Musk endeavours

[redsturgeon]

For anyone interested, I am now out of all my Tesla with the hope of buying it back at lower prices, something I don't always manage and have to rebuy higher than I sold, but we shall see.

Regards,

Well done on banking some good gains!

[Howard]

For anyone interested, I am now out of all my Tesla with the hope of buying it back at lower prices, something I don't always manage and have to rebuy higher than I sold, but we shall see.

Regards,

Congratulations on a good run! I know nothing about trading but you may have got out at the top, for the moment at least. I hope you are now not going to join the shorters .

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Thanks for all the kind words.

It has been a fabulous run and I am well ahead of the profits I made last year with not 2 months gone, but this can all change.

Ever since I was at Uni I became convinced that fuel transport by hydrocarbons was silly for several reasons: Pollution, using finite resources, geopolitical uncertainty in the fuel source, gross inefficiency of ICE etc.

It was only when Tesla began to make electric cars that I began to believe things would change and it became clear to me that Musk understood both the physics, making his cars as good as they could be, and also the business of selling: Creating the top down approach while everyone else was trying the bottom up approach and making the cars safe and creating the charging infrastructure.

From an investor/tranders perspective, this imho is now a shorters market were for the moment results do no matter. I was trading meggit this morning (small size) after good results and the gap down. It reversed up as the results were digested and that was good for me taking a few bob off Igindex, but then the good results were all forgotten and the shares dived, tried again to rally and dived again.

These kinds of emotional dumps are loved by shorts as the price action is fast and deep, but for Tesla I still like the story too much to want to short it. However, many do want to short it, although there was no hit to Tesla on this report of the NTSB slamming Tesla:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545422-t ... ent=link-3

Nor have their been hits to Tesla on the coming trial where Musk is being accused of misleading investors in the purchase of Solar City, he is being defended by the same attorney who won the case over the British diver who Musk called a Paedo.

Tesla may still be a Teflon stock and defy the markets general down turn, or someone might find a solution to corvid-19 and cause the whole market to rip up.

Shortly there will be battery day too and that could be very big if Tesla have found a way to speed the production of batteries or have some other tricks that they can pull out. I am seeing some folk arguing that batteries can't be improved and that this is the Achilles heel of BEV. I doubt that as battery tech is new and there are only now serious research programs into batteries and new variants like solid state batteries.

For investors/traders it is all about price and movement. These kinds of emotional markets tend to be very fast and very profitable if one gets on the right side and vice versa on the wrong side.

Regards,

[Howard]

Teslarati articles often need to be taken with a pinch of salt. If this one is correct, VW are continuing to have problems with their ID range software. This has been rumoured for some months and time will tell if the journalists have got it right. One or two of the comments add some interesting theories as well.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... nary-tale/

regards

Howard

[redsturgeon]

Yes it seems like VW are having real problems. On a very simple basis there is something that I don't understand. VW have a completely electric Golf, it works, it doesn't seem to throw up lots of new faults every day. It has all of the legacy stuff and more that needs to be incorporated into the electric management systems...why does it not experience the same issue as the ID3. Similarly the e-tron and the Taycan.

John

[dspp]

Yes it seems like VW are having real problems. On a very simple basis there is something that I don't understand. VW have a completely electric Golf, it works, it doesn't seem to throw up lots of new faults every day. It has all of the legacy stuff and more that needs to be incorporated into the electric management systems...why does it not experience the same issue as the ID3. Similarly the e-tron and the Taycan.

John

Similar info is leaking out of other sources, and as usual it is the insider comments that are more interesting than the articles themselves.

The eGolf is a legacy car with batteries in the boot etc. It is built like all other legacy cars using tier 1, 2, 3 parts all with their own uncommunicative controllers. Ditto the etron, taycan, etc. The mercedes one even has a transmission tunnel in it.

