#382015
Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 29th, 2021, 4:54 pm
Thanks, it's a very interesting and detailed article. I'm about half way through it. Their pipeline has some breadth...
I will discuss the commercial opportunity for COVID later, but the next virus that Moderna is targeting is cytomegalovirus ("CMV"), which is about to enter a Phase 3 trial, after a successful Phase 2 saw the vaccine - which combines six mRNAs in a single vial - generate neutralizing antibody titers of up to 12-fold over the baseline geometric mean titer (GMT) of CMV-seropositive participants. Moderna believes that CMV is a $$2 - $5bn annual market opportunity (not to mention the humanitarian value).
Influenza (a ~$4.5bn per annum market), Respiratory Syncytial Virus ($3.1bn)("RSV"), Human Papillomavirus ("HPV") ($3bn), and Zika ($14.5BN) viruses are all in development, and it's the trial process, not the development process, that's holding up progress. Moderna is very confident that its efficacy readouts will be consistent with its COVID vaccine. Same process, same successful outcome, says CEO Bancel. Also on the pending list is Epstein Barr, for which no virus is currently available, and, in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, HIV. Truly breakthrough progress.
In total, Moderna's pipeline consists of 6 modalities, four of which are designated "experimental." The second "CORE" modality (after Vaccines") is Systemic Secreted & Cell Surface Therapeutics, which demonstrates the versatility of Moderna's platform.
The company has successfully been able create an antibody against the Chikungunya Virus, using an IV injection, and is working with AstraZeneca (AZN) on injecting the vascular endothelial growth factor ("VEGF") into patients who have suffered heart attacks to revasculcarise the heart, with profits to be shared 50/50 between the two companies.
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Moderna will address solid tumors with its intratumoral immuno-oncology candidates too. mRNA-2416, expressing wild-type human OX40L protein - which attracts antigen presenting cells including macrophages and T and B cells - has presented safety and efficacy credentials in a Phase 1/2 trial, with increased levels of PD-L1 and pro-inflammatory activity observed, and mRNA-2752 is being tested as a monotherapy and in combo with AstraZeneca's Durvalumab. A partnership between AZN subsidiary MedImmune and Moderna involving a third candidate, MEDI1191, also involves AZN's PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor. Another stated target is the lung.
Considering all of the above, Moderna's pipeline may look as impressive as any big pharma - the only significant omission being central nervous system ("CNS") disorders - which, in my view, makes a mockery of the argument that Moderna is over-valued at a market cap of $60bn.