#478277
Postby OldPlodder » February 3rd, 2022, 12:42 pm
I have been analysing my pattern of winnings for a while, and a very serious discrepancy is emerging.
I can prove beyond reasonable doubt that something is wrong.
I have a £20K BLOCK purchased in one go in August 1994. Basically, since the £20K limit was increased all these years ago, I have reinvested the winnings. As the percentage of these new bonds has increased as a proportion of my bonds, winnings from these new bonds have gradually increased, as expected. BUT from around December 2013, the percentage ceased to increase altogther. In fact since that date, only ONE of the many thousands of new bonds has won, which is beyond belief, considering that my broad overall pattern of winnings with the original £20k BLOCK is statistically OK.
On top of this, I added a good chunk in April 21, £12,350. The same month my wife added £10K. So far, my wife new bonds have won 6 times already, broadly as statistically expected, mine ZERO/ZILCH/NADA. This looks a little more than weird too, although it is early days on that bit.
My wife also has done WAY WAY better, consistently so, than me for decades despite the fact that for the majority of the time I held many thousands more bonds than her. No wonder if something is wrong.
If I assume that ERNIE is properly random ( this bit must after all be audited to death), my conclusion is that a whole lot of my bonds have never been entered in the draw through some admin glitch.
I am seriously considering presenting the whole data to NS&I, probably through a complaints procedure, but await a few comments first.
Plodder
PS I have advanced Maths and Stats knowledge (to Doctorate level and beyond).