The ID3 attempts to position VW as taking control of the software and ALL the electrical/electronic hardware, and do the deep integration required. This has huge implications, not the least restructuring the culture of a company and its supplier chain (most of whom will go bust if VAG succeed). It is proving challenging .... it is indeed a Nokia burning platform moment. But it is a necessary step and VW are to be applauded for at least trying. Tesla have a (approx) 15-year headstart in this, so the legacy folks have a lot of catching up to do .....

The above is separate from the issue of battery supply & availability, but there are connections. The deep integration is required to reduce costs, reduce electrical loads, increase km/kWh efficiency, reduce weight, volume, partcount. It all goes together. Again the legacy folks have a lot of catching up to do ....

The battery supply issues are killing etron & taycan, as well as the ID3. The integration issues are killing the ID3. VW have to get this right. Of the other legacy dino juicers only Nissan/Renault seem to be making a serious attempt to even try.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

Yes it seems like VW are having real problems. On a very simple basis there is something that I don't understand. VW have a completely electric Golf, it works, it doesn't seem to throw up lots of new faults every day. It has all of the legacy stuff and more that needs to be incorporated into the electric management systems...why does it not experience the same issue as the ID3. Similarly the e-tron and the Taycan.

John

If you look at the comment by Mike Ceranski below the article, this backs up dspp's comment above. I don't claim any expertise, but can see the point MC is making. This is an excerpt.

"In my opinion, the root software problem isn't new code. It's legacy code that is embedded in function specific devices -- often called "PLCs", short for Programmable Logic Controller. PLCs are hardware devices perfectly suited for handling all the functionality for a specific set of tasks like windshield / washer operations. This sounds like a real time-saver but it can cause MAJOR issues if integrated into a BEV operating system. When the wipers automatically fire, or are turned on manually by the driver, that voltage request must be sent and approved by the BEV battery management system (specifically the electrical / battery sub-system) to ensure there's enough electricity for everything happening in the vehicle. Imagine a coder who doesn't fully understand all possible electrical actions/states of the legacy windshield PLC and therefore doesn't cover all possible voltage needs, much less simple error states (ie, the washer fluid is empty). The legacy windshield PLC probably wasn't designed or built by VW but by a sub-contractor who likely never considered a thorough API for their windshield PLC much less a fully functional & documented two-way API that would allow complete communication between a BEV's opsys and the windshield PLC."

As a layman I'm not sure this is a valid comparison, but I have two friends who recently took part in a transatlantic sailing race. Both went in brand new, very expensive and sophisticated yachts and both had serious problems with the electronics en route. Both problems were caused by an additional bit of kit being connected into the power supply to the boats electronic "brain" by subcontractors. There were no immediate problems in calm Spanish waters when the boat's systems were tested but In transatlantic conditions the drain on the computer power supply caused malfunctions. One was very serious as it caused the auto steering system to fail unexpectedly. Luckily, one of the crew was an experienced marine electronics expert who found the issue and corrected it by disconnecting the ancillary item. As I understand it, a key control in the software was disrupted by an unexpected tiny amount of power being taken from the wrong place at the wrong time by a minor bit of kit.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

A small cyber truck:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertr ... g-strategy

Apparently Musk did not know about this, but liked it anyway, according to his tweet.

Regards,

[Wuffle]

' Tesla have a (approx) 15-year headstart in this'

I have issue with this point.
Tesla started from zero but oddly didn't produce a Model T.
They poached a load of staff from existing car makers and were only a bit behind the curve on basic car stuff.
Dyson did the same recently and were poaching engineers left right and centre before giving up.
They can be poached back.
Behind, yes, but 15 years?

W.

[odysseus2000]

' Tesla have a (approx) 15-year headstart in this'

I have issue with this point.
Tesla started from zero but oddly didn't produce a Model T.
They poached a load of staff from existing car makers and were only a bit behind the curve on basic car stuff.
Dyson did the same recently and were poaching engineers left right and centre before giving up.
They can be poached back.
Behind, yes, but 15 years?

