Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

[gryffron]

If the numbers are right and we have similar rates to Italy, Prince Charles has an 87.5% chance of surviving and likely better as he will have the best treatments possible and the best medics too.

AFAIK he has never been a smoker (unlike many Italians). Nor has he lived in a polluted industrial City. So I would suggest his chances are way higher than a "typical" Northern Italian, even before we consider the A1 healthcare he will no doubt receive.

Gryff

[zico]

It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.

[redsturgeon]

It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.

I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John

[zico]

I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John

Yes, it makes no sense, except when the number are very low indeed - say, less than 5 when family members might be able infer it was their critically ill relative who'd died. Implications of this are that the real UK deaths are very likely to be following a similar curve to Italy (similar situations, similar populations, same virus).

Italy may also be under-reporting. Town of Nembro near Bergamo, has had 158 deaths this year compared to 35 in comparable past years, but only 31 Covid-19 deaths. So that's 96 extra deaths from... something else?

[zico]

US jobless total just in at 3.3 million people.Their biggest rise in history. Analysts had been expecting anywhere between 250,000 and 2 million.

[77ss]

It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.

Do you have a reference to back this up?

[tikunetih]

Analysts had been expecting anywhere between 250,000 and 2 million.

The median forecast was in the 2.25-2.5M range (ie, it was rising rapidly), with the upper forecast around 4M.

As ever, more important than the number itself is how markets react to it.

[zico]

Links to Newsnight clip explaining the change in UK deaths reporting.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/ ... 0202818561

Links to the report on possible Italy under-reporting.

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/stat ... 0121618432

[Chrysalis]

It appears likely that UK deaths from Covid-19 are being under-reported.
Over the last 6 days, the daily deaths reported have shown no significant upwards trend, which seems very strange, because we know the daily cases reported were rising at between 22%-35% per day.

It turns out the Government is only publishing Covid-19 deaths when the consent of next-of-kin has been received. If consent is refused, or not chased-up (due to their being a crisis on) then published deaths will be lower than actual deaths.

I heard this too. Isn't it a bit strange that the government "needs" the consent of next of kin to add your anonymous death to a total number. Is that really true , if your next of kin is murdered or dies in a traffic incident, do we not report the numbers unless you consent...I call BS.

John

It’s not needed. There is no data protection for dead people, and no consent is needed to publish death statistics.

[77ss]

Links to Newsnight clip explaining the change in UK deaths reporting.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/ ... 0202818561

Links to the report on possible Italy under-reporting.

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/stat ... 0121618432

Thanks. I don't care to rely on twitter,but given your clue I found a more reputable source:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... in-england

The relevant extract, from a Downing Street lobby briefing:

The spokesman confirmed that the way UK coronavirus deaths are recorded and made public is changing (see 11.07am), but he was unable to give details of how. He said Public Health England was moving to a different reporting time. Yesterday was “a crossover day” in the way they were recording the numbers, he said. But he was unable to explain what would change.

Moderator Message:
Sorry to butt in, but please avoid political asides here. Go to PD for that. I've deleted the last sentence for you. I am as guilty as anyone btw. regards, dspp

[jackdaww]

US markets have been rallying, could be a dead cat bounce, but Trump seems certain that the US can be opened up by Easter:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

This all feels wild, but the rally in the US markets get me wondering if Trump is all bluster or whether he has something up is sleeve that major market players are privy too.

Is there anything that the US can do that might make an Easter opening of the US possible?

Of the things that Trump might have, the most likely to me seems like a vaccine, perhaps one developed for another illnes which has been tested and approved that they are finding is 100% effective for c19.

Another potential solution would be if they believe they have some method to clean the air and furniture for big events like church services.

The UK and the rest of the world is fixated on isolation and flattening the curve and this seems the best option to me, but I am relying on what folk are telling me. I have no specialist knowledge in any of this. Does anyone have more specific knowledge.

Trump knows that if he screws up here he loses the election, but if he gets the US back to work by Easter he walks it.

Regards,

====================

canute thought he could stop the tide .... trump thinks he can stop the virus.....

[dspp]

US markets have been rallying, could be a dead cat bounce, but Trump seems certain that the US can be opened up by Easter:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

This all feels wild, but the rally in the US markets get me wondering if Trump is all bluster or whether he has something up is sleeve that major market players are privy too.

Is there anything that the US can do that might make an Easter opening of the US possible?

Of the things that Trump might have, the most likely to me seems like a vaccine, perhaps one developed for another illnes which has been tested and approved that they are finding is 100% effective for c19.

Another potential solution would be if they believe they have some method to clean the air and furniture for big events like church services.

The UK and the rest of the world is fixated on isolation and flattening the curve and this seems the best option to me, but I am relying on what folk are telling me. I have no specialist knowledge in any of this. Does anyone have more specific knowledge.

Trump knows that if he screws up here he loses the election, but if he gets the US back to work by Easter he walks it.

Regards,

====================

canute thought he could stop the tide .... trump thinks he can stop the virus.....

That is incorrect. Canute knew kings & princes could not stop the tide or many similar forces, but he was proving that point to his courtiers. Many, like many readers of history since, failed to get the point.

Trump is one such

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

This is fascinating, a CEO of a ventilator company in full flight about how he is being treated badly, not getting orders, no help with this that and other.

Kinda of missed the point that its not about taking telephone calls, filling in web pages, but about going and banging on every politician door he can find, blitzing the media with a long list of what he needs and becoming such a pain that the politicians give him money to get rid of him and so they can say how they are supporting British industry:

https://twitter.com/mmaher70/status/124 ... 07426?s=20

Dyson, Musk et al, might make a mess of the contract they are getting, but they are using contacts, making waves and lots of noise and giving the impression that they really want to help.

