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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
GoSeigen
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#350980

Postby GoSeigen » October 27th, 2020, 10:59 am

zico wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
"No more lockdown" is not a new idea. It is what we have lived with for decades. Lockdown is the new stupid idea and I want it to end as soon as possible. I greatly resent not being able to see my close family members for the best part of a year for no good reason.

GS


So why don't you simply go and see your close family members if it's important to you? OK, it's illegal, but then so is driving at 31mph in a 30mph zone, and who hasn't ever done that?


Because I live abroad and they are in the UK and the border is effectively closed? This is a worldwide phenomenon, not just limited to the UK and equally stupid laws apply elsewhere. None of our family could attend the funeral of a close relative who committed suicide during the lockdown, not even her parents.

These restrictions are arbitrary and completely unacceptable beyond a very short, well defined and targeted measure (and subject to democratic scrutiny and control).


GS

langley59
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#350991

Postby langley59 » October 27th, 2020, 11:21 am

If the opposition to the lockdowns witnessed overnight in Italy, Spain and elsewhere grow then the authorities will have two choices, either quell them with even more authoritarian measures or revert to a more hands off Sweden type model, I sincerely hope they choose the latter.

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351006

Postby johnhemming » October 27th, 2020, 11:41 am

vrdiver wrote:Can you reconcile this with your views on seasonality/weather? Restrictions were lifted as the weather improved and more people spent more time outside (I assume).


The difficulty is one as to separating out the effects of seasonality and those of simple infection because of a lack of immunity. The restrictions were released, but because of seasonality infections did not go up until the seasons changed and the disease became more infectious.

Arguably if the restrictions had been released faster people would have got more immunity and there would be less of a problem now.

vrdiver
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351011

Postby vrdiver » October 27th, 2020, 11:45 am

langley59 wrote:If the opposition to the lockdowns witnessed overnight in Italy, Spain and elsewhere grow then the authorities will have two choices, either quell them with even more authoritarian measures or revert to a more hands off Sweden type model, I sincerely hope they choose the latter.

Or they could explain why the lockdowns are still necessary.

As GoSeigen has eloquently pointed out:
GoSeigen wrote:restrictions are arbitrary and completely unacceptable beyond a very short, well defined and targeted measure (and subject to democratic scrutiny and control)

If, for example, "the science" was able to publish a table of restrictions and their impact (e.g., close gyms, reduce R by x.xx%, reduce general health and wellbeing by y.yy%, close bars after 10pm, reduce R by z.zz%, cause w.ww% economic loss etc) then we could expect our government to debate what was the best mix of restrictions, review who was to carry the pain and push for targetted support to those impacted.

At the moment, at least in the UK, we have a heavy-handed centralized government that appears not to want to listen to regional concerns nor publish any plan on how to manage restrictions going forward. The current three tier system doesn't take us into the same severity of restrictions we had over the summer, yet there are fears that a winter season will make the problem worse than over the summer.

At the moment I think they are just trying to keep a lid on things until a vaccine is delivered, but that seems a risky strategy to me, because it's reliant on one key factor that is outwith their control.

VRD

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351037

Postby XFool » October 27th, 2020, 12:41 pm

Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest

The Guardian

Vaccine being trialled by Oxford University and AstraZeneca offers hope for all age groups

langley59
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351038

Postby langley59 » October 27th, 2020, 12:42 pm

XFool wrote:Proportion of people in England with Covid antibodies has fallen, study says

The Guardian

Figure has dropped by over a quarter in three months, fuelling concerns over reinfection

Don't worry the cavalry is coming...
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/stat ... 6787182594

Bouleversee
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351042

Postby Bouleversee » October 27th, 2020, 12:51 pm

I'd love to know how the Chinese feel about the fact that they were seriously locked down, with only one family member allowed out to buy food. Were they all livid and would they have rebelled given half a chance or did they accept it as a necessary evil which would give them the best chance of eradicating the beast quickly? Would they have preferred to have a jolly social life regardless of the consequences?

How long did the curfews etc. last and was it worth it? Their economy seems to have survived and although they now have a few cases springing up again, I gather they are all imported, or so they say. It will be interesting to see what measures they take to stop those escalating.

It would appear that immunity only lasts for a relatively short time, so till we have a vaccine which provides long lasting immunity or is offered sufficiently frequently, infection will continue to increase if we throw caution to the winds. How will that help the economy and what is the relevance of young people not getting serious symptoms if the spread of infection means that other people, including other young people, die from other causes because they are not getting diagnosis and treatment in a timely way because there are not enough beds, theatres, doctors, etc. available?