W.

There is no T in sexy, hence no model T, but anyhow that trademark is owned by Ford as is model e, hence the 3.

Many legacy motors, notably German marks copying Peugeot, adopted a policy of selling cars near to break even, or a loss like the insurance industry, making all their profits from spares & repairs beyond the lease period.

For legacy to catch up they have to both make competive BEV & source competitive battery, take a big hit writing off existing production capacity, take another big hit re-tooling for BEV, deal with all the union problems & see their existing spare parts business similtaneously collapse.

How long is this likely to take if it is possible? The answer for some like BMW imho is that they are now unable to recover.

Engineers in the industry know all of this, so that tempting a Tesla engineer to leave needs a lot of doing, especially if to move, he or she loses stock options.

Before too long I believe industrial historians will cite Legacy car business as a classic case of how not to react to changes in technology & competitors.

We are imho in the beginnings of a major industrial collapse which will wreck Legacy motors & lead to substantial political & social problems. The management of Legacy motors have been ridiculously complacent & now, as usual, it will be the workers who end up in a very bad situation & they will not be easily fobbed off with empty promises.

Regards,

[Howard]

' Tesla have a (approx) 15-year headstart in this'

I have issue with this point.
Tesla started from zero but oddly didn't produce a Model T.
They poached a load of staff from existing car makers and were only a bit behind the curve on basic car stuff.
Dyson did the same recently and were poaching engineers left right and centre before giving up.
They can be poached back.
Behind, yes, but 15 years?

W.

There is no T in sexy, hence no model T, but anyhow that trademark is owned by Ford as is model e, hence the 3.

Many legacy motors, notably German marks copying Peugeot, adopted a policy of selling cars near to break even, or a loss like the insurance industry, making all their profits from spares & repairs beyond the lease period.

For legacy to catch up they have to both make competive BEV & source competitive battery, take a big hit writing off existing production capacity, take another big hit re-tooling for BEV, deal with all the union problems & see their existing spare parts business similtaneously collapse.

How long is this likely to take if it is possible? The answer for some like BMW imho is that they are now unable to recover.

Engineers in the industry know all of this, so that tempting a Tesla engineer to leave needs a lot of doing, especially if to move, he or she loses stock options.

Before too long I believe industrial historians will cite Legacy car business as a classic case of how not to react to changes in technology & competitors.

We are imho in the beginnings of a major industrial collapse which will wreck Legacy motors & lead to substantial political & social problems. The management of Legacy motors have been ridiculously complacent & now, as usual, it will be the workers who end up in a very bad situation & they will not be easily fobbed off with empty promises.

Regards,

Ody

How many more ICE cars do you think will be manufactured worldwide over the next 20 years?

Obviously this is a silly question if taken too seriously. But I have seen forecasts of another 2 billion ICE cars being made before 2040. With much cleaner engines than now.

This forecast may prove to be totally wrong, but it suggests that there are large profits still to be made from ICE technology. Especially as BEVs are so much more expensive to manufacture. Would you like to suggest what you think the figure would be in very round terms? This would give us an idea of why you think legacy manufacturers will fail so quickly.

The rise in sales of BEVs is obviously helped by massive government subsidies. I just wonder if Germany will let companies like VW crash and burn in the way you suggest or will they influence the EU to give a little more help to these companies by relaxing regulations over the next 20 years.

regards

Howard

[dspp]

As a layman I'm not sure this is a valid comparison, but I have two friends who recently took part in a transatlantic sailing race. Both went in brand new, very expensive and sophisticated yachts and both had serious problems with the electronics en route. Both problems were caused by an additional bit of kit being connected into the power supply to the boats electronic "brain" by subcontractors. There were no immediate problems in calm Spanish waters when the boat's systems were tested but In transatlantic conditions the drain on the computer power supply caused malfunctions. One was very serious as it caused the auto steering system to fail unexpectedly. Luckily, one of the crew was an experienced marine electronics expert who found the issue and corrected it by disconnecting the ancillary item. As I understand it, a key control in the software was disrupted by an unexpected tiny amount of power being taken from the wrong place at the wrong time by a minor bit of kit.

regards

Howard

This is what we engineers, especially those amongst us who are systems engineers, and very especially amongst those of us who are into power/energy know only too well.

