers ought to do well as the scramble for batteries becomes a panic.
Imho the potential for existing legacy auto to make serious errors here is very large.
I still expect BMW to fail and/or be taken over or get government emergency money as their balance sheet looks too weak to me.
Tesla with its growing battery capability ought to do well, but I am nervous about how German labour will react to Tesla Berlin.
Regards,
I've always been amused by your and other's dire forecasts for major car manufacturers. And when actual facts are recorded here, if they are not positive for BEVs they are decried as FUD.
Like the stopped clock, Ody, your forecasts of doom for all ICE manufacturers over the last 10 years or so may eventually prove partly right. But it is equally likely that Tesla may yet again run out of cash. What do you think about their balance sheet? The fact is that their current models are struggling to achieve even a minor market share in virtually every country except the USA and they now have more vapourware models, like the truck, the semi, the model Y, the roadster than real models for sale.
We'll soon know how they are selling in China. But sales are dropping in promising markets of the past like Norway and other European countries (except the Netherlands where they are supported by huge subsidies which finish soon). The reality is that in most export markets they are just selling a few hundred cars a month. Their UK sales figures for November will be interesting - do you think they have a sustainable presence here or will the model 3 volumes continue to drop?
Yes, car manufacturers across the world are grappling with huge changes, but Tesla car sales are less than a rounding error in most markets and the volume sales of BEV models are yet to happen. Who knows the future, but they may need a lot more support from shareholders to be more than an interesting minor player.
regards
Howard