tikunetih wrote:...US market up >20% since then and broken out to new all time highs...
1. I'm guilty of sloppy language there and jumping the gun
While it's true that the S&P500 price chart has just had both record high daily and weekly closes, that doesn't constitute a "breakout", which are processes not events, and require hindsight to properly identify. That's not something that's yet occurred in the S&P500, and if it does indeed occur it could be months before we can state it with confidence.
2. It's worth noting also that the recent market advance has caused bullish investor sentiment to become stretched and bearish sentiment to be compressed, meaning that the "fuel" for further advances in the nearer term is becoming limited as "everyone" has already been shuffling over to the same side of the boat...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmqRUgIWEAE ... ame=medium
3. This all points to the broader issue, that of trying to second-guess markets in the short term, usually being a mugs game, and investors would generally be well advised to spend their time more fruitfully. Much mental energy is expended on micro-observation of markets and trying to see what might be around the corner (eg. 1 & 2 above!) even though the chances of reliably nailing these calls is low. It would be very nice to call each turn and always be optimally positioned but those attempting this are likely to find that the "perfect is the enemy of good", negatively impacting returns. Digression: On the other hand, strategies which are aimed at taking money from the people who are themselves attempting to make micro predictions can be lucrative! eg. spreadbetting firms, brokers, etc.
What's most important is simply to ensure that your positioning / asset allocation is (a) appropriate for your investing goals and time horizons and (b) appropriate for the general market environment we find ourselves in. Since your goals and investment horizons are likely to change only glacially, then the only real variable is the "general market environment". I'm of the mindset that this also changes much less than is generally perceived, with most of what occurs (and which causes investors to react, and chop and change) simply being "noise" to be ignored.
Things that aren't noise, and which require investors to take serious note and consider their asset allocations, are thin on the ground, contemporary examples being the Fed's massive intervention in late March (coupled with simultaneous govt's fiscal policy shifts) and also the Fed's announced policy shift in late August (rarely commented upon!) towards an "average inflation target". These two events may be the most important factors for markets that have occurred in years, and it may be years again until we see further such significant changes, with the corollary being that everything until that day can again be treated largely as "noise" to be dialled out.
4. "Perfect is the enemy of good" is a useful thing for investors to keep in mind. While it may sound highly unambitious I think that a realistic goal for an investor is for your future self to look back and simply say "what I did was reasonable and appropriate". If your plan and time horizons were sensible, that's probably all you need to do to secure a decent result, and it's an approach that requires hardly any effort - just some discipline and mainly inactivity!
NB this stream of consciousness isn't aimed at anyone in particular.