My colleagues & contemporaries fled legacy auto. Many of them are now working at Tesla. I see the job adverts circulating amongst my alumni network. They are all fleeing the dark side.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Ody

How many more ICE cars do you think will be manufactured worldwide over the next 20 years?

Obviously this is a silly question if taken too seriously. But I have seen forecasts of another 2 billion ICE cars being made before 2040. With much cleaner engines than now.

This forecast may prove to be totally wrong, but it suggests that there are large profits still to be made from ICE technology. Especially as BEVs are so much more expensive to manufacture. Would you like to suggest what you think the figure would be in very round terms? This would give us an idea of why you think legacy manufacturers will fail so quickly.

The rise in sales of BEVs is obviously helped by massive government subsidies. I just wonder if Germany will let companies like VW crash and burn in the way you suggest or will they influence the EU to give a little more help to these companies by relaxing regulations over the next 20 years.

regards

Howard

I have no idea how many ICE cars will be made, but by 2035 as I understand UK government announcements, no one will be able to buy a new ICE or hybrid car in the UK.

If robotic driving really arrives then the number of cars needed will fall substantially.

What I see is a continuing complacency among Legacy auto that they will be helped by governments and not allowed to fail. Maybe they will, but as i look at things now any rescue will involve consequences that Legacy investors will not like.

My most likely scenario I see as of now, is year on year declines in ICE sales along side year on year growth in BEV sales. I expect new entrants to the BEV market, likely licensing Tesla tech and with dramatic build out of battery factories, with out all the Legacy overheads and that these new business will eat Legacies lunch.

IMHO we are close to a situation where the world enters a civilian spend of magnitude similar to that involved in a military build up so as to satisfy the generation wide desire to make war on CO2 producers.

Not only would such a spend satisfy all the folk fretting about CO2, it would also create a huge injection of money into the economy as does all war preparations with continuing benefits as instead of all this spend being used to destroy things it instead creates on going wealth in new industries, including decommissioning and recycling business.

I think the danger for investors/traders here is one of underestimating human desire to rid ourselves on ICE tech.

Regards,

[tjh290633]

If robotic driving really arrives then the number of cars needed will fall substantially.

I wouldn't bank on that, ody. There may be fewer needed in major conurbations, but elsewhere they are essential.

TJH

[odysseus2000]

If robotic driving really arrives then the number of cars needed will fall substantially.

I wouldn't bank on that, ody. There may be fewer needed in major conurbations, but elsewhere they are essential.

TJH

Yes, I would agree, but I find I don't bother shopping for consumer goods now, simply ordering them on-line and waiting for them to come. There are so few shops left anyway that there is not a lot I can buy in town.

For the moment I do go for groceries and also wood, steel, cement etc for various projects, but most of the time my car is idle.

If I could get a reliable and low cost robot-taxi service that came when I wanted, would I then need a car, or be happy to pay for the fuel, road tax and insurance?

Another person who has to drive to get to work or to take children to school, or with a busy social life might be more reliant on a car, but if robotic driving becomes widely available at low cost and it is demonstrably much safer than human driving, leading to hefty rises in self drive insurance, would many people still buy a car?

Regards,

[Howard]

Ody

How many more ICE cars do you think will be manufactured worldwide over the next 20 years?

Obviously this is a silly question if taken too seriously. But I have seen forecasts of another 2 billion ICE cars being made before 2040. With much cleaner engines than now.

