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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
JamesMuenchen
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338812

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 7th, 2020, 6:10 pm

zico wrote:The excess deaths charts can't be matched onto the other charts, so I don't see how it's possible to compare them.

Cases are increasing, excess deaths aren't. Easy comparison.

And actually, what we see is that the epicentre moves around - always to new areas. Nowhere has really had a second spike of proper infections.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338832

Postby zico » September 7th, 2020, 10:16 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:And actually, what we see is that the epicentre moves around - always to new areas. Nowhere has really had a second spike of proper infections.


I don't think the virus is on tour, and packs its bags to go to a new region/country! What's happening is that the virus took everywhere by surprise (including the places that had plenty of warning) so there was a huge amount of initial infections, and now everywhere is aware of it so people are being much more careful pretty much everywhere. It is pretty clear that holiday centres (such as Spain, south of France) have seen increases, unsurprisingly in my view, because holiday resorts attract a mix of people from lots of different countries and regions, with a large proportion letting their hair (and their guard) down to socialise and have fun.

If you look at the cumulative deaths graph I linked to, you can see the first waves have all flat-lined now after their initial surges.
USA is the nearest thing to a second spike, where the graphs show they had got the virus under control, and then they just abandoned lockdown completely in many areas, and did it way too early.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338834

Postby zico » September 7th, 2020, 10:36 pm

Slight correction - when infected people pack their bags to go on holiday to see new places and meet new people, of course their virus also gets to go to new places to meet new people!

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338839

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 7th, 2020, 11:10 pm

zico wrote:Slight correction - when infected people pack their bags to go on holiday to see new places and meet new people, of course their virus also gets to go to new places to meet new people!


The Ballad of Barnard Castle 8-)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338859

Postby Mike4 » September 8th, 2020, 7:24 am

In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

Long covid is another reason not to catch Covid-19. People getting ill with Covid-19 and staying ill for extended periods of time is a feature not widely recognised, even on here.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338912

Postby sg31 » September 8th, 2020, 10:34 am

Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

Long covid is another reason not to catch Covid-19. People getting ill with Covid-19 and staying ill for extended periods of time is a feature not widely recognised, even on here.


I wonder if long covid includes those who have suffered 'permanent' damage to their lungs, heart and other organs following infections. I presume it must.

Bouleversee
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338933

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 11:31 am

sg31 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

Long covid is another reason not to catch Covid-19. People getting ill with Covid-19 and staying ill for extended periods of time is a feature not widely recognised, even on here.


I wonder if long covid includes those who have suffered 'permanent' damage to their lungs, heart and other organs following infections. I presume it must.


On World at One yesterday there was an interview with a Professor Ivan Tencheski (sp?)from the Uni. of Stuttgart who was claiming that everyone who had been hospitalised and recovered but at discharge were still suffering from lung abnormalities and breathing difficulties would eventually recover ("there is proof that the lung repairs itself"), after several months, though it was taking longer than with pneumonia and other viruses. He didn't, however, mention scarring of the lungs specifically (though it has been stated previously that some Covid-19 patients have been left with this) or state what the abnormalities were. Nor did he mention cardiac or other problems that some who have been hospitalised are left with. However he did say (prompted by an question from the interviewer, that coughing was only a problem for about l5% of those patients.

Pulmonary Fibrosis patients have been led to believe that there is no cure for the lung scarring they have so I am particularly interested to know whether his research has included Covid patients with such scarring and whether that has been reversed by any treatment they have received in hospital or after discharge. Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis is not aware of any such recovery. If anyone learns of any new facts about this, please send me a PM as well as posting here as I don't always have time to read all posts. I note that Covid patients are receiving rehabilitation and monitoring whereas PF patients diagnosed around the time of Covid have been left to their own devices up till now with all appointments cancelled. I'd like to think there might be some spin-off from Covid which would benefit non-Covid PF patients but wouldn't put money on it. I tried to look up Prof. Tencheski but couldn't find him.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338944

Postby servodude » September 8th, 2020, 11:49 am

Bouleversee wrote:
sg31 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

Long covid is another reason not to catch Covid-19. People getting ill with Covid-19 and staying ill for extended periods of time is a feature not widely recognised, even on here.


I wonder if long covid includes those who have suffered 'permanent' damage to their lungs, heart and other organs following infections. I presume it must.


On World at One yesterday there was an interview with a Professor Ivan Tencheski (sp?)from the Uni. of Stuttgart who was claiming that everyone who had been hospitalised and recovered but at discharge were still suffering from lung abnormalities and breathing difficulties would eventually recover ("there is proof that the lung repairs itself"), after several months, though it was taking longer than with pneumonia and other viruses. He didn't, however, mention scarring of the lungs specifically (though it has been stated previously that some Covid-19 patients have been left with this) or state what the abnormalities were. Nor did he mention cardiac or other problems that some who have been hospitalised are left with. However he did say (prompted by an question from the interviewer, that coughing was only a problem for about l5% of those patients.

Pulmonary Fibrosis patients have been led to believe that there is no cure for the lung scarring they have so I am particularly interested to know whether his research has included Covid patients with such scarring and whether that has been reversed by any treatment they have received in hospital or after discharge. Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis is not aware of any such recovery. If anyone learns of any new facts about this, please send me a PM as well as posting here as I don't always have time to read all posts. I note that Covid patients are receiving rehabilitation and monitoring whereas PF patients diagnosed around the time of Covid have been left to their own devices up till now with all appointments cancelled. I'd like to think there might be some spin-off from Covid which would benefit non-Covid PF patients but wouldn't put money on it. I tried to look up Prof. Tencheski but couldn't find him.


As far as I am aware there is no way to reverse pulmonary fibrosis.
If it's bad you can treat it mechanically in a way similar to COPD; essentially spending time daily on a NIV to help get the oxygen in for the rest of your organs.

