As I described in previous posts there has been a strong correlation between the deaths by publish date, and the hospital admissions of some days previous. The Red Points are the hospital admissions, summed over a week, multiplied by 0.3, and moved forward by 11 days - And these are renamed as being the projected deaths by publish date. The size of the vertical bars are the statistical standard deviations, assuming a Poisson distribution. These parameters provided a reasonable fit a few weeks ago, however going back a few months, a 13 day slip and a factor of 0.265 provided an optimal fit. There was speculation that the increase in the mortality ratio between those times could possibly have been due to over-stretched hospitals, or the new Kent virus variant. However - back to the present and more good news which may be vaccination related - and which makes the 0.3 factor look decidedly pessimistic.
![Image](https://imgur.com/nI4ft4C.jpg)
The actual death rate curve continues to deviate downwards from the projected rate based on the admissions. Over the past week, a factor of 0.26 gives a much closer fit than 0.3, and the factor appears to be reducing further over that week. I'm reasonably convinced that we are now seeing the effect of vaccinations for the elderly in Care Homes. So Care Home deaths are substantially decreasing, without have a similar effect on admissions.
The Scottish vaccination program targeted Care Homes as the first priority, so I think we may be ahead of England in this category. Yesterday the National Records of Scotland (NRS) stated that there had been a 62% reduction in Care Home Deaths in the last 3 weeks. Looking at one of their graphs, and accepting that the data was statistically very noisy, it looks like the ratio of Covid-19 Care Home deaths to Covid-19 Hospital deaths peaked at around 1 in 3, but is now back down to about 1 in 10. However I should stress that this is just a rough estimate.
Source of the Scottish information https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/covid19/covid-deaths-21-report-week-06.pdf