This forecast may prove to be totally wrong, but it suggests that there are large profits still to be made from ICE technology. Especially as BEVs are so much more expensive to manufacture. Would you like to suggest what you think the figure would be in very round terms? This would give us an idea of why you think legacy manufacturers will fail so quickly.

The rise in sales of BEVs is obviously helped by massive government subsidies. I just wonder if Germany will let companies like VW crash and burn in the way you suggest or will they influence the EU to give a little more help to these companies by relaxing regulations over the next 20 years.

regards

Howard

I have no idea how many ICE cars will be made, but by 2035 as I understand UK government announcements, no one will be able to buy a new ICE or hybrid car in the UK.

If robotic driving really arrives then the number of cars needed will fall substantially.

What I see is a continuing complacency among Legacy auto that they will be helped by governments and not allowed to fail. Maybe they will, but as i look at things now any rescue will involve consequences that Legacy investors will not like.

My most likely scenario I see as of now, is year on year declines in ICE sales along side year on year growth in BEV sales. I expect new entrants to the BEV market, likely licensing Tesla tech and with dramatic build out of battery factories, with out all the Legacy overheads and that these new business will eat Legacies lunch.

IMHO we are close to a situation where the world enters a civilian spend of magnitude similar to that involved in a military build up so as to satisfy the generation wide desire to make war on CO2 producers.

Not only would such a spend satisfy all the folk fretting about CO2, it would also create a huge injection of money into the economy as does all war preparations with continuing benefits as instead of all this spend being used to destroy things it instead creates on going wealth in new industries, including decommissioning and recycling business.

I think the danger for investors/traders here is one of underestimating human desire to rid ourselves on ICE tech.

Regards,

Around 100 million cars are made per year at the moment. Around 99.5% are powered by ICE.

Looking at your forecast from a UK perspective, the British Government can state grand policies on BEV adoption but the decline in UK car manufacturing is pretty bloody at the moment. If, as you suggest, they want to completely destroy our current legacy car manufacturers, it’s difficult to see where UK citizens will buy BEVs from in 10 years’ time. If it takes 15 years to develop serious BEVs as has been suggested then it’s too late for a UK industry to grow to meet the challenge?

So if the logic is that foreign firms like Tesla will supply the UK demand then you are suggesting that the UK government will spend hundreds of billions on infrastructure for the benefit of foreign car manufacturers which they subsidise by providing cheap electricity? It’s unlikely that the average voting UK taxpayer and motorist will be happy about this.

The costs of implementing a BEV-only policy in plenty of time for 2035 and introducing robotic cars will be staggering. One only has to look at the delays in implementing HS2 and other railway projects to get a rough idea of how successful the government will be.

If robotic cars are a sensible option in the timescale you are suggesting then HS2 is a really silly idea. It will siphon off probably up to £200 billion of funds which could have been used for robocars infrastructure. The government’s advisors don’t think a robotic transport network is likely before 2035. They may be wrong but for this reason the expensive UK BEV timetable might slip a little.

And the big car producing countries like the US and Germany may also be reluctant to destroy their car manufacturers for the benefit of foreign firms. It’s possible that they may allow continued production of lower-polluting ICE vehicles for longer than you think.

There is a marketing hurdle which robotic cars will have to jump and it won’t be easy. Most motorists could afford to travel by public transport much more than they do. But we don’t like sharing! The thought of getting into a robocar with other people’s rubbish under the seats doesn’t appeal. We don’t have a basic desire to use utilitarian shared vehicles. It’s nice to have our own car and be independent. A major reason smartphones caught on is that they are status symbols - often with a personalised case. And very easy for private sector investment to support. Getting the bus doesn’t impress our neighbours. If robocars are as clean as Swiss trams and buses, yes, maybe they will be used but in the UK travelling to Birmingham in a convoy of utility vehicles may not be quite as pleasant as driving there in one’s new Toyota.

