dealtn wrote:odysseus2000 wrote:How many folk do you need to talk to get an impression on quality and performance?
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In the end none of us know the future, it is all about probability.
Regards,
More than one that's for sure! I know precisely 2 people with an electric car. One is ambivalent, happy with the purchase but none more so than previous car purchases. The other underwhelmed, doesn't like the lack of noise, and hates the lack of charging points relative to the numerous petrol stations. Let's be generous and call that a 1-1 draw. Now if I went about making claims that 50% of electric car adopters hate electric cars I would rightly be laughed at for making a ridiculous extrapolation.
I have no axe to grind in this fight, I am not long or short any car companies as an investment, "new" or "old", but frankly the level of argument consistently made on this thread is far below the level of serious and hardly above childish at times.
You in particular will make claims about "probability" yet argue like it's binary! All of which is a shame as this thread should, for me, be about learning new things, which sadly is more difficult than it needs to be.
I welcome all contributions & if you have new things that you want to learn about then ask & see what answers you get.
However, remember this is all about investment which is about emotion which is fickle & changes in a moment & is manipulated by everyone.
Investment/trading is unlike most other human endeavours in that there are no rules, no laws & total uncertainty about the future, the closest analogues are politics & war.
My basic argument is that there is a secular change taking place from ICE to BEV & imho that is now unstoppable & it will hurt legacy & make a lot of money for Tesla equity holders.
In parallel with that there is a secular change taking place from fossil & nuclear generation to renewables & storage & that too I believe is unstoppable & will make even more money for Tesla.
Coming along shortly too are two other secular changes: Robotics & AI, the latter will also imho make a shed load of money for Tesla.
If you study industrial revolutions you find that the folk riding the new wave nearly always destroy legacy.
If you don't believe me then why am I wrong?
If as many folk here believe that Porsche can continue to make huge margins from ICE whilst developing BEV & selling it at -ve margins then fine.
My own experience from practical business that I run is that unless you have some very deep moat, like Apple, then large margins bring competitors. Porsche imho would be better off lowering prices to keep competitors at bay, but they are imho getting greedy & that sin is usually punished in capitalism.
Still, what do you believe, where do you think the largest equity gains can be made?
Regards,