#367024
Postby SteMiS » December 17th, 2020, 1:21 pm
Sorry I'm late to this thread, I don't realise there was a discussion here.
Here's what I posted on Advfn
"Looking through the prospectus, at the outstanding debt (inc XCCY Hedge counterparties), I make it $2,823.24m. The amount to be paid is $1,230m. That's clearly not 61c in the $. The reason is that debt includes letters of credit which will be 'refinanced'. These amount to $450m (although the prospectus continues to refer to the $400m in the original announcement). That $450m + $1,230 = $1,680 is actually 59.5c in the $ (round to 60c). The 61c in the $ referred to is from the original announcement.
However if the letters of credit are to be refinanced, then the $1,230m must be just payable to the balance i.e. $2,823.24m - $450m = $2,373.24m. That amounts to 51.8c in the $. Yes, the average is 60c in the $ but that doesn't mean the retail bond holders will get 60c; they'll get 51.8c. Actually it's worse than that because some of the creditors and hedge counterparties (I make it $74.94m) are super secured and get paid out in preference. Deduct that and you get 50.3c in the $.
If retail bond holders are entitled to 1.63 pmo shares, then at 20p ish, that's another 32p. Add that to the cash and you get 83p, which isn't far off the current price."
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I'm not really interested in shares in Chrysaor (even if I was confident I could value them) so, although I did consider letting my stock run until closer to completion to pick up a bit of interest, in the end I decided it wasn't worth the risk that the market came to the same view as me and sold at 77.2p net (plus a smidgeon of interest).