So, yes,BEVs may increase their 0.5% market share of the 100,000,000 cars produced in the world each year. But while they are much more expensive to produce that still leaves a lot for ICE manufacturers and the clever ones will be making profits for a number of years yet.

regards

Howard

PS Car manufacturing numbers are from

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262 ... ince-2000/

[dspp]

H,

Do the maths. Look at the evidence.

UK car design has gone. UK car mfg will go. Brexit makes that even more obvious, unless the current administration spaffs a big wodge into the Midlands. Er, state aid rules anyone ? There is a reason that red lines are being drawn ....

Any ICE manufacturer that wants a future needs to bet the farm, now. Otherwise the best they can hope for is to harvest the decline for maybe 5-years. After that ICE manufacturers will be begging to give away cars. Pretty much that demand collapse is already happening for BMW/Mercedes/Audi/etc already - just look at the growing Tesla-shaped wedge being taken out of the US top end. And we all know that most of the profit is in the nice creamy top end.

There isn't that much UK infrastructure required. You can probably do the next 10-years of UK BEV adoption (ie to the c.50% sales point) on the back of what is already installed : charging locations, grid reinforcement, renewables fraction of generation. And even more is going in every day. The UK is not the leading country, maybe at the bottom of the upper quartile. This is going on everywhere.

Below is one scenario for global renewables penetration in the energy landscape that I did (there are many scenarios). The corresponding ICE > BEV transition looks fairly similar but is faster (again, I have many scenarios in my goody bag). I suggest you sketch your own, then do the maths for the economics of a legacy ICE manufacturer. Pretty it ain't.

Pretty soon only the poor people will drive a dino juice car. Yesterday my GF and I were sitting in a 3, and discussing how far in the future it will be before Mummy would be too embarassed to collect Beatrice from school in a gas-mobile. It is coming soon.

regards, dspp

[Howard]

H,

Do the maths. Look at the evidence.

Any ICE manufacturer that wants a future needs to bet the farm, now. Otherwise the best they can hope for is to harvest the decline for maybe 5-years. After that ICE manufacturers will be begging to give away cars. Pretty much that demand collapse is already happening for BMW/Mercedes/Audi/etc already - just look at the growing Tesla-shaped wedge being taken out of the US top end. And we all know that most of the profit is in the nice creamy top end.

Pretty soon only the poor people will drive a dino juice car. Yesterday my GF and I were sitting in a 3, and discussing how far in the future it will be before Mummy would be too embarassed to collect Beatrice from school in a gas-mobile. It is coming soon.

regards, dspp

dspp

I don't disagree with your comments about the UK market. However, as you say above: "Look at the evidence". Your forecasts surely must be based on historical facts. I'm not sure you have the facts right about the US market. We have discussed this before and it is important to start with hard figures.

As I understand the facts, based on the broadly-accepted Insideevs estimates for Tesla’s U.S. unit sales, they only grew 0.3% in 2019, to 192,250 units from 191,687 in 2018. (And their turnover in the USA was down severely year on year).

Quoting from a review on seeking alpha:

"Several other luxury/premium car brands grew faster in the U.S. in 2019, including BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lincoln and Cadillac.

They all grew faster than Tesla both as measured in absolute units and as measured as a percentage.

In other words, even before we adjust for average selling prices - let alone profitability - Tesla lost market share to these competitors in the U.S. market in 2019."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/431806 ... king_alpha

As a BMW driver, I am possibly biased, but BMW had its best year ever for sales in the USA last year, growing faster than Tesla from a higher base.

You surely have to agree that forecasts should be based on current facts. And your statement above doesn't reflect the current situation. We'll see if Tesla can grow sales turnover in the USA this year, but they didn't last year and their competitors did!

I'm loath to make any forecasts but it wouldn't surprise me, looking at the European sales figures, if Tesla have a poor first quarter. Their sales in the UK should hopefully pick up substantially in February because of the massive UK subsidies but in January they were low. I haven't a clue what their US sales are this quarter, but they will have to be very high if they are to compensate for the collapse in sales in the Netherlands and Norway in the last two months.

