SalvorHardin wrote:2) US dollar vs Sterling. I've long held the view that over the long term sterling will decline against the dollar. America has a big advantage with the world using the dollar as it's reserve currency and safe haven, whilst Britain is addicted to devaluing its currency and running a current account deficit. I see nothing to change this. The rise of China will make more people nervous, favouring the dollar. Short term, I haven't a clue. I recently moved some dollars back into sterling at just below $1.20 to £1, but that was driven more by the need to raise cash to take a big punt on central London property.
As part of end of (fiscal) year rebalancing I added $ from the proceeds of reducing gold (gold up +20% relative to the $). Some of those $'s (a chunk was also transferred over to £ at around a 1.22 £/$ rate also as part of rebalancing) have since remained idle in my account as I had expected things to be worse than the -10% decline (in $ terms, -6% in £ terms) that US stocks have seen across Corona virus. As/when invested, as ever I'll just go with a broad US stock index tracker rather than single stock(s).
Broadly longer term, even just holding 50/50 US$/gold and yearly rebalancing would have offset UK inflation. The relative decline of £ isn't a linear type decline, is instead quite a volatile motion. Primary reserve currency ($)/global currency (gold) similarly fluctuate in a volatile manner. 50/50 hard $ currency and physical gold is what I consider to be a Jason Bourne choice, can be completely off the radar whilst (very) broadly not losing purchase power over time ...
Red line : UK inflation
Blue line : 50/50 yearly rebalanced US $/Precious Metal (in £'s)
Annoyingly you can't hold foreign currencies inside ISA, so that can mean having to multiple trade (shift things around between inside and outside of ISA). I do wish they'd change that rule, seems daft that you can hold foreign currencies within SIPP's but not within ISA's.
More usually, rather than sitting on hard $ currency, investing those $'s is more appropriate https://tinyurl.com/y9lb6hr5
I pigeon-hole 50/50 $/gold as a form of barbell, that converges to a central currency unhedged global bond bullet type holding https://tinyurl.com/y8qoye9e
that is less exposed to withholding taxes (more cost/tax efficient than a unhedged global bond holding).