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351048

Postby XFool » October 27th, 2020, 1:00 pm

langley59 wrote:
XFool wrote:Proportion of people in England with Covid antibodies has fallen, study says

The Guardian

Figure has dropped by over a quarter in three months, fuelling concerns over reinfection

Don't worry the cavalry is coming...
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/stat ... 6787182594

Perhaps.

I cannot vouch for the following:

The Right Wing's Favourite 'Crazy Scientist' - Professor Karol Sikora

https://www.farrightwatch.net/2020/06/the-right-wings-favourite-crazy.html

But at least this is, possibly, more disinterested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karol_Sikora#Criticism_of_National_Health_Service

Oh. If only it were all so very simple! :)


Another one for the collection?

"This research was compiled by a financial researcher and fund manager who wishes to remain anonymous."

https://lockdownsceptics.org/covid-research/

Along with:

“It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.” – Mark Twain
Last edited by XFool on October 27th, 2020, 1:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

vrdiver
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351050

Postby vrdiver » October 27th, 2020, 1:05 pm

Bouleversee wrote:what is the relevance of young people not getting serious symptoms if the spread of infection means that other people, including other young people, die from other causes because they are not getting diagnosis and treatment in a timely way because there are not enough beds, theatres, doctors, etc. available?

It's relevant because some people have no ability to imagine the consequences of their actions. If "young people don't get serious symptoms" then it must mean they won't be affected by the pandemic, right?

It's easier to re-tweet vapid comments than it is to actually think, which sadly leads to the spread of ill-informed opinion presented as fact.

Perhaps I should be posting in "grumpy old fools" instead...

VRD


(For the avoidance of doubt, this should be read with a cynical/ironic/despairing voice.)

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351075

Postby XFool » October 27th, 2020, 2:50 pm

"I am Yeadon"

The 'campaign' is hotting up. Can't speak for the science...

https://twitter.com/Yeadoncampaign/status/1321078870657945600

Grassroots campaign to reconstitute SAGE hopefully under leadership of @MichaelYeadon3.
Seeking to bring him to the attention of MSM. Podcast below. #IamYeadon


David Kurton - 'Heritage Party Leader' and Toby Young are on board. So, Spectator here we come!

Really, I reckon all this ought to have been predictable - in retrospect. :)

Lootman
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351123

Postby Lootman » October 27th, 2020, 5:57 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
zico wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:"No more lockdown" is not a new idea. It is what we have lived with for decades. Lockdown is the new stupid idea and I want it to end as soon as possible. I greatly resent not being able to see my close family members for the best part of a year for no good reason.

So why don't you simply go and see your close family members if it's important to you? OK, it's illegal, but then so is driving at 31mph in a 30mph zone, and who hasn't ever done that?

Because I live abroad and they are in the UK and the border is effectively closed? This is a worldwide phenomenon, not just limited to the UK and equally stupid laws apply elsewhere. None of our family could attend the funeral of a close relative who committed suicide during the lockdown, not even her parents.

It may be a worldwide phenomenon but it varies a lot depending on where you are. In your case, if I recall correctly, you are in Australia and they have gone completely overboard there (and in New Zealand) in my view, by basically banning all international travel. That means that you are effectively trapped there.

But the UK and the US do allow international travel, and I have made 2 round-trips between the two countries since the lockdown started. Yes there were annoying forms to fill out, and a half-cocked attempt at imposing a 14 day quarantine. But the point is that if you needed or wanted to travel internationally, then you could.

So I think your main beef is with Australia overdoing it, and in that case I would agree that "These restrictions are arbitrary and completely unacceptable beyond a very short, well defined and targeted measure (and subject to democratic scrutiny and control)".

But other places have a more reasonable and moderate approach. And frankly I am surprised that Australians put up with this, since they are usually not known for their compliant and meek nature.

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351125

Postby XFool » October 27th, 2020, 6:04 pm

UK coronavirus death toll passes 60,000, official figures show

The Guardian

Total of 61,116 comes as deaths in England and Wales continue to double every fortnight

langley59
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351130

Postby langley59 » October 27th, 2020, 6:19 pm

XFool wrote:UK coronavirus death toll passes 60,000, official figures show

The Guardian

Total of 61,116 comes as deaths in England and Wales continue to double every fortnight

Don't they just love it...

servodude
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351168

Postby servodude » October 27th, 2020, 9:22 pm

langley59 wrote:
XFool wrote:UK coronavirus death toll passes 60,000, official figures show

The Guardian

Total of 61,116 comes as deaths in England and Wales continue to double every fortnight

Don't they just love it...