Yes, Tesla are a threat to ICE manufacturers, but they have to start making profits and growing their US sales to really damage the premium brands. They may do it, but if it takes too long, the legacy manufacturers may manage to inhibit their success. Who knows, despite the avowed technical superiority of the Model 3 it may be discontinued in its present form before it ever turns a profit?

regards

Howard

[dspp]

H,

Do the maths. Look at the evidence.

Any ICE manufacturer that wants a future needs to bet the farm, now. Otherwise the best they can hope for is to harvest the decline for maybe 5-years. After that ICE manufacturers will be begging to give away cars. Pretty much that demand collapse is already happening for BMW/Mercedes/Audi/etc already - just look at the growing Tesla-shaped wedge being taken out of the US top end. And we all know that most of the profit is in the nice creamy top end.

Pretty soon only the poor people will drive a dino juice car. Yesterday my GF and I were sitting in a 3, and discussing how far in the future it will be before Mummy would be too embarassed to collect Beatrice from school in a gas-mobile. It is coming soon.

regards, dspp

dspp

I don't disagree with your comments about the UK market. However, as you say above: "Look at the evidence". Your forecasts surely must be based on historical facts. I'm not sure you have the facts right about the US market. We have discussed this before and it is important to start with hard figures.

As I understand the facts, based on the broadly-accepted Insideevs estimates for Tesla’s U.S. unit sales, they only grew 0.3% in 2019, to 192,250 units from 191,687 in 2018. (And their turnover in the USA was down severely year on year).

Quoting from a review on seeking alpha:

"Several other luxury/premium car brands grew faster in the U.S. in 2019, including BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lincoln and Cadillac.

They all grew faster than Tesla both as measured in absolute units and as measured as a percentage.

In other words, even before we adjust for average selling prices - let alone profitability - Tesla lost market share to these competitors in the U.S. market in 2019."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/431806 ... king_alpha

As a BMW driver, I am possibly biased, but BMW had its best year ever for sales in the USA last year, growing faster than Tesla from a higher base.

You surely have to agree that forecasts should be based on current facts. And your statement above doesn't reflect the current situation. We'll see if Tesla can grow sales turnover in the USA this year, but they didn't last year and their competitors did!

I'm loath to make any forecasts but it wouldn't surprise me, looking at the European sales figures, if Tesla have a poor first quarter. Their sales in the UK should hopefully pick up substantially in February because of the massive UK subsidies but in January they were low. I haven't a clue what their US sales are this quarter, but they will have to be very high if they are to compensate for the collapse in sales in the Netherlands and Norway in the last two months.

Yes, Tesla are a threat to ICE manufacturers, but they have to start making profits and growing their US sales to really damage the premium brands. They may do it, but if it takes too long, the legacy manufacturers may manage to inhibit their success. Who knows, despite the avowed technical superiority of the Model 3 it may be discontinued in its present form before it ever turns a profit?

regards

Howard

Howard,

I think you have to sift the evidence for apples-to-apples. In the premium saloon segment in USA then Tesla did impact the segment - I posted the numbers at various points a year ago I think. But buyer shifting to SUV gave the legacy a swerve. As more models get released then there will be a cross-segment wave. Until then it will be a confused picture. Amidst the confusion the legacy players are seeking refuge, hoping for a continuation of the paycheques.

Time will tell.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Interesting article on Aston Martin. They have experienced a fall in sales and have now put all their hopes into an SUV:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton ... 7d5b8179d8

They did have an electric car program but have decided not to put it into production according to autocar:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... ric-saloon

They were floated at £19.15 in 2019 and are now £3.42.

IMHO going for the SUV and not the battery car, although I can see why they did it, is likely a fatal decision.

If anyone wanted a short then Aston have been a near perfect vehicle with lower low after lower low. Sad!

Regards,