Regards,

[PeterGray]

giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.

[odysseus2000]

giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.

Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

In times of trouble like this it is the duty of the CEO of a company that thinks it can help, to lobby politicians and media and make sure that he or she is heard and to have a long shopping list of what he or she can do and what they need.

It is not, imho, the job of the the CEO to be as quiet and humble as a church mouse, filling in web pages etc and then coming on a media show as though the politicians should have come to his door and been over flowing with gifts and money.

The world does not work like that.

Regards,

[servodude]

Italy may also be under-reporting. Town of Nembro near Bergamo, has had 158 deaths this year compared to 35 in comparable past years, but only 31 Covid-19 deaths. So that's 96 extra deaths from... something else?

could be under-reporting
- could be what happens when your health system is swamped

- sd

[servodude]

giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.

Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

In times of trouble like this it is the duty of the CEO of a company that thinks it can help, to lobby politicians and media and make sure that he or she is heard and to have a long shopping list of what he or she can do and what they need.

It is not, imho, the job of the the CEO to be as quiet and humble as a church mouse, filling in web pages etc and then coming on a media show as though the politicians should have come to his door and been over flowing with gifts and money.

The world does not work like that.

Regards,

It should be the job of the Govt to ensure that the best job gets done for the people
- Jim Dyson has enough engineering and manufacturing experience to realise there are more efficient and practical (and validated) ways to create ventilators quickly than starting from scratch

At best this sounds like a distraction; a big smoke and mirrors "look at what we're doing" cause that everyone can get behind; that could be a worthwhile exercise for morale

Alternatively if they have chosen this path without first having called every ventilator manufacturer in the country to see about increasing capacity, it might just be a cynical cash-in

- sd

[redsturgeon]

giving the impression that they really want to help

Quite. Musk certainly has form on this.

The news media are lapping up Dyson, who is clearly good at self promotion, but there's something a little odd in the govt showing no interest when contacted by an existing, experienced, medical parts manufacturer, when they are supposed to be buying respirators like no tomorrow. There are a several people in the business, or or working with people on the medical side who have developed easy to make respirator designs, others who have apparently offered, yet everyone is wetting themselves about a vacuum manufacturer.

Don't get me wrong, we need respirators badly, and anyone coming up with a workable solution should be welcomed. But if media celebrity fixation leads to what may well not the be best option being picked than we all lose out.

Yes, this was the point I was trying to make.

In times of trouble like this it is the duty of the CEO of a company that thinks it can help, to lobby politicians and media and make sure that he or she is heard and to have a long shopping list of what he or she can do and what they need.

It is not, imho, the job of the the CEO to be as quiet and humble as a church mouse, filling in web pages etc and then coming on a media show as though the politicians should have come to his door and been over flowing with gifts and money.

The world does not work like that.

Regards,

It should be the job of the Govt to ensure that the best job gets done for the people
- Jim Dyson has enough engineering and manufacturing experience to realise there are more efficient and practical (and validated) ways to create ventilators quickly than starting from scratch

At best this sounds like a distraction; a big smoke and mirrors "look at what we're doing" cause that everyone can get behind; that could be a worthwhile exercise for morale

Alternatively if they have chosen this path without first having called every ventilator manufacturer in the country to see about increasing capacity, it might just be a cynical cash-in

- sd

It seems like parallel streams have been pursued with one consortium looking at building to existing design and upping production of those, then the innovative groups looking at new solution and also looking to source ventilators internationally.

That seems a sensible approach, although the implementation seem to has been less than perfect.

John

[odysseus2000]

It should be the job of the Govt to ensure that the best job gets done for the people
- Jim Dyson has enough engineering and manufacturing experience to realise there are more efficient and practical (and validated) ways to create ventilators quickly than starting from scratch

At best this sounds like a distraction; a big smoke and mirrors "look at what we're doing" cause that everyone can get behind; that could be a worthwhile exercise for morale

Alternatively if they have chosen this path without first having called every ventilator manufacturer in the country to see about increasing capacity, it might just be a cynical cash-in

- sd

It will be all panic and confusion with makers and civil servants both extremely wary of each other. In the by and by working relations will develop with the payers knowing who is delivering and the makers knowing that they will get the support they need.

During this phase it is important for any maker to get themselves well known to the folk that matter and to then deliver on what is promised. It is very unlikely that civil servants will bother with anyone who isn't proactive and aggressive in promoting what his/her business can do.

Regards,

[vagrantbrain]

I think the government are going about sourcing ventilators the right way - it's all well and good with all these companies and groups claiming they've got a fantastic ventilator but they need to be approved, available in numbers and crucially, users need training on the equipment. Having relativity small amounts of a number of different designs is a recipe for human error with a tired and stressed NHS workforce. There is also maintenance when units inevitably break down and it's just not possible to train maintenance staff on multiple different designs in such a short time period. What we need is a large amount of ventilators of a common or similar design, and the large manufacturing companies can provide this.

I thought the criticism of the government over the EU scheme was wrong - we've developed a strategy, started pursuing it then some people think we should just stop and start again with the EU. I'll bet these are the same people who would scream about government wasting money if they did drop our scheme and join the EU one. People also seem to forget that every country in the world is desperate for them at the moment so we can't just buy up every ventilator going. Drager for example are already saying their production is being allocated as required not first-come-first-served:

"As a global company, Dräger has a moral obligation to take into account the severity of the outbreak and the need for product in different countries, while making decisions on how to allocate product. Dräger UK are in constant contact with a special task force put in place at our global headquarters in Lübeck who allocate and prioritise the high amount of orders and requests."