That's not the impression I got from reading it

sg31
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351169

Postby sg31 » October 27th, 2020, 9:27 pm

This may be behind the NYT paywall although I had no trouble accessing it. The research paper link is given at the end just in case. This maybe whay is causing long covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/heal ... e=Homepage§ion=Health

Some survivors of Covid-19 carry worrying signs that their immune system has turned on the body, reminiscent of potentially debilitating diseases like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, a new study has found.

At some point, the body’s defense system in these patients shifted into attacking itself, rather than the virus, the study suggests. The patients are producing molecules called “autoantibodies” that target genetic material from human cells, instead of from the virus.

This misguided immune response may exacerbate severe Covid-19. It may also explain why so-called “long haulers” have lingering problems months after their initial illness has resolved and the virus is gone from their bodies.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... .full-text

Mike4
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351181

Postby Mike4 » October 27th, 2020, 10:31 pm

sg31 wrote:This may be behind the NYT paywall although I had no trouble accessing it. The research paper link is given at the end just in case. This maybe whay is causing long covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/heal ... e=Homepage§ion=Health

Some survivors of Covid-19 carry worrying signs that their immune system has turned on the body, reminiscent of potentially debilitating diseases like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, a new study has found.

At some point, the body’s defense system in these patients shifted into attacking itself, rather than the virus, the study suggests. The patients are producing molecules called “autoantibodies” that target genetic material from human cells, instead of from the virus.

This misguided immune response may exacerbate severe Covid-19. It may also explain why so-called “long haulers” have lingering problems months after their initial illness has resolved and the virus is gone from their bodies.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... .full-text


Also, there is gathering evidence that COVID makes you thick.

Or more specifically, damages your "cognitive function" according to Dr Adam Hampshire from Imperial College, London. Discussed on R4 "Today" at 2 hours 52 mins in.

redsturgeon
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351259

Postby redsturgeon » October 28th, 2020, 10:02 am

For those of you who think Covid is nothing to worry about, some food for thought.

Our friend, a consultant at our local hospital notes that after several months over the summer with no Covid patients they now had 15 as of yesterday.

One of those patients is the father of my daughter's best friend, a chap in his late 40s, not significant co-morbidities, not overweight. He came to us for a Covid test on Friday, feeling OK but had had a fever a couple of days before. We tested him, he was positive. He received his NHS PCR test the next day also positive.

He is now in intensive care at the hospital. Please join me in wishing him a speedy recovery. He is the father of seven children and runs a very successful business employing dozens of people. The mortality rate once admitted to ICU is about 30%!

I have a friend I used to play poker with, a chartered accountant, late 50s and overweight. He ended up on a ventilator for several weeks, he came out of hospital months ago and has not worked since. He is still breathless at the slightest exertion.

Please do not underestimate this disease, it can be brutal.

John

johnhemming
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351271

Postby johnhemming » October 28th, 2020, 10:43 am

redsturgeon wrote:Please do not underestimate this disease, it can be brutal.

I do know people who have died as a result of the virus. However, that does not mean we should be unrealistic about the virus.

The virus is endemic in the UK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

It is also seasonal.

This season will probably be the worst season for this virus in the UK.

However, the biggest lesson is that people should ensure they take Vitamin D to strengthen their immune systems and also potentially zinc (for a similar reason)

In many ways the NHS should be trying to identify where people have a weak immune system and assist them in strengthening it.

redsturgeon
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351274

Postby redsturgeon » October 28th, 2020, 10:53 am

johnhemming wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Please do not underestimate this disease, it can be brutal.

I do know people who have died as a result of the virus. However, that does not mean we should be unrealistic about the virus.

The virus is endemic in the UK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

It is also seasonal.

This season will probably be the worst season for this virus in the UK.

However, the biggest lesson is that people should ensure they take Vitamin D to strengthen their immune systems and also potentially zinc (for a similar reason)

In many ways the NHS should be trying to identify where people have a weak immune system and assist them in strengthening it.



Both these two guys were described as "cast iron constitution" and "strong as an ox"

It is not just the old and weak who can get very sick and die.

I'd be interested in your thoughts of the method by which the NHS can "identify where people have a weak immune system and assist them in strengthening it".

With all due respect, that's a bit like saying the NHS should identify those who are susceptible to all diseases and help them avoid getting sick.
Hmmm, obesity, diet, smoking, alcohol, perhaps we should warn people, why hasn't anybody though of this!

You should be a politician...

John

langley59
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#351289

Postby langley59 » October 28th, 2020, 11:27 am

redsturgeon wrote:For those of you who think Covid is nothing to worry about, some food for thought.

I for one have never thought this and, as I have posted previously, consider myself to be at higher risk than average due to age and a lifetime of compromised breathing. However I do think that the reaction to it by the authorities has been disproportionate and has led to significant other health issues.

My best wishes to your two friends.


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