UncleEbenezer wrote:servodude wrote:- but it's a really long bow to take those and extrapolate to "masks increasing transmission"
- sd
Of course! I was positing possible explanations. The evidence (insofar as any exists) is in the statistics, not in my observations nor in that picture.
We know covid incidences rose (from a low level) when masks became mandatory 16 months ago. I publicly predicted that.
This time, we have something closer to a control sample, with Wales having had the mask mandate all along. I'm offering another prediction. Let's see where we are in a month's time.
I think there's a huge risk of correlation/cause conflation thing going on if population data are considered in isolation (particularly with respect to projection on to a single variable)
- we have all seen how the data shows "lockdowns" are always be called just before the virus would have burned itself out anyway
- and how ghostbusters is deadly
- the truth is this is a huge and multi-dimensional problem with massively varying gains in the different variables/dimensions
Properly worn masks serve as filters - they do that - we know they do - in both directions
We know how filters work
- we know the type of filters that will help with SARS-COV2 (masks that don't aren't recommended)
wearing masks indoors properly reduces the amount of virus floating about in the air
- that's the same reason ventilation is recommended (that is "a good thing")
- and the same reason we isolate and filter the return air from a covid patient on an NIV
I have no doubt that the proportion of crappy mask etiquette makes mask wearing mandates/recommendations less effective than they could be (especially at the personal level for the likes of those that breathe in through the unhindered nose and out through their mouth
)
- but to make the situation worse (from a transmission perspective) overall?? - can't see it
- certainly can make it feel worse - suffering from stupid levels of hayfever the humidity caused by masks makes everything a lot more sensitive
- sd