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338950

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 12:12 pm

Servodude: So far as I am aware, there isn't either but if the Prof. is saying that Covid. patients' lung abnormalities eventually disappear, it could mean that he is talking through his whatsit and giving false hope to PF patients whether or not they have had Covid or it could mean that something new has been discovered and I am trying to find out which that is. There are incidentally 2 drug treatments which slow the scarring progression, which can be rapid, but they are not offered till a very late stage because they are very expensive and don't work for long.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338962

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 12:35 pm

Correction to my post 338933:

No idea why I said Prof. Tancheski (?sp.) came from Stuttgart Uni. It was Innsbruck.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338966

Postby PinkDalek » September 8th, 2020, 12:47 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Correction to my post 338933:

No idea why I said Prof. Tancheski (?sp.) came from Stuttgart Uni. It was Innsbruck.


This should be a link to what appears to be an old CV:

https://www.i-med.ac.at/studium/studierende/phd/mcb/documents/doc-funds/Ivan-Tancevski_CV.pdf

Dr. Ivan Tancevski.

Many recent articles naming him and others now online, such as this one (Source: European Lung Foundation 07.09.2020):

https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/covid-19-patients-suffer-long-term-damage.html

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338973

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 1:08 pm

Fantastic, PD. Many thanks. That is obviously the report which gave rise to the interview and although it doesn't deal with the scarring question it does confirm my view that the NHS is negligent and incompetent as regards the diagnosis and care of PF patients but that's OT here so I'll let off my steam elsewhere.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#338986

Postby servodude » September 8th, 2020, 1:37 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Servodude: So far as I am aware, there isn't either but if the Prof. is saying that Covid. patients' lung abnormalities eventually disappear, it could mean that he is talking through his whatsit and giving false hope to PF patients whether or not they have had Covid or it could mean that something new has been discovered and I am trying to find out which that is. There are incidentally 2 drug treatments which slow the scarring progression, which can be rapid, but they are not offered till a very late stage because they are very expensive and don't work for long.


The GGO anomalies (ground glass opacities) as have been observed even in some asymptomatic COVID patients should fade with time. That's where your chest X-Ray looks like frosted glass, but it's not scarring per-se.
As for fibrosis of the lungs though, it seems to be a sad physiological feature of humans that we can't recover from any damage effectively (it appears the lungs scar in an way similar to keloids on the skin).
As far as I'm aware I do not yet think they have a good understanding of the mechanism by which COVID is scarring the lungs; but that they do know various blood treatments, like thinners, seem to help.
We won't really know the long term residual effects possible from COVID for a while, and it would be quite easy to underestimate them just now faced with its more acute presentation.

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339054

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2020, 5:50 pm

File on Four is covering this topic at 8 pm tonight, comparing the treatment of those who have been hospitalised and those who have not but are still long Covid. It will be interesting to see whether non-Covid IPF patients get a mention. I won't hold my breath. :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339087

Postby Clitheroekid » September 8th, 2020, 8:21 pm

Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

It's 17% of cases diagnosed, not of all cases.

I suspect that millions of people have had CV but have suffered either no symptoms at all, or such mild ones that they never considered seeking medical attention, and they have therefore remained undiagnosed.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339091

Postby Mike4 » September 8th, 2020, 8:52 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:
Mike4 wrote:In a BBC report this morning ("Today" programme, R4 at 34 mins), they are saying we now have 60,000 people suffering from "long Covid".

'Long Covis' is described as symptoms of Covid-19 lasting for three months or more. This is 17% of all cases, if the Worldometer site is correct saying there have now been 350,000 cases diagnosed in the UK.

It's 17% of cases diagnosed, not of all cases.

I suspect that millions of people have had CV but have suffered either no symptoms at all, or such mild ones that they never considered seeking medical attention, and they have therefore remained undiagnosed.


To be picky back, the definition of a case is a positive diagnosis of COVID-19. All cases are diagnosed by definition otherwise they do not progress from being an "infection" to being a "case" AIUI.

So my carefully worded statement was technically correct.

But you are right, not everyone infected with the virus named SARS-CoV-2 develops the disease named COVID-19. Plenty are infected with the virus but don't become cases as you sort of point out. Few laymen seem to notice this distinction, mixing up the two terms indiscriminately.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339175

Postby tjh290633 » September 9th, 2020, 10:16 am

Mike4 wrote:But you are right, not everyone infected with the virus named SARS-CoV-2 develops the disease named COVID-19. Plenty are infected with the virus but don't become cases as you sort of point out. Few laymen seem to notice this distinction, mixing up the two terms indiscriminately.

This is something that has escaped the notice of the Government. The latest tightening of the regulations is based on a fallacy.

TJH

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339370

Postby swill453 » September 10th, 2020, 8:43 am

For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339405

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 10th, 2020, 10:46 am

swill453 wrote:For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.


GPS location and time information might be no bad thing: help you make a judgement of risk (e.g. outdoor vs indoor encounter). It would certainly help credibility if it identified somewhere I really had been at the time claimed.

And a framework for matching contacts where both parties exchange information, for the scenario "was it Tom, Dick or Harry"? The message to you contains a token that (if you ask) matches with any of their keys, but (respecting privacy) reveals the match to you if and only if your match opts to allow it.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#339429

Postby scotia » September 10th, 2020, 11:57 am

swill453 wrote:For anyone in Scotland, the "Protect Scotland" contact tracing app has gone live this morning. This doesn't collect any location information, or ask any personal details. Or care about self-reporting of symptoms.

It merely informs you if you've been in recent close contact with anyone who subsequently has tested positive for Covid-19. It uses the Google/Apple framework.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Scott.

Thanks for the info - both myself and wife have downloaded it.


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